Reflecting on a news item ...

[Stephen Wehrenberg]

TIPPING POINTS: Sardine fisheries, Antarctic ice sheets and Wall Street aren't often mentioned in the same sentence. But they have more in common than we might think, a new study has found - all three behave very similarly under pressure, gradually building up to a tipping point and then suddenly crashing. "What really captures my imagination about this is the fact that you get similar kinds of behavior across many different kinds of systems," says the study's author, George Sugihara at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Sugihara is especially interested in what happens just beforehand - financial markets, for example, start behaving erratically right before a crash. (Source: NPR)

Somehow I can't imagine that anyone at Scripps would not be conversant in system dynamics. "What really captures my imagination ..." If you (readers) are like me you are increasingly frustrated by the obvious situations where SD could provide some real insight but no one seems to realize that.

Sorry, just complaining. Must be a bad day.

Steve

[Bill Rathborne]

Stephen,

As a self confessed non-practising amateur, but keen supporter of SD and all it has to offer, I feel your frustration! However, when one reflects on what we see in the politics of celebrity, sound bites, and gotcha low-ball cheap shots as THE form of public policy decision making - re: healthcare reform, climate change, as two examples, one has to ask why an SD professional would spend the time and resources to develop "facts" that would never see the light of day. It is also evident that with disturbing frequency the political "discourse" is filled with a, "don't confuse me with the facts, it might deviate from my ideology", mind set. It appears that there is less and less enthusiasm by those in public office to fund "research" - of any kind - that might prove their ideology and the positions of their financial backers wrong, so public policy "debates" are conducted using the well documented tools of PR/Spin.

Up here in the frozen north - Canada - we have had the joy of witnessing political leaders stand up and actually say, "notwithstanding the scientific evidence, we 'believe'........ ", and empirical evidence is summarily dismissed. Nary a protest or condemnation is heard from the public. An illiterate public is a far greater problem.

So I would not be surprised if many folks at Scripps are well aware of a large selection of modelling tools. They may not be permitted to spend money utilizing them.

Bill

[Stephen Wehrenberg]

Bill,

Wow. Your reply provides a connection to another reinforcing loop that came across my virtual desk this morning:

Why the News Is Not the Truth
Harvard Business Review Article

The news media and the government are entwined in a vicious circle of mutual manipulation, mythmaking, and self-interest. Journalists need crises to dramatize the news, and government officials need to appear to be responding to crises. Together, they have woven a web of lies and have misled an increasingly skeptical public.

I guess these two structures together (tipping points and reinforcing) provide support for my usual conclusion:

"We're doomed -- just as doomed as doomed can be."

I think that was the catchphrase for a Martin Short character from early Saturday Night Live.

Can someone cheer me up?

Steve

[Jack Harich]

Steve the Wise Wanderer remarks: “Can someone cheer me up?”

Perhaps. Last week I gave a WebEx presentation to these folks that included this portion of a model:

ClassicActivismModel.gif (82.3 KiB) Viewed 2116 times

The hypothesis is that the higher deception effectiveness is (see upper right of model), the higher the change resistance ratio, and so the lower the adoption rate of the proper practices needed to solve the problem.

The presentation also included this slide:

ClassicActivismOutcomes.gif (35.86 KiB) Viewed 2133 times

This is strong proof of the apparent strength of the Forces Resisting Change loop. This slide really got their attention.

You quote the Harvard Business Review as saying “The news media and the government are entwined in a vicious circle of mutual manipulation, mythmaking, and self-interest.” The Forces Resisting Change loop is a simple expression of this vicious circle, though this version is highly simplified. However the article appears to be leaving out additional actors who have a strong interest in successful manipulation of the public and public servants: special interests. Also, the news transmits what special interest manipulators send it. The news doesn’t create those sound bites, press releases and staged "stories." It replicates them.

Need cheering up? The response to the presentation was the most positive I’ve had since I started this project in 2001. The research director wants another meeting in two weeks, and he’s inviting 3 more researchers to attend. (Of course there is the small matter of funding...)

So some problem solvers are beginning to see the light… at least in Australia!

Jack

To see a full image, right click and choose View Image, depending our your browser.

Note - On Sept 19 the model image was change from a partial one to the complete model, at the request of Bill Rathborne. Thanks Bill!

[Bill Rathborne]

Jack,

You are one persistent (stubborn?) old bugger. But I admire your energy to keep pounding on the door!!

There seems to be something incompatible between the SD Forum and my Safari browser because I can't view the full chart you have posted. Even when I downloaded the .gif the bottom portion is cut off.

I would REALLY like to send the link to your forum post to at least one - likely many more - groups and individuals, (that is if I can be sure it is viewable) and the presentation you made (if you are prepared to release it).

The tragic "debate" on medicare reform you folks are going through, and as an outsider - the sad spectacle - I am witness to, is a perfect illustration of your "resistance to change" model.

Keep on "pounding", there must be some sort of "Sisyphus" award for you!

Cheers,

Bill

[Jack Harich]

Bill,

Thanks. I’m in this for the long haul, full time since mid 2001. It is nice to see small signs of progress.

I changed the model image from a partial to a full one.

The PowerPoint presentation is at this page. Click on “PowerPoint presentation.”

The best write up of the System Improvement Process is chapter 3 in this book in progress. Only the first 4 chapters are complete. Ignore the rest.

Well, back to pounding away on the problem!

Jack

[Bill Rathborne]

Jack,

With regard to the shaded area in the upper right of your chart, (forces resisting change) last night (Monday, Sept. 21) on CNN - Lou Dobbs there was a "teachable moment"!

I have provided the link to the show transcripts. This segment is at the end of the show.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/ ... dt.01.html
INTRO TO ITEM:
DOBBS: "We have more tonight on a story that we first brought to you last month. There is new evidence of the negative impact of overpopulation on our environment. The biggest threat to the environment isn't, it turns out, gas-guzzling cars or power plants but rather having too many children all around the world. Casey Wian with our report."


It was "classic" - and not in a good way! The "message" boiled down to just 2 items.

As per the introductory comments:

1) - Gas-guzzling cars and power plants are NOT the problem (by extension one could read in the US "standard of living")

And in the report:

2) The unmentioned - for reasons of political correctness - overpopulation problem in the developing world.


CNN, of course, present this 120-second report as the FINAL authority on the question. No mention that in environmental circles that population is one component of the E=MC2 equation of environmentalism - Pop. X Footprint = Impact. Nor, of course, the well documented understanding that hectoring countries on population is futile. In the reading that I have done, in particular William Easterly's books on development, the KEY to population control is the education and empowerment of women. That is the message sent between nations and environmental NGO's.

There is an enormous amount of "positioning" media going on with, I believe, the intention of defanging President Obama as he heads to the December conference in Copenhagen. The more effective these so-called "reports" are, the more his Representatives and Senators are going to be bending Obama's ear saying that they are hearing from the hinterlands that the US had better not give any ground in Copenhagen because the problem is not in the US.

Like I say, a teachable moment!!

Bill

[Michael Fletcher]

Talking about Tipping Points and the difficulty they pose as well as potential for spotting them try the following recent paper in Nature:

“Early-warning signals for critical transitions.” By Marten Scheffer, Jordi Bascompte, William A. Brock, Victor Brovkin, Stephen R. Carpenter, Vasilis Dakos, Hermann Held, Egbert H. van Nes, Max Rietkerk & George Sugihara. Nature, Vol. 461, No. 7260, September 2, 2009.

I'm not worried that folks haven't "picked up" SD, even the people who should be aware of it in response to these issues, rather I prefer that people simply adopt a more systemic view in general. There is some evidence of this. There is a bit of good news in that some critical concepts needed to understand what is going on such as tipping points (critical transitions), and reinforcing feedback - concepts barely understood by the general public have entered the public consciousness. Even average people are starting to warm up to or even accept that systems can shift permanently, rapidly and dramatically. The bad news is that by the time this new knowledge is translated to action, the "ball" may already be rolling downhill. If that happens the prospects for any successful intervention dim dramatically.

[Leonard Malczynski]

Stephen,
I have some customers going out to Scripps in two weeks.
I'll send your post along to 'prep' them.
Thanks,
Len

[Jay Forrester]

This discussion implies that the so-called "leaders" should come to accept system dynamics and the results of modeling. But the big issues require policy reversals that are beyond the power of leaders unless they have a strong supporting public constituency. Therefore, the target audience for system dynamics should be the public. We need more books that build a strong case for change around rather simple models. If the the book is good enough, the issue important enough, and the public well-being sufficiently acute, then it will lead to solid editorials and public debate. The field of system dynamics is not addressing the important issues in a way that reaches the public--it can be done, but we are not doing it.