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Most users ever online was 133 on Wed Jul 07, 2010 1:17 pm

Call for Applications on the PhD Program in: "Model Based Pu

2289 — 2010-09-04T07:11:06-04:00

I'm glad to inform you that the University of Palermo has issued a call for applications for the International PhD Program in "Model Based Public Planning, Policy Design, and Management".

8 positions (4 of which with a scholarship provided by the University of Palermo) will be available.

More info at:
(1) "http://www.ced4.it/pages/struttura/main.php?sezione=-7&__utma=20380458.447058227.1283539232.1283586418.1283592498.3&__utmz=20380458.1283586418.2.2.utmccn=%28referral%29|utmcsr=europeansystemdynamics.eu|utmcct=/|utmcmd=referral&__utmc=20380458&__utmb=20380458&PHPSESSID=15498f0e12c990ff69b7d83ea8f6ee8a"

(2) "http://portale.unipa.it/amministrazione/arearicercasviluppo/formazioneperlaricerca/home/dottorati.html"

Best regards,

Carmine Bianchi
Full...

Statistics : Posted by Carmine Bianchi • on Sat Sep 04, 2010 6:11 am

I wasn't there, but the Seoul meeting was great!

5452 — 2010-09-02T14:37:43-04:00

I cam across this in my incessant wanderings over the web: at "http://dormgrandpop.blogspot.com/2010/07/what-one-hopes-for-in-professional.html"

Congratulations to all.

"Friday, July 30, 2010

What one hopes for in professional meetings but rarely, if ever, encounters

July 30th
The occasion of my brief Korean trip was System Dynamics Society Annual meeting. The Society meetings are what one hopes conventions and association meetings will provide - high quality papers, conversations with colleagues sharing common interests, an opportunity to make new friends and a remarkable sense of community.
.........

Even if you feel you have no interest in System Dynamics modeling or have never even heard of it, you should check out the System Dynamics Society website and even consider attending an annual meeting (the next will be in July 2011 in Washington DC). The experience will rem...

Statistics : Posted by Richard Dudley • on Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:37 pm

Research Officer System Dynamics, Palmerston North, New Zeal

3581 — 2010-08-31T15:16:48-04:00

Ecological Economics Research New Zealand (EERNZ), a research centre at Massey University, is looking for a system dynamics modeller with quantitative research skills to enhance the team of researchers and external collaborators working on funded projects in different parts of New Zealand in the areas of:

1. Urban Sustainability
2. Coastal Ecosystem Services
3. Freshwater Ecosystem Services (see "http://www.eernz.ac.nz").

A PhD in an area of research relevant to Ecological Economics is required. Demonstrated experience using systems dynamics software (STELLA, Vensim, or relevant modelling software) is required. Beyond model building, the tasks are varied and require the ability to work both independently and in a team, as well as across disciplines. The applied nature of this position requires an affinity for action research. The position will allow the applicant to develop the necessary Science Leadership skills t...

Statistics : Posted by Roberta Spencer • on Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:16 pm

Post-doc, Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health

3581 — 2010-08-24T11:36:58-04:00

Background of Organization: Organization Description: http://www.jhsph.edu/school_at_a_glance/index.html

Highlights:
First institution of its kind worldwide
Largest school of public health in the world
Receives 20 percent of all federal research funds awarded to the 40 accredited U.S. schools of public health
Consistently rated Number 1 by U.S. News & World Report
Students: 2,030 from 84 nations
Faculty: 530 full-time, 599 part-time
Research: Ongoing in the U.S. and in more than 90countries

Address : Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
615 North Wolfe Street,Baltimore
Contact Person Dr YoufaWang
Contact phone, fax and/or email Youfa Wang, MD, MS, PhD
Associate Professor of International Health and Epidemiology
Center for Human Nutrition, Room...

Statistics : Posted by Roberta Spencer • on Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:36 am

Mitigation Planning in the news

5993 — 2010-08-23T17:20:44-04:00

I'd like to draw your attention to an interesting Op-Ed published in the NYT.

"http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/opinion/23homer-dixon.html"

The referenced Harvard paper is also interesting.

Statistics : Posted by Michael Fletcher • on Mon Aug 23, 2010 4:20 pm

New eBook on business applications

2016 — 2010-08-21T05:01:25-04:00

I am pleased to announce publication of a new e-book - "Strategy Dynamics Essentials". This is summarised and updated from Strategic Management Dynamics (Wiley, 2008), and follows the same chapter structure.
The book is delivered as a personalised PDF - see http://www.strategydynamics.com/essentials, where there is also a full description and outline of the book's content.
The value of system dynamics to strategy and business management is explained at http://www.strategydynamics.com/info/what-is-strategy-dynamics.aspx.
Kim Warren

Statistics : Posted by Kim Warren • on Sat Aug 21, 2010 4:01 am

Re: Workshops and Courses

7318 — 2010-08-20T09:01:22-04:00

Online Gradute Courses in System Dynamics at WPI

Fall Semester Begins August 26

Worcester Polytechnic Institute offers online, graduate courses in system dynamics.

Register for a course by September 3 by contacting online@wpi.edu or 508-831-6789.

Courses offered this fall semester are:
SD550 - System Dynamics Foundation. Taught by James Lyneis
SD551 - Modeling and Experimental Analysis of Complex Problems. Taught by Khalid Saeed
SD560 - Strategy Dynamics. Taught by Kim Warren
SS590 - Health Dynamics. Taught by James Thompson

Cost of one course if US$3,477.

Statistics : Posted by Pamela Shelley • on Fri Aug 20, 2010 8:01 am

Publications

6681 — 2010-08-20T05:39:23-04:00

Folks,

I am pleased to announce the publication of my book entitled “Quality Uncertainty and Perception”. The book is published by Physica-Verlag, a Springer company.

The book addresses the complex issue of quality uncertainty due to information asymmetry in the backdrop of information economics, total quality management and marketing science. Reliability Engineering, Seven Management Tools and System Dynamics are used to develop theories on quality uncertainty and perception. Quality perception is identified as a multidisciplinary measure of business performance. The tools are developed to minimize quality uncertainty or to maximize quality perception. A few worksheets are provided for applying these theories to improve businessperformance.

Keywords » Quality Uncertainty - Perceived Quality - Root Cause and Failure Analysis - System Dynamics - Total Quality Management

Related subjects » Innovation - Technology Management...

Statistics : Posted by Lalit Wankhade • on Fri Aug 20, 2010 4:39 am

Re: Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)

11279 — 2010-08-10T17:32:44-04:00

well, again, aside from the difficulty of gathering a reference mode for such data, I'm not sure it is measuring anything useful. You could have a situation where someone is very interested in an issue -- be it gender equity, racial equity, environmental concerns, (or product quality, profit, on time order delivery) etc - and they may be taking many actions that reflect those concerns, yet in the system as it structured those actions may not be having any effect, or could be having an overall negative effect.

Statistics : Posted by Eric Stiens • on Tue Aug 10, 2010 4:32 pm

Re: Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)

6203 — 2010-08-09T01:10:30-04:00

Eric Stiens wrote: a few thoughts, and these might be venturing too far into philosophic territory so next reply i'll come back to tangible modeling questions I promise -

One is that in any model like this, I think "happiness" or "wellbeing" or whatever that great intangible behind why[why any economic growth at all? why any justice at all?] needs to be defined. The usual and often unstated assumption behind economic growth is that prosperity equals happiness and happiness can increase infinitely. I think rather, happiness is a scale, not an ever increasing quantity. In my opinion, A "happy" person today does not have "2500 happiness units" whereas a "happy" person in 1800 has "250" happiness units. I think that once basic needs are met, equity becomes a much larger part of the "happiness equation" than"prosperity".

What do you think about Maslow's model as a possible "scale" that is orthogonal to changes in culture/technology?

...

Statistics : Posted by Luis Gutierrez • on Mon Aug 09, 2010 12:10 am

Re: Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)

6203 — 2010-08-09T00:48:37-04:00

This is to let you know that I have just posted some corrections to the SDSIM model and user interface:

Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM) Version 1
General Description
"http://www.pelicanweb.org/solisustv06n08page1supp3.html"
User Interface
"http://www.pelicanweb.org/solisustv06n08page1supp4.html"
or
"http://forio.com/simulate/manager/luisgutierrez/sdsim-v1-1950-2200/run.html"

The philosophical issues are overwhelming.

Luis

Statistics : Posted by Luis Gutierrez • on Sun Aug 08, 2010 11:48 pm

list of ISI Jjournals work on system dynamics articles

12314 — 2010-08-08T00:05:51-04:00

please help me to find all of journals are working on[u] system dynamics TOPIC AND THEIRE IMPACT FACTOR
THANKS ALOT

Statistics : Posted by J. Hosseini • on Sat Aug 07, 2010 11:05 pm

Re: Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)

11279 — 2010-08-07T02:17:34-04:00

a few thoughts, and these might be venturing too far into philosophic territory so next reply i'll come back to tangible modeling questions I promise -

One is that in any model like this, I think "happiness" or "wellbeing" or whatever that great intangible behind why[why any economic growth at all? why any justice at all?] needs to be defined. The usual and often unstated assumption behind economic growth is that prosperity equals happiness and happiness can increase infinitely. I think rather, happiness is a scale, not an ever increasing quantity. In my opinion, A "happy" person today does not have "2500 happiness units" whereas a "happy" person in 1800 has "250" happiness units. I think that once basic needs are met, equity becomes a much larger part of the "happiness equation" than "prosperity".

I am not less happy today because I do not have a flying car -- however if I was living fifty years from now...

Statistics : Posted by Eric Stiens • on Sat Aug 07, 2010 1:17 am

Re: Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)

6203 — 2010-08-06T21:44:39-04:00

HelloEric,

About reference modes, definitions, and data sources:

At the moment, world population is the only curve that is calibrated to historical data, with 2.5 billion people as of 1950, 6.8 billion as of 2010 (based on the US Census World Population Clock). All the other initial conditions for levels are reasonable estimates based on various sources of data, but they have to be verified. Same applies to conversion factors and table functions. Some of the table functions in the social/human sectors are not based on numerical data, but on narrative descriptions of how people behave. Testing the resilience of the model to changes in these functions isTBD.

About "limits to growth" and externalities:

Excellent question. The primary objective of my work is to provide a tool to analyze trade-offs between investing on economic development versus investing on social/human development. A secondary objective is the analysis...

Statistics : Posted by Luis Gutierrez • on Fri Aug 06, 2010 8:44 pm

Re: Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)

11279 — 2010-08-05T14:57:03-04:00

Hi Luis:

I wonder what reference modes you are going to use to look at the period 1950-2010? Population, financial capital (growth of money supply), various metrics for pollution, etc all fairly straightforward to find data for. "Social Capital" much more ambiguous and possibly contentious. I am sure you have thought about this a lot - just wondering what data you were looking at when you started specifying your equations and table functions, etc. I see some of these questions are listed in your questions section....

But perhaps a larger issue, I am wondering[and I mean this in a friendly criticism way not an antagonistic way] what the purpose of such a model is. The basic conclusions reached all seem to have face validity[ie; we understand limits to growth, there is certainly a possibility that a very hard overshoot/crash would lead to a "worse" new state of dynamic equilibrium than a more moderate transition, it seems likely to me that "increasing social and human capital" in your terms is nec for a transition but also can be a result of being unable to maintain a materialist/consumerist paradigm anymore because of lack of energy inputs, etc][/ie;]...

Statistics : Posted by Eric Stiens • on Thu Aug 05, 2010 1:57 pm

Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM)

6203 — 2010-08-04T13:07:40-04:00

Another world model!

But the specific objective of the Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM) is to analyzetrade-offs between human development and economic development priorities .

I have just posted some documentation on the SDSIM model and userinterface:

Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM) Version 1- General Description
"http://www.pelicanweb.org/solisustv06n08page1supp3.html"

This is just a rough draft, but any comments would be appreciated, and I would be grateful if you forward this notice to anyone who might be interested.

If anyone has the STELLA software,...

Statistics : Posted by Luis Gutierrez • on Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:07 pm

Re: Economics is hard...

2016 — 2010-08-02T10:42:48-04:00

It's great to see someone argue strongly for placing more value on the views of people with deep professional training in their field, than on the opinion of uninformed amateurs. We unfortunately seem to be moving to an environment in which the 'belief' of people with no knowledge of the topic is given equal if not greater weight than the skilled working out of experienced technical experts, e.g. whether we need to act on climate change seems to be increasingly a choice driven by informal referenda carried out by the media.
But a question I would ask in this case is - how much does post-graduate education in economics actually include any rigorous training in how to tackle "a topic almost pathologically riddled by dynamic considerations and feedback eﬀects" - be that system dynamics or any other suitable tool?

Statistics : Posted by Kim Warren • on Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:42 am

Economics is hard...

11279 — 2010-07-30T23:34:49-04:00

Just wondering what people's response was to this line of reasoning from Kartick Athreya's essay/rant "Economic is Hard. Don't Let Bloggers Tell You Otherwise"[and the overall line of reasoning of the whole essay]

"http://www.scribd.com/doc/33655771/Economics-is-Hard"

So far, I’ve claimed something a bit obnoxious-sounding:that writers who have not taken a year of PhD coursework in a decent economics department (and passed their PhD qualifying exams), cannot meaningfully advance the discussion on economic policy.Taken literally, I am almost certainly wrong.Some of them have great ideas, for sure.But this is irrelevant.The real issue is that there is extremely low likelihood that the speculations of the untrained, on a topic almost pathologically riddled by dynamic considerations and feedback eﬀects, will oﬀer anything new. Moreover, there is a substantial likelihood...

Statistics : Posted by Eric Stiens • on Fri Jul 30, 2010 10:34 pm

Re: SD 2010 - Seoul Korea

11279 — 2010-07-29T20:58:09-04:00

Robert Eberlein wrote:Jay Write Forrester

sleep deprivation must still be in operation

Statistics : Posted by Eric Stiens • on Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:58 pm

Re: Licensing & copyright issues for models

5058 — 2010-07-29T12:05:56-04:00

Hi Ralf
The problem of openness depends on the consultant and his client and probably on his problem.
Some people feel that they will get more in return by sharing, some not.
I have worked with a consultant and if he wishes to use or modify the model for another client, he may do it, I do not mind, because I feel that I may have some small chance to get something back and no chance of losing something. He may even publish it, I do not mind. But it is a personal point of view, and I have noticed in my profession that one has generally more interest to share than protect oneself.
Regards.
JJ

Statistics : Posted by Jean-Jacques Lauble • on Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:05 am

Opinios about topics to develop with systems dynamic

12735 — 2010-07-29T12:01:51-04:00

HI,

I wish to know information about the following topics:
Dynamic SWOT,
Dynamic Balance Scorecard,
Supply and Demand of the sustainable tourism model,
Systems Dynamic model for Risk Analyst as one key analysis for the Information security plan.
System Dynamics as the methodology to find agreements and better mental models in the analysis of environmental, communication, water, property, land and education laws of a country

My objective is to do my investigation and develop of dynamic systems in theses topics

key link: Ecuador Life at its purest, your experience of life sharing with courteous people in the diversity of nearby worlds
"http://es-la.facebook.com/pages/Ecuador-My-CountryI-was-live-have-heard-will-be-in-Ecuador/133548023343324"

Best Regards,
Francisco

Statistics : Posted by Francisco Villacís • on Thu Jul 29, 2010 11:01 am

Re: Licensing & copyright issues for models

8781 — 2010-07-29T11:16:26-04:00

Hi there!

I like the questions Tom has aroused and especially JJ's comment on "why not open models to public".

My own experience, coming from the practitioner's point of view (working in the shopfloor arena of
BMW for a couple of years, which by its complexity has brought me into SD in 2006) is that sharing
knowledge in fast changing times as the one we are going through these is GAINING for all.

The knowledge about SD is still little scattered, especially here in the Eastern parts of Germany and
so a more openness and ad-hoc use of models to show either clients, for oneself, professors and
people interested in understanding and solving complex business issues will be a huge leverage point.

Even when one shares insights!

Am I right or am I wrong?

Cheers, Ralf

Statistics : Posted by Ralf Lippold • on Thu Jul 29, 2010 10:16 am

Re: SD 2010 - Seoul Korea

5463 — 2010-07-27T04:47:44-04:00

Just a quick update. The 2010 Jay Wright Forrester Award goes to Mark Paich, Corey Peck and Jason Valant for their book Pharmaceutical Product Strategy: Using Dynamic Modeling for Effective Brand Planning. Mark Paich accepted the award and gave the presentations.

Congratulations to Mark, Corey and Jason.

Yes sleep deprivation still prevails.

Statistics : Posted by Robert Eberlein • on Tue Jul 27, 2010 3:47 am

Re: SD 2010 - Seoul Korea

5463 — 2010-07-26T18:47:34-04:00

Too much to talk about, and not enough time to sleep. I guess that is both good and bad, but it does limit the amount that people at the conference can tell you about it in real time. I am also a little bit conflicted, because the thing I like most about conferences is just running into lots of old friends, so much so that the program and activities can sometimes take second place.

George Richardson opened with a wonderful plenary talk about the endogenous point of view (almost all the papers are up, by the way, athttp://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/current/tentsched.htm ). This was followed by a talk on eastern philosophy and systems thinking. Though I missed the morning parallels (that pesky talking to people thing), there was a great session on pedagogy that I managed to catch in the afternoon (I really like to listen to Martin Schaffernicht, even if I can't spell his name).

The afternoon plenary closed with talks by Khalid Saeed...

Statistics : Posted by Robert Eberlein • on Mon Jul 26, 2010 5:47 pm

Re: SD 2010 - Seoul Korea

2912 — 2010-07-26T11:05:32-04:00

Hello Seoul,
Bob, our Seoul Solidarity get together starts in a few minutes (probably 1 AM in Seoul on Monday).

Best wishes from a very rainy Albuquerque,
Len, Aldo and all the folks at Sandia Labs

Statistics : Posted by Leonard Malczynski • on Mon Jul 26, 2010 10:05 am

Re: SD 2010 - Seoul Korea

5454 — 2010-07-25T14:44:52-04:00

Hi Bob,

Thanks for the post... it would be great if you (and maybe others!) could post short highlights as the conference progresses.

Enjoy the conference...!

best regards,
Jim.

Statistics : Posted by Jim Duggan • on Sun Jul 25, 2010 1:44 pm

Re: Licensing & copyright issues for models

3297 — 2010-07-25T12:35:01-04:00

by Thomas Fiddaman » Wed Jul 21, 2010 10:25 am says:
“While it's fairly easy for consultants to retain their own IP, should they? Or would it be in our collective enlightened self interest to have more sharing? In other words, is the positive loop of cumulative progress on shared, open models, attracting more interest to the field, stronger than the positive loop of using revenue from retained IP to invest in proprietary model improvements? (I suspect that the answer is domain specific.) “

At the risk of sounding like the person that thought there was no more need for patents at the start of the 20th century, I would think that the models available from books, coursework and software guides can jump start anyone’s model of anything at this point, which if more valid than not implies that there is not much bang for the buck from focusing on more open source models to push SD use forward. Maybe more useful applications rather than useful models will boost SD use.

Maybe it is ...

Statistics : Posted by C. Michael Reilly • on Sun Jul 25, 2010 11:35 am

Re: SD 2010 - Seoul Korea

5058 — 2010-07-25T10:25:58-04:00

Hi Bob

It must be around Monday 1 am at Seoul, when I post this message.

One feed back that comes from the conference is the photos gallery. If you can make people conscious that some explanations with the photos would be interessant to add: names of the people on the photos, their activity, what they are currently doing etc... A simple photo with explanation is worth twice one without any. It is a question of ability to communicate.
Best regards and a happy conference.
JJ

Statistics : Posted by Jean-Jacques Lauble • on Sun Jul 25, 2010 9:25 am

SD 2010 - Seoul Korea

5463 — 2010-07-24T18:17:22-04:00

Hi Everyone,

I arrived in Seoul last night ,after a day of travel,and was delighted to start running into many old friends (actually David Lounsbury and I were on the same plane from Detroit to Seoul so I guess the running into started even sooner).

The SD conference kicks off today with the PhD Colloquium and the Society Policy Council meeting and gets in full gear tomorrow with the first opening plenary. For those of you who can't make it I will try to post some short highlights in this thread - I hope others will join in as well.

(Just a note on Time differences - I am posting this Sunday Morning, but the date/time that will show up on the post will be some 14 hours earlier).

Statistics : Posted by Robert Eberlein • on Sat Jul 24, 2010 5:17 pm

Re: Licensing & copyright issues for models

3671 — 2010-07-24T17:54:35-04:00

In my usual fashion, this post will veer off topic a bit.

My sense of the topic centers on uniqueness: what is truly unique in one's models? If we go back to Elements (simplest positive and negative feedback loop structures) and Molecules (those wonderful observations of Jim Hines), we could draw on chemistry to ask what is a Unique Molecular Entity? As I reviewed my work over the past 20 years, I found one or two formulations that might fit that description, an original combination of Elements to make a new Molecule. The rest are preparations made from Molecules and are, hopefully, beneficent.

I agree with Les Ormonde that most clients will concede that system dynamics learnt on the job is know-how of the consultant and that general knowledge of the client's marketplace is not protected information. It is time-series data and sensitive parameter values that clients wish to protect and that can be easily defined, if less easy to identify after an engagement.

Most of my individual e...

Statistics : Posted by James Thompson • on Sat Jul 24, 2010 4:54 pm

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