Abstract for: Long Term Role of Coal in the Generation Supply Mix

Eskomís Primary Energy Division is mandated with the procurement, development and delivery of primary energy in the form of coal, water, sorbent and biomass to Eskom power stations at the correct quality and the lowest price. Current global outlooks regarding environmental sustainability and climate change, as well varying opinions surrounding available coal reserves, have called for the implementation of renewable energy and low-carbon technologies such as solar photo-voltaic, wind and nuclear, which would represent fundamental changes in direction for Eskomís Generation Division from its business-as-usual production of coal-fired base-load power stations. This paper outlines a system dynamics approach based on systems thinking principles to develop a management flight simulator that provides senior management with a decision support tool to carry out sensitivity analysis on those driving forces that affect Eskomís coal supply based on changes in environmental policies and the generation supply mix over a time frame of 80 years (1993-2073). This systems based approach will support strategic and capacity planning initiatives aligned to a developing economy.