Abstract for: The Dynamics of Violent Crimes in New York City: A 50-Year Perspective
The present study shows both a causal loop diagram and a stock and flow diagram of a system dynamics model that seeks to explain the trend change in violent crimes in New York City over a period of 50 years. It combines four important factors that have been used to explain the big increase and subsequent fall in these kind of crimes: demographics, differential association theory, law enforcement, and drugs. It also tests and evaluates a policy to decrease further the number of violent crimes. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Word count: 4860.