DRAFT
Proceedings of the
33rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society*
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA -- July 19-23, 2015

Papers, workshops and other materials presented at the conference are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author, chair or presenter.

These materials are networking tools for members of the Society, those who attended the conference, and the System Dynamics community more broadly.

The Conference provides a venue for presenting work and receiving comments that can strengthen the work and help to prepare it for wider distribution.

These web proceedings provide a complete record of presentations at the Conference. They are not intended to be a substitute for publishing in peer-reviewed journals, and some papers may be truncated or include only an abstract. The Society’s web proceedings do not have an ISBN. The Bound, Printed Full Set or CD-ROM of the Proceeding include an ISBN and those numbers are available from our independent publisher.

Readers are encouraged to contact authors or search scientific and business publications to determine if more authoratative and up-to-date versions of works included here exist.

To find a paper by an author who is not the first author, simply search on the author's name. Papers are Acrobat® (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat® Reader® software available from adobe.com. Supporting materials are usually archives or models which may require additional software (details). Links, when shown, were supplied by the authors and were current at the time of publication.

Papers

Aamir, Munaf   Human Futures: Investigating Resilient Policy in Egypt’s Agricultural Sector   Abstract

Abdelbari, Hassan with Sondoss Elsawah and Kamran Shafi   Model learning using genetic programming under full and partial system information conditions   Abstract Paper Supporting

Aguinaga, Eduardo with Carlos Scheel   Developing a Circular Value Ecosystem based on Residues and Wastes: The case of Higueras Village, Mexico   Abstract Paper Supporting

Akhavan, Alireza with Gholamreza Eslamifar   Effect of financial resource allocation on dynamics of national innovation system: The case of Iran   Abstract Paper Supporting

Al Yaquob, Amin with Kaoru Yamaguchi   Dynamic Feed in Tariff Price Adjustments for the Rooftop PV Market in Germany   Abstract Paper Supporting

Al-Sarihi, Aisha with Marcello Contestabile and Judith Cherni   Renewable Energy Policy Evaluation Using A System Dynamics Approach: The Case of Oman   Abstract Paper Supporting

Anderson, Edward with Kyle Lewis   A Hybrid Social Network-System Dynamics Model of Team Learning   Abstract Supporting

Ansah, John with David Matchar and Steffen Bayer   Modeling Ophthalmologists requirements for an aging population   Abstract

Armendariz, Vanessa with Stefano Armenia and Alberto Atzori   System Dynamics Updates of FAO Methodological Guide to Understand the Food Supply and Distribution Systems (FSDS)   Abstract Paper

Armenia, Stefano with Georgios Tsaples, Camillo Carlini, Vanessa Armendariz, Claudia Volpetti and Riccardo Onori   A Systems Thinking approach to the analysis of economic impacts related to transportation shutdowns: the ATTACS project   Abstract Paper

Armenia, Stefano with Claudia Volpetti   Analyzing the effectiveness of EU Investments in “Managing External Borders”: conceptualization of a qualitative model.-   Abstract Paper

Arthanari, Tiru   Why Do We Slip in the Bathtub? - Explanation of Stock-Flow Failure Based on Systems with Life   Abstract Paper

Atkinson, Shanie with Shayne Gary   Creating Value in the Merger and Acquisition Integration Process   Abstract Paper

Auping, Willem with Erik Pruyt, Jan Kwakkel and Michel Rademaker   A Quantitative Assessment of Dynamic Intervention-Capacity Effectiveness in the 2014 Ebola Epidemic   Abstract Paper

Bacaksizlar, Gizem with Yaman Barlas   The Feedback Dynamics between Poverty and Education Opportunity: Vicious Circle of Poverty   Abstract Paper Supporting

Baghaei Lakeh, Arash with Navid Ghaffarzadegan   Does Analytical Thinking Improve Understanding of Accumulation?   Abstract

Bakken, Bent Erik with Cecilie Mauritzen, Ingunn Sandaker and John Nilssen   Creatures of habit: Do differences in feedback concepts matter for shaping recycling behavior?   Abstract Supporting

Balaporia, Zahir   Managing the Driver Recruiting Pipeline in a Transportation Firm   Abstract Paper

Bastiani, Michael with Erik Pruyt   Adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in the Netherlands   Abstract Paper Supporting

Batinge, Benjamin   Sustainable energy future: A System Dynamics approach to solving the Electricity shortfall in Ghana   Abstract Paper Supporting

Batinge, Benjamin   The Effect of Information Design and Presentation on Decision-Making Strategies and Performance in a Dynamic Environment   Abstract Paper Supporting

Benaich, Hugo with Erik Pruyt   Exploring Traffic and Congestion Policies An Entity-Based Micro-Macro System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper

BenDor, Todd with Jurgen Scheffran and Nikhil Kaza   An Adaptive Dynamic Model of Climate Change and Emissions Trading   Abstract

Bennich, Therese with Tom Bongers and David Collste   Exploring Degrowth Pathways Using System Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Bildik, Yazgülü with Cornelia van Daalen, Gönenç Yucel, Roland Ortt and Wil Thissen   Modelling Wind Turbine Diffusion: A Comparative Study of California and Denmark 1980 - 1995   Abstract Paper

Bivona, Enzo   Understanding how Human Resource Knowledge Accumulation and Depletion Processes impact on a Service Firm Performance   Abstract

Block, Joachim with Bo Hu and Armin Leopold   Inclusive Green Growth and Sustainable Finance Through Ecotax - a System Dynamics Model   Abstract Paper

Boumans, Roel with Roman Joe, Irit Altman, Les Kaufman and Marjan van den Belt   Multiscale Integrated Modeling of Ecosystems Services (MIMES): Simulating interactions of coupled human and natural systems   Abstract Paper  Link from authors

Browne, Chris with Paul Compston   Rethinking intuition of accumulation principles   Abstract Paper Supporting

Campbell, Patrick   Effects of a Biofuels Economy on Maize Production in Ethiopia   Abstract Paper Supporting

Carter, David with Jonathan Moizer and Shaofeng Liu   Informing Secondary School Decision Making within a competitive market environment   Abstract Paper Supporting

Castaneda, Monica with Isaac Dyner   Disruptive Challenges in Renewable Electricity: threats and opportunities for utilities   Abstract

Cave, Siôn with Tom Lyscom, Graham Willis, Matt Edwards and John Fellows   Horizon 2035: The role of SD in developing a vision for the health, social care and public health workforce in England   Abstract Paper

Chan, Derek with Jeroen Struben and Laurette Dube   Addressing Equity Gaps in Healthy Food Access: A Meso-Level Model of Food Innovation, Distribution and Acceptance   Abstract

Chew, Vee Kuan with Nobuaki Minato and Masaru Nakano   Business System Model of Battery Swapping Management for Transportation Fleet and Energy Storage System   Abstract Paper Supporting

Chia, Eng Seng with Christian Hadi Wijaya, Felix Fernando, Athletea Widjaja and Peter Djasni   Is Travel Restriction the Answer to Liberia’s Ebola Pandemic?   Abstract Paper Supporting

Chinam, Srikar Prithvi with Lewlyn Rodrigues   Strategy Analysis to Control Emissions from Ships at Berth: A System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper Supporting

Chu, Jianxun   What are the Water Resources Scenarios in future? SD-based Water Resource Carrying Capacity Modeling in China   Abstract

Chung, Saras with Peter Hovmand   Unwanted Emotions in Adolescence: Examining the Effectiveness of Emotion Regulation from a Feedback Perspective   Abstract

Clifford-Holmes, Jai with Jill Slinger, Carolyn Palmer and Phumlani Mbulawa   Modes of Failure of South African Local Government in the Water Services Sector   Abstract Paper Supporting

Colander, David with John Harvey and Barry Armstrong   6:45 PM to 8:00 PM “State of the Global Economy” Fireside Chat   Abstract

Collste, David   The Paradox of Redistribution: A System Dynamics Translation   Abstract Paper Supporting

Cooper, Kenneth   Did System Dynamics Find a Cure for HIV? …And is that just the start?   Abstract

Crookes, Douglas with James Blignaut   Debunking the myth that a legal trade will solve the rhino horn crisis: A system dynamics model for market demand   Abstract Paper Supporting

Cyrus, Kaveh with Davide Aloini and Samira Karimzadeh   How to disable mortal loops of ERP implementation: A System dynamics analysis   Abstract Paper Supporting

Daniels, Silvie with Nele Witters, Jaco Vangronsveld and Steven Van Passel   A Methodological Framework for the Valuation of Non-Marketable Species Based on their Ecological Function in the Agroecosystem   Abstract Paper Supporting

de Villiers, Johann with Josephine Musango and Alan Brent   A system dynamics model of the individual decisions of a salaried employee in saving for retirement   Abstract Paper

Dehdarian, Mohammad Amin with Peter Racz   A System Dynamics model for the Cost Recovery of Residential Smart Meter Roll-Out in the Lemanic Area   Abstract Paper

Dill, Michael with Gary Hirsch and Emily Yunker   Local Area Physician Workforce Planning Model Pilot   Abstract Paper

Dillerup, Ralf with Daniela Kappler   Dynamic Risk Assessment on Innovation Risks in the German Machinery and Plant Engineering Industry   Abstract Paper Supporting

Dorani, Kiumars with Armina Mortazavi, Mohammad Amin Dehdarian, Hesam Mahmoudi, Masoomeh Khandan and Ali Mashayekhi   Developing Question Sets to Assess Systems Thinking Skills   Abstract Paper

Du Plooy, Corne with Nalini Sooknanan Pillay   Demineralised Water Production Planning   Abstract Paper

Duer-Balkind, Marshall with Kasey Jacobs, Burak Guneralp and Xavier Basurto   Resilience, Social-Ecological Rules, and Environmental Variability in an Artisanal Fishery   Abstract Supporting

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud with Kimberly Thompson   On the characterization of censored survival curves in system dynamic models   Abstract Paper

Duminy, Lize   Understanding the Boom and Bust Cycles of Ostrich Production in South Africa using System Dynamics   Abstract Paper Supporting

Eberlein, Robert with James Thompson, John Ansah, Nicholas Perkins and David Matchar   Population Health: Microfoundations for macrosimulation   Abstract

Ebrahimi, Maryam   Model Building of Manufacturing SMEs of New Energy Technologies by Focusing on System Archetypes   Abstract Paper Supporting

Edali, Mert with Hakan Yasarcan   Results of a Beer Game Experiment: Should a Manager Always Behave According to the Book?   Abstract Paper

Elsawah, Sondoss with Alan McLucas and Michael Ryan   Generic and reusable structure in systems dynamics modelling: roadmap of literature and future research questions   Abstract Paper

Enos, James with Russel Schott and Elizabeth Schott   Modeling the Chikungunya Virus: A System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper

Eromobor, Stephen with Dillip Das   Energy performance and Dynamic Modelling of Existing Building Infrastructure and Services in South African Universities   Abstract Paper

Farouk, Amr with Bob Walrave and Georges Romme   Why some small and medium enterprises grow and others do not?   Abstract Paper

Faryna, Oleksandr with David Wheat   The Danger of Float: The Case of Ukraine   Abstract Supporting

Fazeli, Reza with Brynhildur Davidsdottir   Energy Modeling of Danish Housing Stock Using System Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Fischer, Helen with Florian Kapmeier, Mihaela Tabacaru and Birgit Kopainsky   The more you see the less you “get”: On the importance of a higher-level perspective for understanding dynamic systems   Abstract Paper

Fisher, Diana with Christopher DiCarlo, Alan Ticotsky and Rob Quaden   Pre-College Student Understanding of Accumulations: An Experiment at a WPI Summer Workshop for Students   Abstract Paper

Franco, Douglas with Usman Ghani   Culture Dynamics   Abstract

Ganjidoost, Amin with Carl Haas, Mark Knight and Andre Unger   A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Water Infrastructure Asset Management   Abstract Paper

Garzia, Carmine with Gianluca Colombo   A System Dynamics model to explore Strategy Renewal Process in Family Firms.   Abstract Paper

Gautier, Marc with Dennis McGrath and Deborah Scribner   Improving Clinic Operations with System Dynamics   Abstract

Gaynor, Alan   Development Toward School Readiness: A Holistic Model   Abstract Paper Supporting

Georgantzas, Nicholas   Politeia’s collegial, high-technology spherical structure   Abstract Paper

Gerber, Andreas   Agricultural Theory in System Dynamics - A Case Study from Zambia   Abstract Paper Supporting

Gharibi, Mirmojtaba   Dynamics of Fisheries   Abstract Paper Supporting

Gloeser, Simon with Johannes Hartwig   The classical Cobweb Theorem and real commodity market behavior: Modeling delayed adjustment of supply   Abstract Paper

Gomez, Jonathan with Patrick Jochem and Wolf Fichtner   Energy Use and Emissions Impacts from Car Technologies Market Scenarios: A Multi-Country System Dynamics Model   Abstract Paper

Goodman, Michael with Chris Soderquist and Kathleen Clark   Using Systems Thinking to Shift Mindsets- A Fortune 500 Company's Multi-year Journey   Abstract Paper

Grace, William   Exploring the Death Spiral: A system dynamics model of the electricity network in Western Australia   Abstract Paper Supporting

Groesser, Stefan with Markus Schwenke   Boom and Bust Dynamics of Management Tool Implementation   Abstract Paper  Link from authors

Guevara, Jose with Navid Ghaffarzadegan and Michael Garvin   Understanding the US Highway System: A System Dynamics Perspective   Abstract Supporting

Hager, Gerid with Birgit Kopainsky and Progress Nyanga   Learning as conceptual change during community based group interventions. A case study with smallholder farmers in Zambia   Abstract Paper

Hansen, Jason with Jacob Jacobson and Mohammad Roni   Quantifying Supply Risk at a Cellulosic Biorefinery   Abstract Paper

Hartvigsson, Elias with Erik Ahlgren, Jimmy Ehnberg and Sverker Molander   Rural Electrification Through Minigrids in Developing Countries: Initial Generation Capacity Effect on Cost-Recovery   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hayden, Nancy   Conflict Dynamics and Peacemaking: Understanding the Security, Aid and Development Nexus in Africa   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hayward, John   Newton’s Laws of System Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Herrera, Hugo with Birgit Kopainsky   Rethinking agriculture of a shrinking world: operationalization of resilience with a System Dynamics perspective   Abstract Paper

Hirsch, Gary with Heriberto Centeno   The Puerto Rico Emergency Preparedness Model   Abstract Paper

Hoffer, Erin   Green Building Policy and Real Estate Development: A Causal Mapping Study Derived from Qualitative Data   Abstract Paper

Hoffmann, Christian Hugo with Stefan Groesser   Unpacking the black box of causality: What is it we assume with every link?   Abstract  Link from authors

Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha with Hazhir Rahmandad, Mohammad Jalali and Andrea Wittenborn   Estimating System Dynamics Models Using Indirect Inference   Abstract Paper Supporting

Houghton, James with Michael Siegel   Advanced data analytics for system dynamics models using PySD   Abstract Paper  Link from authors

Hovmand, Peter with Laura Guzman-Abello, Camilo Olaya, Wolfgang Munar and Mary Jo Stahlschmidt   The Capability Traps in Explaining the Capability Trap: Lessons from the Field on Conveying Generalizable System Insights   Abstract

Hubik, Tomas   Influence of Projects’ Size on a Professional Service Firm Performance   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hughes, Christopher with Mark Paich, Anand Rao and Aaron Tweadey   Modeling the Impact of Alternative-Fuel Vehicles Adoption on Economic Growth through 2040   Abstract Supporting

Inayati, Tutik with Takeshi Arai   Sensitivity Analysis of Government Policies Implementation on Mobility of Indonesian Students Abroad   Abstract Paper

Jaime Vivas, Ricardo Vicente   System Dynamics for a mathematical modeling approach in Software Engineering and Information Systems   Abstract Paper

Jalali, Mohammad with Armin Ashouri Rad, Oscar Herrera-Restrepo and Hui Zhang   Information Diffusion through Social Networks: the Case of an Online Petition (Dana Meadows Award Winner)   Abstract Supporting

Janamanchi, Balaji with James Burns   Four Echelon Retail Supply Chain Optimization-insights from Experimenting with Powel’s Hill-climbing algorithm in Vensim©   Abstract Paper

Jeffers, Robert with Kara Cafferty, Braeton Smith and Maxwell Brown   Simulating the Neodymium Supply Chain Using Explicit Dynamic Supply and Demand   Abstract

Jiang, Yimeng with David Keith and Matthew Doolan   A System Dynamic Hypothesis for the Disparate Alternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption Paths in Australia and the United States   Abstract Paper

Jimenez, Maritza with Carlos Franco Cardona and Isaac Dyner   Diffusion of solar generation on rooftops: A system dynamics-based approach in Colombia   Abstract

Jones, Charles   Approaching Resilience for Displaced People in the Congo   Abstract Paper Supporting

Kapmeier, Florian with Meike Tilebein and Roland Maximilian Happach   Bathtub Dynamics revisited: Exploring the engineering domain   Abstract Paper

Karanfil, Özge with John Sterman   Risk Perception, Preferences and Behaviors in Cancer Screening: A System Without Negative Feedback   Abstract

Katz, Stefan with Stefan Groesser   Dynamic Balanced Scorecard: Taking stock and looking ahead   Abstract

Khaledi, Hamed   A Generic System Dynamics Model of Firm Internal Processes   Abstract Paper Supporting

Khodeir, Miral with Hisham Abdel-Salam   A simulation model for wheat-related policies and food insecurity in Egypt   Abstract Paper

Kikuchi, Hiroki with Sathita Malaitham, Atsushi Fukuda, Guenter Emberger, Paul Pfaffenbichler and Tetsuhiro Ishizaka   Study on Impact Evaluation of Introducing Policies to Realize Urban Consolidation by Using MARS: Case Study of Niigata, Japan   Abstract Paper

Kim, Hyunjung with Michael Rehg   Using Systems Mapping to Inform the Strategic Planning Process in Higher Education   Abstract Paper

Koegelenberg, Talitha with Nalini Sooknanan Pillay   A System Dynamics Approach to Simulating the South African Forestry & Logging Sector’s Electricity Demand   Abstract Paper

Kopainsky, Birgit with Charles Nicholson   System Dynamics and Sustainable Intensification of Food Systems: Complementarities and Challenges   Abstract Paper

Koul, Saroj with Oluwabunmi Falebita, Joshua Akarakiri and J-F. K. Akinbami   Identifying uncertainties in the development of Oil Sands in Nigeria: An exploratory SD Model   Abstract Paper

Kubli, Merla with Silvia Ulli-Beer   Network effects in decentralisation dynamics of regional energy systems   Abstract Paper

Kubli, Merla with Erling Moxnes   Simulating the Capacity Expansion of Renewable Energies in the Swiss Electricity Market   Abstract Paper Supporting

Kuhlberg, Jill   Theory Development in Group Model Building: Progress and Insights   Abstract

Kum, Susan with Hua Wang, Zhu Jin, Weiai Xu, Janet Mark, Mary Northridge, Carol Kunzel, Stephen Marshall and Sara Metcalf   Boundary Objects for Group Model Building to Explore Oral Health Equity   Abstract Paper

Kumar, Ashish with Ravi Shankar and Kirankumar Momaya   The Bass Diffusion Model does not explain diffusion   Abstract Paper

Kunte, Shreenivas with Om Damani   Population Projection for India – A System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper Supporting

Labedz, Chester with Robert Schumaker, A. Tomasz Jarmoszko and David Freeman   “Two Subsystems of Eleven Elements”: System Dynamics and Other Approaches in Modeling Association Football   Abstract Paper

LaVigne, Anne with Tracy Benson and Sheri Marlin   Developing Understanding of Dynamic Systems Within Early Childhood Settings   Abstract Paper

LaVigne, Anne with Lees Stuntz   Behind Closed Gates: Potential Dynamics When One Individual or Group Is Given Complete Authority Over Another   Abstract Paper Supporting

Lee, Hanna with EunKyoung Yun   System Thinking Analysis of Adolescent Obesity   Abstract Supporting

Lee, Tsuey-Ping   A System Dynamics Model of Illegal Farmland Use, Pollution, and Land Value in Central Taiwan   Abstract

Leva, Antonio with Rita Vallerotonda, Daniele De Santis, Mauro Pellicci, Stefano Armenia and Claudia Volpetti   Safety and Health in Company Management. Towards a System Dynamics tools for training and policy making   Abstract Paper

Libby, Bradd with Alexander Christiansen   Building Resilience to Climate-Change-Related Disruptions in the Global LNG Supply Chain   Abstract Paper Supporting

Lopez, Luis   The Use of Temporary Workers as a Response to Work Pressure in Service Operations   Abstract Paper

Luna-Reyes, Luis with David Andersen, Laura Black and Theresa Pardo   The Seen and Unseen: Emergent Control and Project Progress in IS Integration Efforts   Abstract

Lyneis, John with John Sterman   How to Save a Leaky Ship: Capability Traps and the Failure of Win-Win Investments in Sustainability and Social Responsibility   Abstract

Lytvyn, Anton with Pervin Dadashova   A System Dynamics Approach to Modelling Business Activities of Ukrainian General Insurers   Abstract Paper

M. NajafAbadi, Mahdi with Babak Bahaddin, Reza Behnagh, Michael Deegan, David Andersen, Luis Luna-Reyes, Rod MacDonald and Eliot Rich   A Learning Science-based Protocol for Evaluation of a Sustainability-based Learning Environment   Abstract Paper

Mandal, Abhijit with Ramesh Pattni and David Lounsbury   Transitional Dynamics of the Mind (from the Yoga-sutra)   Abstract Supporting

Mandal, Abhijit with David Lounsbury and Ramesh Pattni   An Investigation into the Dynamics of Transiting into Alternate States of Consciousness   Abstract Supporting

Martinez, Noé   Nuevo Leon’s Public Debt: Analysis using Dynamic systems modeling   Abstract Paper Link from authors

Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio with Jessica Trail   Time-varying Correlation in System Dynamics: Causal needles in a haystack of correlations   Abstract

Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio with Nicholson Collier   A Tool for Enhanced Causal Discovery and Understanding: System Dynamics Modeling – Causal Miner (SDM-CMiner)   Abstract

Massote, Bruno with Jacques Demajorovic and Edmilson Moraes   Expanded Producer Responsability Model: An Analysis on the Brazilian Case Based on System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper

Matthew, George with William Nuttall, Ben Mestel and Laurence Dooley   Insights into the Thermal Generation Futures of Isolated Island Electricity Systems Using System Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Maurer, Julie with Joshua Hawley   Falling off the cliff? Increasing economic security for low income adults as the safety net shrinks   Abstract Paper Supporting

McAvoy, Sue   The impact of Australia's carbon tax on an unshielded emissions intensive trade exposed manufacturing industry   Abstract Paper

McFarland, Laurel with Emily Reineke, Bobby Milstein, Rebecca Niles, Gary Hirsch, Ernest Cawvey, Jack Homer, Anand Desai, David Andersen, Rod MacDonald   Systems Thinking and Simulations in the US Public Policy Community: NASPAA’s Student Simulation Competition   Abstract Paper

Medeiros, Josué with Marcelo Bezerra and Vitor Calife   Growth Engine Strategy Analysis Based on Lean Startup Approach: Case of a Brazilian Startup   Abstract Paper Supporting

Medeiros, Josué with Manoel Neto, Edmilson Moraes and Miguel E Moreno Anez   Building Information Technology Capabilities: a Case Study of the Development of an Integrated Management System   Abstract Paper Supporting

Meehan, Conor   Rooftop Solar and the Utilities Death Spiral - a system dynamics analysis   Abstract Paper Supporting

Mehmet, Sema with Hakan Yasarcan   Block Diagrams of Generic System Dynamics Models   Abstract Paper

Merkulov, Nikolay with Nasim Nezamoddini and Nasim Sabounchi   Modeling Graduate Education Management System Using System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper

MohammadShirazi, Amir   Proposing a conceptual framework for Iran and U.S. coercive relations   Abstract Paper Supporting

Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad   Constructing Local Stories for Global Insight: Detecting Dominant Structure in Forrester’s Market Growth Model   Abstract Paper

Momodu, Abiodun with Ahmad Addo, J-F. K. Akinbami and Yacob Mulugetta   Low Carbon Development Strategy for the West African Electricity System: System Dynamic Approach   Abstract Paper

Moore, Andrew with Kathleen Carley, Matthew Collins and Neal Altman   Social Network Dynamics of Insider Threats: A Preliminary Model   Abstract Paper

Morano, Rogerio with Edmilson Moraes   A study of the use of common resources by means of agent-based simulation, tragedy of commons and social identity models   Abstract

Morcillo Bastidas, José with Carlos Franco Cardona and Fabiola Garcia   About the use of delays in electricity market models through a system dynamics approach   Abstract

Morecroft, John   Asset Stock Coordination and Long-Term Dynamics in Love and Commerce   Abstract Paper

Morimoto, Hidetsugu   Study of reduction measures for abandoned dog population based on a dynamic model of household dogs in Japan   Abstract Supporting

Morrison, J. Bradley with Robert Wears   Resilient Capacity on the Front Lines: Coping with Challenges to Patient Flow   Abstract

Moulton, Allen with Farrah Tazyeen, David Becker and Stuart Madnick   A System Dynamics Exploration of Agency Theory Interpretations of ERP Acquisition Methods in DOD   Abstract Paper

Mukherjee, Atanu with Purnendu Chatterjee and Arnab Adak   An Inquiry into the Understanding of Risk Characterization of Mega-projects for Project Financing   Abstract Paper

Mullen, Tom   Helping executives with strategic decisions – building confidence   Abstract

Mulyadi, Lidia with Rhorom Priyatikanto and Takeshi Arai   How Bandung Smart City Policy Influences Its Citizens Quality of Life: I. Model Development   Abstract Paper Supporting

Musango, Josephine with Alan Brent, Smit van Niekerk, Willem Jonker, Aliza Pienaar, Theodore York, Juan Oosthuizen, Lize Duminy and Imke De Kock   A system dynamics approach to understand the implications of a green economy transition in the Western Cape Province   Abstract

Nagapurkar, Prashant with Joseph Smith and Shyam Paudel   Improving Process Sustainability and Profitability for a large US Gray Iron foundry   Abstract Paper Supporting

Nazir, Naila with Laura Schmitt Olabisi   Forest Area and Land Use Change in Pakistan: A System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper Supporting

Newton, Paul with Rod MacDonald, Suzanne Riney, Frank Rasor, Mary Roux-Zink, Neil Roberts, Richard Bierlein and Eric Garday   Operator confidence in models: comparing two business examples   Abstract Paper Supporting

Noh, YoungMin with Chang Kim and EunKyoung Yun   A Predictive Model of Prediabetics’ Awareness of Diabetes Education and its Effects in the Republic of Korea   Abstract Paper Supporting

North, Michael with Pamela Sydelko and Ignacio Martinez-Moyano   Structurally Evolving System Dynamics Models Using Genetic Algorithms   Abstract Paper

Ntsoane, Mapule with Nalini Sooknanan Pillay and Danie Booyens   Hydro Pumped Storage Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Odenthal, Megan with Nancy Zoellner, Saras Chung, Jill Kuhlberg and Peter Hovmand   Transforming Race 2015: How System Dynamics is Helping to Shape the Response to Ferguson, MO   Abstract

Onsel, Nisa with Yaman Barlas   Financial Sustainability of Health Systems Dominated by Private Health Insurance   Abstract

Orefice, Rogerio with Edmilson Moraes   SYSTEM DYNAMICS A bibliometric analysis of System Dynamics Review   Abstract Paper

Ozgun, Onur with Matthias Ruth, Casper Harteveld and Binita KC   Dynamics of Urban Warming: How Human-Environment Interaction Creates Urban Heat Islands?   Abstract Paper

Paich, Mark with Pia Ramchandani and Rachel Rho   Applications of Calibration Techniques to Dynamic Models   Abstract

Palma, Anton with David Lounsbury, Nicolas Schlecht and Ilir Agalliu   A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer   Abstract Paper

Palmer, Erika   Beyond Proximity: Consequentialist Ethics and System Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Paricio, Ignacio with Jorge Figal   A System Dynamics Model of the Kidney Transplants in the U.S.   Abstract Paper Supporting

Paul, Siddhartha with Jayendran Venkateswaran   Impact of Production-Inventory Control on the Dynamics of Epidemics   Abstract Paper

Peterson, Sara   Understanding the dynamics of Ebola transmission using a simple dynamic model   Abstract Supporting

Peterson, Steve   Supply Chains as Catalysts for Sustained Systemic Change: Groundnuts and Aflatoxins in Malawi   Abstract

Piamou Djamengo, Michel Douglas with Pascaux Smala Fanokoa   System Dynamics Modeling of impacts of Central African Republic refugees in Eastern Cameroon   Abstract Paper Supporting

Potash, P. Jeffrey with Jennifer Andersen and Lees Stuntz   Population Dynamics in History: Connecting Past, Present, and Future   Abstract Paper Supporting  Link from authors

Pourmasoumi Langarudi, Saeed with Michael Radzicki   A Simulation Model of Katouzian’s Theory of Arbitrary State and Society   Abstract Paper Supporting

Pruyt, Erik with Willem Auping, Jan Kwakkel and Wil Thissen   Better Robustly Right than Accurately Wrong   Abstract Paper

Pruyt, Erik with Stefano Armenia, Riccardo Onori, Arije Antinori and Georgios Tsaples   Fighting Foreign Fighters. But What About Potential and Returning Foreign Fighters?   Abstract Paper

Pruyt, Erik   The Ebola Outbreak in West Africa: Important Lessons about Modeling and Simulating Uncertain Dynamic Issues   Abstract Paper

Pruyt, Erik with Bert Enserink and Wil Thissen   From Teaching System Dynamics Towards Total Immersion in Advanced Model-Based Policy Analysis   Abstract Paper

Pruyt, Erik   From Modelling Uncertain Surprises to Simulating Black Swans   Abstract Paper

Qureshi, Muhammad Azeem with John Ansah   Farm to Fork: Fritter overlooked and its impacts   Abstract Paper

Qureshi, Muhammad Azeem with Basit Rizwan and Umar Burki   Conceptualizing Capital Flight: A Systems Perspective   Abstract Paper

Rafieisakhaei, Mohammadhussein with Babak Barazandeh, Mahdi Boloursaz Mashhadi and Seyed Mohammad Asadzadeh   Modeling Dynamics of Expectations on Global Oil Price   Abstract Paper

Rahmandad, Hazhir with Nelson Repenning and Rebecca Henderson   Making the Numbers? "Short termism" and the Puzzle of only occasional disaster   Abstract Supporting

Rahmandad, Hazhir with Nelson Repenning   Capability Erosion Dynamics   Abstract

Rissman, Jeffrey   A Model of Energy Policy Impacts on Pollutant Emissions, Costs, and Social Benefits Developed for China’s Central Government   Abstract Paper Supporting

Rodriguez, Luz-Angelica   Product Policy Impact in the Lifecycle of Light Bulbs Through System Dynamics   Abstract Paper Supporting

Rosenberg, Zuzana with Tobias Riasanow and Helmut Krcmar   A System Dynamics Model for Business Process Change Projects   Abstract Paper

Ryder, William   A Simulation Game to Promote Systems Thinking and Cross Organizational Collaboration in Government Agencies   Abstract Paper Supporting

Ryzhenkov, Alexander   An Enhancement for the Textbook’s Models of Natural Resources and Economic Growth   Abstract Paper Supporting

Sadeghipour, Maryam with Peyman Shariatpanahi, Afshin Jafari, Navid Ghaffarzadegan, Mohammad Hosien Khoshnevisan and Arezoo Ebne Ahmadi   Modelling a collective health behaviour in a social network: The case of dental routine visiting   Abstract Paper

Saeed, Khalid with Keith Harris, Adam Ruege, Lisa Pape and Midhilesh Mulpuri   Endogenous limits and bottlenecks in the absence of explicit capacity constraints   Abstract Paper

Saiyed, Zahraa   Disaster Debris Management and Recovery for Housing Stock in San Francisco, CA   Abstract Paper Supporting

Sapol, Stephen with Bruce Keith   Using System Dynamics to Train Army Leaders   Abstract Supporting

Sato, Jeremy with Nishesh Chalise, Peter Hovmand, Nancy Zoellner, Kenneth Carson and Andrew Brown   Birth Cohorts Approach to Modeling Aging Populations   Abstract Paper Supporting

Saxena, Alark with Burak Guneralp, Robert Bailis, Chadwick Dearing Oliver and Gary Yohe   Modeling livelihood strategies of local communities in central India   Abstract Supporting

Saysel, Ali   Living Within the Planetary Capacity: A Dynamic Feedback Approach   Abstract Paper

Schaffernicht, Martin with Stefan Groesser   Capturing Managerial Cognition in Chilean Wineries: Hardening a New Method to Elicit and Code Mental Models of Dynamic Systems   Abstract

Scheufler, Eckhard with Peter Lacey   System Dynamics in New Product Forecasting: Collaborative Use of Patient Based Forecast Model for an Oncology Drug   Abstract Paper

Schwarz, Philipp with Sebastiaan Fakkert and Erik Pruyt   Kidney transplantations in the United States: A System Dynamics approach to reduce the waiting list and illegal trafficking   Abstract Paper Supporting

Schweiger, Sylvia with Hendrik Stouten and Inge Bleijenbergh   Organizational Change, Resistance to Change and Participatory Strategies: A Feedback Perspective   Abstract Paper

Shao, Cecelia   Modeling the Threat of ISIS in the Context of Modern Terrorism   Abstract Supporting

Sharareh, Nasser with Nasim Sabounchi   Fear as Contagion: the Ebola Crisis and Public Fear Networks A System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper

Skarin, Bruce with Jamie Melhuish   U.S. Campaign Finance and Institutional Corruption in Public Policy   Abstract Paper Supporting

Soto-Torres, M. Dolores with Ramon Fernandez-Lechon and Pedro Fernandez Soto   The Internet as source of herding behavior: Exploring consequences in financial markets   Abstract Paper Supporting

Spicer, Jacynta   Representation and Dynamic Implications of Mental Models of Food Systems   Abstract Paper

Stave, Krystyna with Birgit Kopainsky   A system dynamics framework to promote sustainability in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia social-ecological system   Abstract

Steinhilber, Conrad   The Maize Value Chain in Zambia: Dynamics and Resilience Towards Production Shocks   Abstract Paper Supporting

Stelmashenko, Iaroslava with Iryna Lukianenko and David Wheat   Learning Economics with Dynamic Modeling. A Norwegian-Ukrainian Collaboration Project.   Abstract Paper

Sugiyama, Takehiro with Sayuri Goryoda, Kaori Inoue, Noriko Sugiyama-Ihana and Nobuo Nishi   Simulation Model of Diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy-induced Dialysis in Japan through 2022: Evaluation of Possible Strategies   Abstract Paper Supporting

Susanto, Eddy with Lukas Sihombing   Integrated Project Delivery Using System Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Tadesse, Aklilu Tilahun   Impact of engineering process on construction cost of HVDC offshore wind energy converter station: a system dynamics approach   Abstract Paper

Takahashi, Yutaka   Management of Public Procurement of Information System   Abstract Paper Supporting

Tao, Mingzhe with Mahdi M. NajafAbadi, William Augustine, Babak Bahaddin, Felippe Cronemberger, Katrina Hull, James Houghton, Smita Sharma, Jack Homer, Eliot Rich   A Multi-Method Approach to Advanced Data Analytics: Diabetes Geodynamic Information System   Abstract

Thompson, Kimberly with Radboud Duintjer Tebbens and Kasper Kisjes   Characterization of the impacts of heterogeneity in high-risk populations for infectious disease transmission: Modeling polio a   Abstract Paper

Torres, Juan with Martin Kunc   Supporting Strategy using System Dynamics   Abstract

Turner, Benjamin with Vincent Tidwell   Developing a System Dynamics model to investigate sustainability of traditional acequia communities of New Mexico   Abstract Paper Supporting

Turner, Benjamin with Vincent Tidwell   Model evaluation and sensitivity analyses of an acequia community irrigation system dynamics model   Abstract Paper Supporting

van Waas, Rob with Jill Slinger and Sander van Splunter   Using a System Dynamics Model as a Boundary Object in an Integrative Approach to Regional Water Schemes in South Africa   Abstract Paper Supporting

Vierhaus, Ingmar with Armin Fugenschuh   Global and Local Control of a Resource Utilization Model   Abstract Paper

Vimmerstedt, Laura with Steve Peterson and Brian Bush   Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States   Abstract Paper Supporting  Link from authors

Voyer, John with Andrea Cahill, Kathryn Laustsen and Benjamin Philbrick   Information Technology: System Dynamics Modeling of an IT Major Incident Resolution Process   Abstract Paper Supporting

Voyer, John with Anya Cornell, Carl Lolar and Joseph Albert   Controlling the Black Bear Population in Maine   Abstract Paper Supporting

Voyer, John with Matthew Dean and Christopher Pickles   Understanding Humanitarian Supply Chain Logistics with System Dynamics Modeling   Abstract Paper Supporting

Wakeland, Wayne   Prediction--the Quintessential Policy Model Validation Test   Abstract Paper Supporting

Wang, Keming   Improving Services to Hospital Outpatient Clinics   Abstract Paper Supporting

Ward, Robert with James Houghton and Ivan Perl   SDXchange: Stand-alone Translators to Enable XMILE Model Adaptation, Transportation, and Exchange   Abstract

Warren, Kim   Repeatable Solutions: the Case of Elderly-Care Provision   Abstract Paper

Wheat, David with Eugene Bardach   Public Policy Implementation Modeling: The Classic Case of EDA in Oakland   Abstract

Yamaguchi, Kaoru with Yokei Yamaguchi   ASD Macroeconomic Model of Japan on the Flow of Funds and National Accounts - Report on its Early Stage Development   Abstract Paper

Yamashita, Takayuki   Exchange Rates and Reshoring   Abstract Paper Supporting

Yang, Miles with Shayne Gary and Tim Coltman   Do Stretch Goals Increase or Reduce Investments in Disruptive Innovations?   Abstract

Yehia, Ahmed with Mohamed Saleh, Ayman Taha and Hisham El-Shishiny   Measuring Eigenvalues’ Sensitivities via Kernel Canonical Correlation Analysis   Abstract Paper

Yun, EunKyoung with Hanna Lee, EunSuk Park and Jaekook Yu   The Nonlinear Simulation of adolescent Obesity Using System Dynamics   Abstract Supporting

Zapata Ramirez, Sebastián with Isaac Dyner   Clean and secure power supply: SD-based appraisal of risks, opportunities and challenges   Abstract

Zarghami, Mahdi with Mohammad Amir Rahmani   Toward Effective Water Diplomacy by Using System Dynamics: Case Study   Abstract Paper

Zawedde, Aminah with Ddembe Williams   The Complexity in Requirements Process Improvement   Abstract

Zhuang, Yilin with Qiong Zhang   Exploring Water-Energy Nexus towards Integrated Water and Energy Management   Abstract

Zimmermann, Nicole with Laura Black, Clive Shrubsole and Michael Davies   Meaning-making in the process of participatory system dynamics research   Abstract Paper



Workshops

Bean, Michael   Creating Interactive Simulations on the Web with Forio Epicenter   Abstract

Eberlein, Robert with William Schoenberg   Getting Started with Stella Professional   Abstract

Eberlein, Robert with William Schoenberg   Using modules and arrays with Stella Professional   Abstract

Ferencik, Rachel with Chris Soderquist   Tips and Techniques for Harnessing the Power of Stock and Flow Thinking: Lessons learned from our work with policymakers   Abstract

Fiddaman, Thomas with Larry Yeager   Entity-based System Dynamics with Ventity I   Abstract  Link from authors

Fiddaman, Thomas with Larry Yeager   Vensim Calibration and Markov Chain Monte Carlo   Abstract  Link from authors

Fiddaman, Thomas with Larry Yeager   Entity-based System Dynamics with Ventity II   Abstract  Link from authors

Fiddaman, Thomas with Larry Yeager   Introduction to Vensim   Abstract  Link from authors

Fisher, Diana   Teaching Students to Create Original Models in a Ten-Week Course   Abstract

Fisher, Diana   Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling for Math and Science Instruction: Online Professional Development Opportunity   Abstract

Gambardella, Pascal with David Lounsbury   Modeling Psychological and Sociological Dynamics   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hovmand, Peter with Etiënne Rouwette   Scriptapedia: Introduction to “Scripted” Group Model Building Workshops   Abstract

Luna-Reyes, Luis with Eliot Rich   Developing a Multi-Method Modeling Approach to Advanced Data Analytics in SD   Abstract

Malczynski, Leonard   Getting Started with Powersim Studio   Abstract Supporting  Link from authors

Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio   System Dynamics Model Documentation and Assessment Tool (SDM-Doc)   Abstract  Link from authors

Morecroft, John   Long-Term Dynamics and Enduring Feedback Structure in Love and Supply Chains   Abstract

Rissman, Jeffrey   Hands-On Modeling United States Energy Policy: Achieving Emissions Targets and Exploring Scenarios   Abstract Paper Supporting

Sterman, John with Andrew Jones and Florian Kapmeier   World Climate and C-ROADS Training   Abstract  Link from authors

Trailer, Jeff   Using a Customer Pipeline Model: a hands-on simulation exercise and including feedback from students in a university course   Abstract Supporting

Warren, Kim   Agile SD - fast, reliable, effective   Abstract Paper Supporting

Warren, Kim   Getting started with the new (2015) Sysdea online software   Abstract



Other Presentations and Events

Andersen, David with Robert Eberlein, Andrew Ford, Peter Milling and Roberta Spencer   Outstanding Service Award Announcement   Abstract Citation by Bob Eberlein  Link to award information

Armenia, Stefano   SYstem Dynamics Italian Chapter (SYDIC) Annual Meeting   Abstract

Cavana, Robert with Anson Li   Australasia Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Chu, Jianxun   China Chapter Meeting   Abstract

Fiddaman, Thomas with Richard Dudley, Özge Pala, John Sterman, Florian Kapmeier, R. Joel Rahn and Krystyna Stave   Dana Meadows Award Announcement   Abstract Citation by Tom Fiddaman  Link to award information

Gambardella, Pascal with David Lounsbury   Psychology SIG Roundtable and Annual Meeting   Abstract Supporting

Havel, Timothy   Pre-release Screening of the Movie “Boom Bust Boom”   Abstract

Hayward, John   UK Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Jeffers, Robert   Environmental SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Kapmeier, Florian   German Chapter Informal Gathering   Abstract  Link from authors

Kautz, Frederick with Raafat Zaini, Seth Cordes and Matthew Bigman   Business SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Kopainsky, Birgit   Swiss Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Kuhlberg, Jill   Student Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Kuhlberg, Jill with Sibel Eker   PhD Colloquium  Abstract Link to Student Chapter Site

Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio   Conflict, Defense, and Security SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Matthew, George   Energy SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

McCarthy, James with Craig Hocum, Robert Albright, James Rogers, Edward Gallaher, David Steensma, Stephen Gudgell, Eric Bergstralh, John Dillion, LaTonya Hickson, Amy Williams, and David Dingli   Biomedical SD to Improve Anemia Control With Darbepoetin Alfa in Long-Term Hemodialysis Patients (SD Applications Award)   Abstract Citation by Brad Morrison  Link to publication

Morrison, J. Bradley   Health Care Adventures at the Center for Medical Simulation   Abstract Paper

Nakamura, Paulo with Karim Chichakly   Brazil Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Pavlov, Oleg   Russian Chapter Roundtable and Annual Meeting   Abstract

Perez Salazar, Gloria   Latin America Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Potash, P. Jeffrey   Education SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Pruyt, Erik   BeNeLux Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Rahmandad, Hazhir   Jay Wright Forrester Award Ceremony   Abstract Video of Presentation Slideshow of Presentation Link to publication

Rich, Eliot with Luis Luna-Reyes, Andrada Tomoaia-Cotisel, Chohreh Partovian, Mingzhe Tao, James Houghton, Ignacio Martinez-Moyano and Robert Jeffers   Data Analytics Lightning Talks   Abstract Paper Supporting

Rich, Eliot with Stefano Armenia   iSIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Sooknanan Pillay, Nalini with Alan Brent and Josephine Musango   South Africa System Dynamics Chapter Roundtable   Abstract

Strohhecker, Jürgen   Presidential Address  Speech

Uchino, Akira with Robert Cavana   Asia Pacific Chapters Meeting   Abstract

Wheat, David with Oleg Pavlov   Economics Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Williams, Ddembe   Africa Regional Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Yucel, Gönenç   Model Analysis SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

System Dynamics Society
*Conference Proceedings updated: May 11, 2016.