REPLY High-Tech Company Dynamics (SD6081)

[David Corben david dsc-consulting.co.uk]

Posted by  "David Corben" <david at dsc-consulting.co.uk>
I am not sure that it is possible to model sustainability in the long term.
In the medium term it is possible to make assumptions about how existing
technologies can be incrementally developed. But it is not possible to
predict what disruptive technologies may emerge which will not only change
model parameters but will also change system structure.

When people say they are modelling sustainability what they are actually
modelling is the sustainability of current technology and inevitably if your
do this you get an unduly pessimistic view of the future. Malthus is the
first of many examples of this.

At any point in the last 300 years if you built a model of sustainability,
based upon the information available at the time that looked say 50 - 100
years ahead, then it would inevitably predict that economic and industrial
growth was unsustainable in the long term. It is a good thing that system
dynamics never existed at the start of the industrial revolution otherwise
it would never have happened and we would all still be farm labourers!

D Corben
Posted by  "David Corben" <david at dsc-consulting.co.uk>
posting date  Tue, 5 Dec 2006 18:19:28 -0000