Abstract for: Building Resilience to Climate-Change-Related Disruptions in the Global LNG Supply Chain
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies one-third of the global natural gas market and is expected to grow in volume in the years to come. The LNG supply chain is faced with many challenges, including (1) increased exposure to climate-change-related hazards like hurricanes, typhoons, storm surges and sea level rise, (2) changes in market structure with opening up of new trade routes, e.g., Panama Canal, and (3) changes in energy prices, development of new energy sources and gas supplies, e.g., Shale Gas. A five-stage framework is employed to develop a model of the global LNG supply network in order to assess the vulnerabilities and to identify measures to build resilience. The global supply network is simplified with the aggregation of four large regions of the world. Each region produces and consumes LNG, where two regions are net importers and two regions are net exporters. It is found that disruptions in one region can have cascading effects in other regions, that the policy that minimises the effect of the disruption in one region can increase it in other regions, and that a policy best suited to one kind of disruption can be poorly suited to other kinds.