Abstract for: The Effects of Energy Consumption on Environmental pollutants and Social Costs in Iran Using System Dynamics Approach
Energy consumption has constantly been increasing during these years. Excessive energy consumption causes reduction in energy sources as well as making environmental pollutants which demands high social costs in the society. Due to the inappropriate methods employed in most studies on energy consumption, all-inclusive effects of excessive energy consumption has not been dealt with. System Dynamics, on account of its comprehensibility, can be an effective method to detect and investigate energy consumption effects. So, in this study, System Dynamics approach was used to analyze effects of energy consumption on the environmental pollutants and social costs in the planning horizon of 2024 in Iran. Simulation results indicated that energy consumption in 2024 would reach to 2150 million barrels of oil. On this basis, environmental pollutants would reach from 283 million tons in 1999 to 1185 million tons in 2024 horizon. The rate of social costs would be equal to 28875 million dollars. This cost is equal to 27% of GDP. The findings suggest that energy consumption in the future creates several problems in providing energy sources as well as social costing and health. A lot of problems would be created in the environment and healthcare of the society in case of not planning for the excessive energy consumption.