Sessions by Thread

The 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA -- July 21-25, 2013

Updated: November 25, 2013

Special Events

A Fireside Chat with Jay Forrester, chaired by Khalid Saeed  Abstract  Link to video

Last Call Documentary Introduction and Screening, chaired by Peter Milling  Abstract  Link from authors 


Plenary: The CEO as Modeler, chaired by Kim Warren

Value and Acceptance of System Dynamics in Business: Business Owner as SD Practitioner Perspective, by Warren Farr  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

How a CEO Can Create a Sustainable Competitive Advantage by Modeling the Company as a Dynamic System, by Bob Berry  Abstract  Paper  Link from authors

The Manager as Modeler, by Stephen Hennigan  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Capacity and Strategy, chaired by Florian Kapmeier

Corporate Training Dynamics and Insights, by Pascal Gambardella, Charles Wainwright, Helen Jones-Kelleher  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Using System Dynamics to Inform Scenario Planning: A Case Study, by Charles Featherston, Matthew Doolan  Abstract  Paper

The Network Strategy of a Gas Distribution Company, by Paulo Goncalves, Michele Broggini  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Value, Learning and Cycles, chaired by Martin Rafferty

Cycles in Casualty: An Examination of Profit Cycles in the Insurance Industry, by Kawika Pierson  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Implications of The Rate of Organizational Learning on Value Capture in the Digital Economy, by Mona Vernon  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

System Dynamics and stock markets, by Martin Rafferty  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Project Dynamics, chaired by Don Woodlock

Empirical Study of Design-Construction Feedbacks in Building Construction Projects, by Kiavash Parvan, Hazhir Rahmandad, Ali Haghani  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Agile Project Dynamics: A System Dynamics Investigation of Agile Software Development Methods, by Firas Glaiel, Allen Moulton, Stuart Madnick  Abstract  Paper

Modeling the Evolution of a Science Project in Software-Reliant System Acquisition Programs, by Andrew Moore, William Novak  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Diffusion and Market Size, chaired by Peter Lacey

Facilitating Diffusion of Innovations Through Niche Management Strategies, by Gönenç Yucel  Abstract  Paper

Modeling Movie Release Strategies, by Christopher Hughes  Abstract  Paper

Supply-Chain Transparency and Governance Systems: Market Penetration of the I-Choose System, by Weijia Ran, Holly Jarman, Luis Luna-Reyes, Jing Zhang, Deborah Andersen, Giri Tayi, Djoko Sayogo, Joanne Luciano, David Andersen  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Perception, Knowledge and Innovation, chaired by Elizabeth Ong

Dynamic Strategies for Apartment Brand Management in Korean Housing Market, by Minji Choi, Moonseo Park, Hyun-Soo Lee, Sungjoo Hwang, Chanhyuk Park  Abstract  Paper

A Framework for Measuring the Value-Added of Knowledge Processes with Analysis of Process Interactions and Dynamics, by Jose Cintron, Wilawan Onkham, Luis Rabelo, Alfonso Sarmiento  Abstract  Paper

Critical Success Factors of the Offshore Outsourcing of Software Development Projects: A System Dynamics Approach, by Frederic Mayrand, Luc Cassivi, Martin Cloutier  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Small and Medium Enterprise Dynamics, chaired by Sharon Els

Adverse Selection in SME Financing: When Both Bank and Innovative Entrepreneur Lose, by Araz Khodabakhshian, Mohsen Khosravi, Ali Mashayekhi  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

A Dynamic Performance Management Approach to Evaluate and Support SMEs Competitiveness: Evidences from a Case Study, by Milica Marinkovic, Federico Cosenz, Carmine Bianchi  Abstract  Paper

Modeling and Comparing a Startup Dynamics in the US and Egypt, by Fady Saad  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Strategy Dynamics

Impact of Flexibility on Risk Management in an Indian Pharmaceutical Manufacturer – A system dynamics approach, by Sushil Sushil, Arnab Mitra  Abstract  Paper

Exploratory Study on Emerging Market Entry Strategy - Systems Thinking Approach, by ChangKwon Chung  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Organizational and Human Resource Dynamics

Critical Issues for Organizational Growth and Success: A Systems Thinking View using Feedback Loop Analysis, by Sumant Bishwas, Sushil Sushil  Abstract  Paper

Effective Leadership using System Dynamics and the Matrix of Change, by Ahmed Elattar, Wilawan Onkham, Luis Rabelo, Muyuan Li  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Business Operations, Economics, and Banking Dynamics

Analysis of a serious accident emergency drill with a simulation model, by Angela Martin-Mendez  Abstract  Paper

Dairy Business: Farmer Education Enables Precision Farming, by Alberto Stanislao Atzori, Luis Tedeschi, Stefano Armenia  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Marketing Effectiveness Improvement Analysis Based on System Dynamics Model, by Reza Faridyahyaie, Amin Faridyahyaie, Nader Mahmoudi  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Lending to Small and Medium Enterprises: A Novel Approach to Credit Portfolio Management, by András Kovari, Erik Pruyt  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Industry Dynamics

Developing "System Dynamics-based" Flexible Strategy Game-card: Exploring Performance of the Indian Telecom Service Providers, by Neetu Yadav, Sushil Sushil  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Construction of a Dynamic Model for Evolution of Korea Mobile Industry Ecosystem by System Dynamics, by Seonghwi Lee, Myoung Ho Lee, Hoon Huh  Abstract

System Dynamics Model of Residential and Commercial Lighting Markets, by Robert Nachtrieb  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

A System Dynamics Approach on Green Car Diffusion Strategy and the Korean case, by Kyungbae Park  Abstract  Paper


Plenary: Market Dynamics, chaired by Paulo Goncalves

A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling the Global Capital Markets, by Stephen Cucchiaro  Abstract  Paper

Pushing the Limits – Using System Dynamics to Forecast Short-Term Commodity Price Movements, by Florian Kapmeier, Alexander Voigt  Abstract  Paper

Three slices of Jay Forrester’s general theory of economic behavior: An interpretation, by Khalid Saeed  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Finance & Banking, chaired by Sean Morgan

Modelling Sovereign Debt Induced Banking Crises: Theory, Application and Policy Conundrums, by Jide Lewis  Abstract  Paper

Inclusive growth and sustainable finance - a system dynamics model, by Bo Hu, Joachim Block, Armin Leopold, Stefan Pickl  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Energy Policy, chaired by Asmeret Bier

Bioenergy market competition for biomass: A system dynamics review of current policy, by Jacob Jacobson, Robert Jeffers  Abstract

Developing a Fair and Robust Energy Policy, by Frank Blaskovich  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Simulating Government Policies for the Ethanol Market in Brazil, by Erico Santos  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Macroeconomics & Money, chaired by Patricia Craig

The Dynamics of Indonesian’s Currency Crisis in 1997, by Gunawan Wicaksono  Abstract  Paper

Lending to Small and Medium Enterprises: A Novel Approach to Credit Portfolio Management, by András Kovari, Erik Pruyt  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

On Component Based Modeling Approach using System Dynamics for The Financial System (With a Case Study of Keen-Minsky Model), by Ginanjar Utama  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Fiscal & Monetary Policies, chaired by Robert Cavana

Employment-Centred Stabilisation Policy Propelling the Economy to “Escape Velocity”, by Alexander Ryzhenkov  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Dynamic Conservation of Money, by Douglas Franco  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Exchange Rates and Deindustrialization: Japanese Experiences, by Takayuki Yamashita  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Finance, Banking & Debt

Policy in Adaptive Financial Markets—The Use of Systemic Risk Early Warning Tools, by Mikhail Oet, Dieter Gramlich, Stephen Ong  Abstract  Paper

Stress-Testing Banks under Deep Uncertainty, by Christos Vasilopoulos, Erik Pruyt, Tushith Islam  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Urban & Real Estate Dynamics

Cities as Complex Systems, by Fernando Buendia  Abstract

A Shock to the System: How can Land Value Taxation change the Face of Cities?, by Georgios Tsaples, Erik Pruyt, András Kovari, Christos Vasilopoulos  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

A system dynamics approach to clarify the impacts of state loans on real estate market in Iran, by Yalda Amini, Sina Jangali Kasmaei, Golnoosh Sharifan, Gholamreza Eslamifar, Ashkan Aghdai  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

The shift to land value taxation: A tale of a different future, by George Papachristos, Christos Vasilopoulos  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Economic Development, Employment, Politcial & Methodological Issues

Case study: Scenario and Risk Analysis in the Pulp Industry using System Dynamics and Monte Carlo Simulation, by Erico Santos, Taly Nahmias, Julianne Archipavas, Gustavo Felipe Galli e Silva, Alberto Traverso Sienra  Abstract  Paper

Anticipating complex behaviors of coercive actions in international relations, by Amir MohammadShirazi, Gholamreza Eslamifar, Masoomeh Khandan, Ashkan Aghdai  Abstract  Supporting

Business Competition as a Complex System: A System Dynamics Approach, by Fernando Buendia  Abstract

A System Dynamics Examination of the “Spirit of Capitalism”, by John Voyer, Herbert Smoluk  Abstract  Paper

Dynamic Demand Modeling of Freight Fleets, by André Kuehn, Michael Krail  Abstract  Paper  Supporting


Plenary: Global Modeling, chaired by Peter Milling

2052 – A Global Forecast for the next Forty Years Using a Mix of Models, by Jorgen Randers  Abstract  Paper

Global Models from Malthus to C-Roads and Beyond, by Thomas Fiddaman, Andrew Jones, John Sterman  Abstract

Parallel: Water resource management, chaired by Allyson Beall

A Simulation Framework for Integrated Water and Energy Resource Planning, by Robert Jeffers  Abstract  Paper

Solution-oriented Systems Thinking Archetypes; examples of the Manawatu River, New Zealand, by Marjan van den Belt, Vicky Forgie, Mike Scott, Anna Frampton, Ahmad Obeidat  Abstract  Paper

Teaching top-down modeling to bottom-up thinkers: A report from the initial phase of a collaborative watershed-modeling project, by Melanie Thornton, Liz Allen, Allyson Beall  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Planning for sustainability, chaired by Patricia Craig

Adaptation to climate change in sub Saharan Africa. A multi-sector impact analysis for Burkina Faso, by Birgit Kopainsky, Gunda Zullich, Santiago Movilla Blanco  Abstract  Paper

Assessing Future Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels of China, by Hefeng Tong, Weishuang Qu, John Shilling  Abstract  Paper

Eco-Eco-System Dynamics, by John Shilling  Abstract  Paper  Supporting  Link from authors

Parallel: Green Economies, chaired by George Richardson

A Dynamic Analysis of Socio-Technical Transition towards Bio-Economy, by Tomi Sorasalmi, Riitta Nieminen-Sundell, Peter Ylen  Abstract  Paper

South African Green Economy Model (SAGEM), by Josephine Musango, Alan Brent, Andrea Bassi  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Integrating Economics and System Dynamics Approaches for Modeling an Ecological-Economic System, by Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Sustainable waste management, chaired by Onur Ozgun

The impacts of biomass exploitation and carbon valuation on boreal forest management, by Marc Jaxa-Rozen, Muhammad Rihan Handaulah, Erik Pruyt  Abstract

Exploratory Dynamic Analysis of the Adoption of Biowaste Separation Behavior in Households, by Nicolas Escalante  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Evidence building for waste prevention: understanding the causal influences that result in waste, by Rachel Freeman, Michael Yearworth, Maria Angulo, Tom Quested  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Food, land, water, and sustainability

Poultry Supply Chain: A System Approach, by Mohammad Shamsuddoha, Mohammed Quaddus, Desmond Klass  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Social dimension of bio energy production policy in Africa: A systems thinking perspective, by Martin Kaggwa  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

A System Dynamics Analysis of the Bottled Water Industry in the United States, by Brendan Moloney, Matthew Doolan, Barry Newell  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

If the hillock does not survive, the community does not survive: Insights from the SD Winter Institute in Andhra Pradesh, by Zhu Xiao, Masha Serdyukova, Rachel Binstock  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

A system dynamics approach to assess the impact of policy changes in the Icelandic demersal fishery, by Sigridur Sigurdardottir, Jónas Vioarsson, Sveinn Margeirsson  Abstract  Paper

An Investigation into Land Use Changes and Consequences in the Northern Great Plains Using Systems Thinking and Dynamics, by Ben Turner, Luis Tedeschi, Roger Gates, Tim Nichols, Melissa Wuellner, Barry Dunn  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Integrated Water Resources Management Incorporating Water Quality, Energy Consumption and Ecological Requirement, by Yilin Zhuang, Qiong Zhang  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Pollution reduction strategies

The establishment of container-deposit on single-use beverage packaging in Germany, by Roland Maximilian Happach, Meike Tilebein  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Muwait: a system dynamics model for municipal waste management in Italy, by Vincenzo Di Giulio, Stefania Migliavacca, Vincenzo Durante, Paolo Torelli, Michela Giuliani  Abstract

Application of System Dynamics for Municipal Waste Management in China: A Case Study of Beijing, by Lin Cai, Ying Liu  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Using Dynamic Stock & Flow Models for Global and Regional Material and Substance Flow Analysis - An Example for Copper, by Simon Gloeser, Marcel Soulier  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Energy innovation and climate adaptation

Assessing the new electricity-market reform in GB with the support of SD, by Monica Castaneda, Isaac Dyner, Carlos Franco  Abstract

A system dynamics-based model of the socio-technical systems of household energy and carbon emissions, by Michael Oladokun, Ibrahim Motawa, Phillip Banfill  Abstract  Paper

A Preliminary Qualitative Model for the Availability of Climate Adaptation Finance in Developing Countries, by Karen Meijer, Maaike van Aalst, Aleksandra Dobreva  Abstract  Paper


Games for a New Climate: Leveraging Immersive, Situated Learning Experiences for Climate Change Education and Decision Support, by Juliette Rooney-Varga, John Sterman, Travis Franck, Elizabeth Sawin, Andrew Jones, Janot Mendler de Suarez  Abstract  Link from authors


Parallel: Public and Clinical Health Dynamics, chaired by David Lounsbury

The eye of the beholder: exploring the dynamics of regional differences in cataract treatment, by Bert van Nistelrooij, Etiënne Rouwette, Jac Vennix, Ilse Verstijnen  Abstract

Decision thresholds in developmental-behavioral screening: Gaining insight through system dynamics modeling, by Kee Chan, Deborah Polk, Chris Sheldrick  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Ageing and the Sustainability of Public Expenditure: SD Based Policy Analysis, by Willem Auping, Erik Pruyt, Thomas Logtens  Abstract  Supporting

Parallel: Healthcare service planning and delivery, chaired by Jim Duggan

Robust workforce planning for the English medical workforce, by Siôn Cave, Andrew Woodward, Graham Willis  Abstract  Paper

Dynamic Impacts of Performance Based Payment System on Public Hospitals in Turkey, by Yaman Barlas, Tugrul Meker  Abstract  Paper

Adapting ‘Agility’ to Healthcare Service Delivery, by Tom Rust, Khalid Saeed, Isa Bar-On, Oleg Pavlov  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Infectious Diseases, chaired by Gary Hirsch

Using system dynamics to apply syndemic theory to women with and at-risk for HIV, by Abigail Batchelder, David Lounsbury, Anton Palma, Ellie Schoenbaum, Jeffrey Gonzalez  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Cost of Malaria Elimination in Kenya by Means of IVM Implementation, by Santiago Movilla Blanco  Abstract  Paper

Using System Dynamics to model the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Botswana and Uganda, by Rachel Howell, Onno Wesselink, Erik Pruyt  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Metabolism, Physiology and Epidemiology, chaired by Yaman Barlas

Modeling the Dynamics of Methylmercury Biomagnification, by Gizem Bacaksizlar, Nisa Onsel  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Epidemiology of Cytomegalovirus, by Georgios Tsaples, Meropi Nassikas  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

A Dynamic Simulation Model for Insulin Resistance and Type II Diabetes in the Context of Obesity, by Melike Can, Aybek Korugan, Yaman Barlas  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Fighting Diseases and Addictions

Diabetes Learning Lab in Stella 10, by Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Prado, Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro, Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro, Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro, Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez  Abstract  Paper

A System Dynamics Model of Salt Reduction at a National Level, by Nobuo Nishi  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Modeling opioid addiction treatment policies using system dynamics, by Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra Nielsen  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

From the Archives: The dynamics of action-oriented problem solving: linking interpretation and choice, by J. Bradley Morrison, Jenny Rudolph, John Carroll  Abstract

Poster: Healthcare Systems and Healthcare Organizations

A Patient Flow Model of Singapore’s Healthcare System, by John Ansah, David Matchar  Abstract  Paper

Improving Efficiency and Capacity in Primary Health Care in Iceland Using System Dynamics, by Bryndís Alexandersdottir, Helgi Ingason, Brynhildur Davidsdottir  Abstract  Paper

Applying the System Dynamics Approach in Evaluating Clinical Risk Management Policies in Three Healthcare Companies, by Francesco Ceresia, Giovan Battista Montemaggiore  Abstract  Paper

Unlocking the promise of patient engagement: the dynamics of patient portal adoption, by Daniel Goldsmith, John Lyneis  Abstract  Supporting

From the Archives: Models That Matter: Selected Writings on System Dynamics 1985-2010, by Jack Homer  Abstract

Other: Health Care Adventures at the Center for Medical Simulation, by J. Bradley Morrison  Abstract  Paper


Human Behavior
Parallel: Decision Making and Perception, chaired by Nicole Zimmermann

Perception is more than time delays, by Özge Pala, Etiënne Rouwette  Abstract

Cooperation and Learning in Cyber Security Training Exercises, by Asmeret Bier, Ben Anderson  Abstract  Paper

An Analysis of Mental Process within Construction Workforces for Project-level Safety Management, by Mingyu Shin, Hyun-Soo Lee, Moonseo Park, Seulbi Lee  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Endogenous Sources of Collective Human Behavior, chaired by Stefan Groesser

Modeling the Influence of Narratives on Collective Behavior, by James Houghton, Michael Siegel, Daniel Goldsmith  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

The endogenous genesis of Etruscan proto-cities: System Dynamics as a tool for historians, by Nicola Bianchi, Roberto Marcialis  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Maya Apocalypse: Results of Varying Productivity, Consumption, Impacts, and Policies, by Tom Forest  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Organizational Culture

Monetary Incentives as a Fix that Fails with Reciprocal Employees, by Nicole Zimmermann  Abstract  Supporting

The Dynamics of the Organizational Culture in a Municipality, by Francesco Ceresia  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Social Norms and Regulation

Investigation of Cyberbullying Phenomenon as an Epidemic, by Meg Fryling, Jack Rivituso  Abstract  Paper

Abstract System Dynamics and its Application to Corporate Governance Analysis, by Bertrand Rossert  Abstract  Paper


Information and Knowledge
Poster: Information and Knowledge

Fuzzy Systems Perspectives on Cognition, Economics and Machines in Organizations, by Farley Nobre, Romeu Telma  Abstract  Paper

Systems Thinking to Understand a Knowledge-producing Triple Helix Innovation Process, by UngKyu Han, Martin Kunc  Abstract

Diversity and Innovativeness in New Product Development Teams – Addressing Dynamic Aspects With Simulation, by Anja Kreidler, Meike Tilebein  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

SOA Governance Dynamics for IT Organizations, by Ricardo Chaim  Abstract  Paper

Study of Information Spreading on Micro-blogging based on SEIR model, by Ying Qian, Nan Zhang, Shengxin Chen, Jianguo Jia  Abstract  Paper  Supporting


Learning and Teaching

Plenary: Fearless Use of System Dynamics in Education – How You Can Make a Difference!, by Lees Stuntz, George Richardson, Peter Hovmand, Anne LaVigne, Paul Newton  Abstract

Plenary: Human Capital Development, chaired by David Andersen

Research Workforce Diversity: The Case of Balancing National vs. International Postdocs in U.S. Biomedical Research, by Navid Ghaffarzadegan, Joshua Hawley, Anand Desai  Abstract

First Four Years: A Case Study of Starting a Social System Design Lab, by Peter Hovmand  Abstract  Supporting

Small SD Models for BIG ISSUES - The Book, by Erik Pruyt  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Stock-flow Thinking and Dynamic Complexity, chaired by Laura Black

Effects of Illustrations, Specific Contexts, and Instructions: Further Attempts to Improve Stock–Flow Task Performance, by Marcus Schwarz, Saskia Epperlein, Friederike Brockhaus, Peter Sedlmeier  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Does Modification of Representation Format Affect Stock–Flow Thinking?, by Friederike Brockhaus, Jana Arnold, Marcus Schwarz, Peter Sedlmeier  Abstract  Paper

Do People Possess a Global and Ordinal Understanding of Accumulation? An Experimental Study, by Mihaela Tabacaru, Helen Fischer  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Modelling and Learning for Policy Making, chaired by James Thompson

Re-Scaling the Parents as Teachers Program in Missouri, by Madeleine Polk, Mary McMiller, Josh Jennemann, Zhu Xiao  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Teaching Policy Design, Using a Case Study of Unintended Consequences when the EU Regulates Hospital Doctors’ Hours, by David Wheat, Aklilu Tadesse, Mang Li, Glenn Lewis  Abstract  Paper

Simulation-Based Learning Environments to Teach Complexity: The Missing Link in Teaching Sustainable Public Management, by Michael Deegan, Krystyna Stave, Roderick MacDonald, David Andersen, Minyoung Ku, Eliot Rich  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Systems Learning: K-12 and Beyond, chaired by Meg Fryling

Developing Capacity for Systems Thinking in Schools, by Madeleine Polk  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Teaching Characteristics of Complex Systems in K-12 Education: Lessons Learned, by Anne LaVigne, Jennifer Andersen, Lees Stuntz  Abstract  Paper

Complexity-Based Gaming Approach to Improve Learning from Simulation Games, by Onur Ozgun, Yaman Barlas  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Quality and Innovation in Education

Third Generation University Strategic Planning Model Development, by Valerijs Skribans, Arnis Lektauers, Yuri Merkuryev  Abstract  Paper

Learning objectives for successive development stages of system dynamics competency, by Martin Schaffernicht, Stefan Groesser  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Keeping Students with the Curriculum: Using a Systems Dynamics Approach to Elementary Education, by Jurgen Kuipers, Anika Rose  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Visual integration with stock-flow models: How far can intuition carry us?, by Peter Sedlmeier, Friederike Brockhaus, Marcus Schwarz  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Engaging Learners with System Dynamics and Simulation

The beer game in Stella 10, by Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Prado, Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro, Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro, Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro, Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez  Abstract  Paper

[Pollen learning lab]® to improve the public education system (new), by Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Prado, Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro, Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro, Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro, Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez  Abstract  Paper

Debriefing as a System: Enhancing Reflection in Experiential Learning, by J. Bradley Morrison  Abstract


Rapid Modeling and Teaching with Sysdea Online System Dynamics Software, by Christina Spencer  Abstract  Link from authors

FishBanks in Teaching, by Dennis Meadows  Abstract

Building Better Mental Models of the Impact of Anthropogenic GHG Emissions - a Hands-On Activity, by Chris Browne, Barry Newell, Paul Compston  Abstract  Supporting  Link from authors

Getting Started with Sysdea Online Modeling Software, by Christina Spencer, Kim Warren, Christopher Spencer  Abstract  Link from authors

World Dynamics Revisited, by John Morecroft, Martin Kunc  Abstract  Paper  Supporting


Parallel: Modelling Foundations, chaired by Jill Slinger

Pitfalls of Multi Method Modelling: Concepts and Comparisons, by Herbert Daly  Abstract  Paper

Deduction and abduction in computer simulation: Comparing logics in theory development, by Edoardo Mollona  Abstract  Paper

Exploring the mutual benefits of collaboration with Concept Mapping – preliminary results and some puzzles, by Martin Schaffernicht, Bärbel Furstenau  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Optimization and Calibration Methodology, chaired by Gönenç Yucel

A Multi-Pathfinder for Developing Adaptive Robust Policies in System Dynamics, by Caner Hamarat, Erik Pruyt, Erwin Loonen  Abstract  Paper

A Global Approach to the Optimal Control of System Dynamics Models, by Armin Fugenschuh, Ingmar Vierhaus  Abstract  Paper

Estimation of Unknown Parameters in Dynamic Models Using the Method of Simulated Moments (MSM), by Hazhir Rahmandad, Mohammad Jalali, Hamed Ghoddusi  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Modelling Approaches, chaired by Markus Schwaninger

Doing more with Models: Illustration of a SD Approach for Dealing with Deeply Uncertain Issues, by Erik Pruyt, Jan Kwakkel, Caner Hamarat  Abstract  Paper

The Top 7 Myths About System Dynamics, by J. Chris White, Robert Sholtes  Abstract

Parallel: Model Building and Behaviour, chaired by Marjan van den Belt

Absent or distant? On the use of indirect causal links and chains of causal links to compare mental models of dynamic systems, by Martin Schaffernicht, Stefan Groesser  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Connecting Micro Dynamics and Population Distributions in System Dynamics Models, by Saeideh Fallah-Fini, Hazhir Rahmandad, Hsin-Jen Chen, Youfa Wang  Abstract  Paper

Bayesian Parameter Estimation of System Dynamics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods: An Informal Introduction, by Nathaniel Osgood, Juxin Liu  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Modelling Foundations

Using Scenario Planning Data in System Dynamics Model Building, by Ezzat El Halabi, Matthew Doolan  Abstract  Paper

Translating Between Laplace Domain Block Diagrams and System Dynamics Stock & Flow Diagrams, by Rohit Mundra, Khalid Saeed  Abstract

System Dynamics Endogenous Mental Models, by Warren Tignor  Abstract  Paper

Limits to Planetary Fresh Water Use: A Multi-Model Investigation, by Jan Kwakkel, Jos Timmermans  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Modelling Methodologies

Elicitation of Mental Models of Dynamic Systems: Do Existing Elicitation Approaches Suffice?, by Stefan Groesser, Martin Schaffernicht  Abstract

Evaluation of Alternative Dynamic Behavior Representations for Automated Model Output Classification and Clustering, by Nisa Onsel, Emre Onsel, Gönenç Yucel  Abstract  Paper

Disaggregation of a Stock Variable Based on Attribute Distribution, by Nitin Joglekar  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Achilles Can Catch the Tortoise: Alternative Goal-seeking Structures, by Charles Jones  Abstract  Paper


Creating Simulations for the Web with STELLA and iThink, by Joanne Egner, William Schoenberg, Karim Chichakly  Abstract  Supporting

Optimization with Vensim, by Thomas Fiddaman  Abstract  Link from authors

Getting Started with Forio: Turn Your Model into a Web Simulation, by Michael Bean  Abstract  Link from authors

Powersim Studio User Group and Advanced Techniques with Powersim Studio, by Leonard Malczynski  Abstract  Paper  Link from authors

Getting Started with Powersim Studio, by Leonard Malczynski  Abstract  Supporting  Link from authors

Getting Started with Vensim, by Thomas Fiddaman  Abstract  Link from authors

System Dynamics Model Documentation and Assessment Tool (SDM-Doc), by Ignacio Martinez-Moyano  Abstract  Link from authors

Scriptapedia 4.0: A Tool for Designing “Scripted” Group Model Building Workshops, by Peter Hovmand, Etiënne Rouwette  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Model Analysis with Vensim and Classic Global Models, by Thomas Fiddaman  Abstract  Link from authors

Getting to Know AnyLogic - Agent-Based and Multi-Method modeling in AnyLogic, by Andrei Borshchev, Scott Hebert  Abstract  Paper  Supporting  Link from authors

Getting Started with STELLA and iThink, by Joanne Egner, Karim Chichakly, William Schoenberg  Abstract  Supporting


Parallel: Supply Chain, chaired by J. Chris White

Future Trends of the automotive Li-Ion Battery Supply Chain in Germany – Dynamic effects on raw materials and employment, by Tim Hettesheimer, Christian Lerch  Abstract  Paper

Burnout and Floating Goals in High-Contact Service Operations, by Luis Lopez, Roy Zuniga  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Exploring Retailer’s Ordering Decisions under Delays, by Sebastian Villa Betancur, Paulo Goncalves, Santiago Arango  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Business Process, chaired by Khaled Wahba

Model for Calculating Operational Capacities in Service Providers Using System Dynamics, by Mauricio Becerra Fernandez, Javier Orjuela Castro, Olga Romero Quiroga, Milton Herrera Ramirez  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Individual Performance in the Beer Game: Underweighting the Supply Line and the Impact of Personality, by Brad Meyer, Radostina Purvanova  Abstract  Paper

Determinants of Requirements Process Improvement Success, by Aminah Zawedde, Ddembe Williams  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Operations

Control Formulations for a Stock Management Problem with a Delay in Measuring and Reporting, by Hakan Yasarcan, Taner Bilgic  Abstract

A Case Study of the Value-driven Feedback System for Quality Culture Improvements in the Project-based Organizations, by Min-Ren Yan, Hsin-Ke Lu, Yi-Hsiu Cheng  Abstract

The development of sustainable transports through the right logistics strategy – a system dynamics approach, by Gerald Aschauer  Abstract  Paper

Large System Transformation within Healthcare Organizations utilizing Lean Deployment Strategies, by Heather Woodward-Hagg, Isa Bar-On  Abstract  Paper

Equivalent System Dynamics Model for Reliability Assessment, by Juan Osorio, Marcela Narvaez  Abstract


Getting Started with the Beer Game on Steroids (BGOS), by J. Chris White, Robert Sholtes  Abstract  Link from authors

Schneider Trucking Game: A Multiplayer Simulation on the iPad, by Adam Savitzky, Michael Bean, Westley Hennigh  Abstract  Supporting


Public Policy
Parallel: Towards Emissions-Free Urban Transport, chaired by Jeroen Struben

Dynamics of the transition towards alternative fuel vehicles in advanced and emerging markets, by Edmundo Molina  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Simulation of Transitions Towards Emission-Free Urban Transport, by Sampsa Ruutu, Heidi Auvinen, Anu Tuominen, Toni Ahlqvist, Juha Oksanen  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Urban Infrastructure, chaired by Krishnan Raman

Flood damage in Bangkok: disaster or an opportunity for creative destruction, by Sarun Paisarnsrisomsuk, Khalid Saeed, Peerapas Thongsawas, Pitchaya Wiratchotisatian  Abstract  Paper

Model-Based Strategy Design for Biowaste Recovery in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, by Nicolas Escalante  Abstract  Paper

A Risk-based Evaluation of Policies for Sustainable Water System Design in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, by Vivek Sakhrani, Ahmad Alabdulkareem, Adnan Alsaati, Anas Alfaris, Noelle Selin, Olivier de Weck  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Funding Public Policy, chaired by Carmine Bianchi

System Dynamics Based Simulation for Airport Revenue Analysis, by Jing Qin, Doina Olaru  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Dynamic Drivers of Successful Social Impact Bonds, by Robert White, David Ford  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Nonlinear Dynamics of Ghost Busters: Detecting Fraud with System Dynamics, by Porfirio Guevara  Abstract

Parallel: Workforce and Infrastructure in Education, chaired by John Voyer

Facility Conditions: A System Dynamics Review of the CSU Capital Outlay Program and its Impacts to the CSU, Chico Campus, by Andrew Boyd  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Applying System dynamics to simulate Iran’s engineering post graduates employment status, by Ali Moslemini, Mohammad Owlia, Khadijeh Gholami  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Increasing part-time working hours in the Netherlands. Identifying policy recommendations through Group Model Building, by Inge Bleijenbergh, Brigit Fokkinga  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Urban Dynamics & Housing, chaired by Gi Soo Kim, Man-Hyung Lee

Social Housing in Colombia: A case for Social Systems Engineering, by Andrea Baena, Camilo Olaya  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Regional Strategic Industry (RSI) Promotion Projects and Their Impact on Regional Economic Growth, by Man-Hyung Lee, Nam Hee Choi, Won-Gyu Ha  Abstract  Paper

The Utilization of System Dynamics in Concluding Policies for Greater Cairo Sustainable Development, by Khaled Wahba, Naglaa Fahmy  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Social Challenges and Public Policy, chaired by John Barton

Legalization of Cannabis in the USA: A System Dynamics Approach to Drug Policy, by Rick van Staveren, Andrew Thompson  Abstract  Paper

The Marijuana Market in Mexico: A System Dynamics Perspective, by Gloria Perez Salazar  Abstract  Paper

Exploration of the Effects of Open Innovation Policies on National Innovation Systems through System Dynamics Simulation: Apply, by JinHyo Yun, Dong Kyu Won, Byung Yong Hwang, WooYoung Jung, Dong-Hwan Kim  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Transport Systems, chaired by Cornelia van Daalen

Systemic Analysis in Legislating: Modeling the “Cash for Clunkers” Stimulus, by Tao Wang, Chester Labedz  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Right timing: unseen delays and stocks in implementation of transport systems, by Juliana Gomez-Quintero, Laura Guzman-Abello  Abstract  Paper

Supporting policy analysis in the Dutch rail sector using System Dynamics, by Aster Mannaerts, Cornelia van Daalen, J. van Luipen, S. A. Meijer  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Energy and Resources

Freight Vehicle Circulation Restriction Policy in an Emerging Country Metropolitan Area: undesired impacts, by Lars Sanches, Orlando Lima, Janaina Pinto  Abstract  Paper

Electric Power Demand Scenarios – SD Approach, by Vizaya Kumar Karumanchi  Abstract

Systems Analysis of the Impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami on Energy Supply System in Kamaishi-City, by Deniz Koca, Takehiro Kawahara  Abstract  Paper

The Challenges of the French Electricity Generation Sector: an Analysis using ESDMA, by Tristan deWildt  Abstract  Paper

Policy analysis to boost the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in the Colombian market, by Laura Ardila, Carlos Franco  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Public Policy Challenges

Service delivery and service delivery protests in contemporary South Africa: A systems perspective, by Martin Kaggwa  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Transformative quality of doctoral education: the way new standards are negotiated. System dynamics approach, by Birute Mikulskiene, Daiva Mazrimiene  Abstract  Paper

The Capability Trap and Implementation of Evidence-based Practice in Child Protective Services, by Mary Jo Stahlschmidt  Abstract

A System Dynamics Approach to Enhance Tourism Service Delivery Performance through Value Co-Creation, by Mona Soufivand, Enzo Bivona, Marco Alessi  Abstract  Paper

An Analysis of Post-disaster Resources Supply and Work Environment for Restoration Planning of Facilities, by Sungjoo Hwang, Moonseo Park, Hyun-Soo Lee, Sang Hyun Lee  Abstract  Paper

Dynamics of Consumerism and Credit Card Debt under the Influence of Advertising, by Özlem Turan, Dolunay Ugur, Yaman Barlas  Abstract  Paper  Supporting


Plenary: Biofuels, chaired by Andrew Ford

An Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model, by Steve Peterson, Brian Bush, Emily Newes, Danny Inman, David Hsu, Laura Vimmerstedt, Dana Stright  Abstract  Paper

Assessing the Liberalization of Biofuels, by Sebastián Zapata Ramirez, Isaac Dyner, Carlos Franco  Abstract  Paper

Cellulosic Feedstock Biofuel Feasibility for Automotive Use, by Leonard Malczynski  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Electricity Infrastructure, chaired by Isaac Dyner

Evaluating Scenarios of Capacity Expansion given High Seasonal Variability of Electricity Demand: The Case of Saudi Arabia, by Ross Collins, Waleed Gowharji, Abdulelah Habib, Rayed Alwajeeh, Stephen Connors  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Using System Dynamics to Define, Study, and Implement Smart Control Strategies on the Electric Power Grid, by Robert Jeffers, Lyle Roybal  Abstract

Simulating the Value of Advanced Electricity Storage: Initial Results from a Case Study of the Ontario Power System, by Andrew Ford  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Nuclear and Gas, chaired by Frederick Kautz

A System Dynamics Study of Uranium and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, by Matthew Rooney, William Nuttall, Nikolas Kazantzis  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Modeling the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Agent Based Approach, by Abdellatif Yacout  Abstract

A system dynamics approach to the expansion of liquefaction capacity in the LNG industry, by Yris Olaya, Sebastian Osorio  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Nonrenewable Resources, chaired by Wil Thissen

Modelling the Raw Water Demand of a Dry-Cooled, Coal-Fired Power Plant: A System Dynamics Approach, by Akashnie Raghu, Nalini Pillay  Abstract  Paper

(Un)desired Tantalum?, by Willem Auping, Erik Pruyt  Abstract  Supporting

A Supply Demand Model for Exploration of the Future of the Dutch Gas Sector, by Sibel Eker, Cornelia van Daalen  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Electricity: Environment and efficiency, chaired by Wayne Wakeland

Assessing policy for mitigating greenhouse gases in electricity, by Laura Cardenas, Carlos Franco, Isaac Dyner  Abstract

Exploring carbon futures in the EU power sector, by Erwin Loonen, Erik Pruyt, Caner Hamarat  Abstract  Paper

Electricity Market Coupling: Latin America vs. Europe, by Camila Ochoa, Ann van Ackere  Abstract  Paper


Parallel: Security Theories and Measurements, chaired by Corey Lofdahl

Towards a Dynamic Theory of Serial Insurgencies, by Edward Anderson  Abstract

Proposal of a 'Goldilocks' Methodology for the Assessment of an International Crisis, by Stefano Armenia, Angelo De Angelis  Abstract  Paper

Extending Opinion Polls through the Combination of Analytical and Simulation Models, by Bruce Skarin, Robert McCormack, Ian Yohai  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Parallel: Public Safety and Security, chaired by Elise Axelrad

Model-based Policing to Fight High Impact Crime, by Erik Pruyt, Marleen Ribbens  Abstract

A System Dynamics Model for Investigating Early Detection of Insider Threat Risk, by Andrew Moore, David Mundie, Matthew Collins  Abstract  Paper

Policy Simulation in a Warzone: System dynamics in Afghanistan, by Corey Lofdahl  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Poster: Conflict, defense, and security poster session

State Security Dynamics and the Impact of Intervention to Build Country Capacity, by James Enos, John Farr  Abstract  Paper

Limits to Population Growth and Water Resource Adequacy in the Nile River Basin, 1994-2100, by Bruce Keith, James Enos, **lost**, **lost**, Daniel Copeland, Mario Cortez  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Timeframe for investing in cyber security does matter: A brand value argument, by Munaf Aamir, Walt Beyeler, Andjelka Kelic, Michael Mitchell  Abstract  Supporting

Innovation and Learning in Terrorist Organizations: A Complex Adaptive System Framework, by Nancy Hayden  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

A model-based study and policy analysis of Domestic Violence and Sexual Harassment against Women and Children, by Mahtab Sharifi, Irene George, Erik Pruyt  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Exploring Policy and Initiative Decision Making in a Dynamic Conflict Environment, by Stefanie Anderson, Matthew Strickland  Abstract  Paper


Stakeholder Engagement
Parallel: Lessons from stakeholder engagement applications, chaired by Etiënne Rouwette

When your goals do not address your concerns: Lessons learned from a mediated model to support regional planning in Wellington, by Hendrik Stouten, Marjan van den Belt, Vicky Forgie  Abstract  Paper

Process Insights from Using Group Model Building to Address Emergency Department Use for Pediatric Asthma Treatment, by Jill Kuhlberg, Jeanine Arrighi, Cindy Pulley, William Kincaid  Abstract  Paper

Evaluating long-term impact of qualitative system dynamics workshops on participant mental models, by Rodney Scott, Robert Cavana, Donald Cameron  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Information Gathering and Stakeholder Communication, chaired by Krystyna Stave

Eramat! A Culturally-Anchored Board Game Simulator for Maasai Pastoralists in Southern Kenya, by Jacob Loorimirim Mayiani, Michael Deaton, Jennifer Coffman, Alexandra Hickling  Abstract  Paper

Group Model Building to Support Interdisciplinary Theory Building, by Luis Luna-Reyes, Weijia Ran, Holly Jarman, Jing Zhang, Deborah Andersen, Giri Tayi, Djoko Sayogo, Joanne Luciano, David Andersen  Abstract  Paper

Dynamic Modelling of User Satisfaction: the Case of the Bangkok Mass Transit System, by Worapong Tangkitsiri, Stephen Ogunlana, Adekunle Oyegoke, Michael Oladokun  Abstract  Paper

Parallel: Considerations for Stakeholder Engagement, chaired by Rebecca Niles

Reviewing the Role of Stakeholders in Operational Research: Opportunities for Group Model Building, by Vincent de Gooyert, Etiënne Rouwette, Hans van Kranenburg  Abstract

Knowledge analysis in coupled social-ecological systems, by Maria Saldarriaga, Birgit Kopainsky, Stephen Alessi  Abstract  Paper

Participatory Modeling in Environmental Systems: Learning from the System Dynamics Tradition, by Laura Schmitt Olabisi  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Stakeholder Engagement

Addressing stakeholder conflicts in rural South Africa using a water supply model, by Floortje d'Hont, Jai Clifford-Holmes, Jill Slinger  Abstract  Paper  Supporting

Strategies for University Growth: A System Dynamics Analysis of Organizational Change, by Raafat Zaini, Michael Radzicki, Khalid Saeed, Oleg Pavlov, Allen Hoffman, Kristin Tichenor  Abstract  Paper  Supporting


Parallel: Resource Based View of Strategy and Change, chaired by Don Frazier

Strategic Resource Management under Causal Ambiguity - The Dynamic Resource-based view approach, by Kenneth Huh  Abstract  Paper

Organisational Flexibility : a simulation model, by Amaia Sopelana, Martin Kunc  Abstract  Paper

Effects of Aging Resources on Firm and Industry Dynamics, by Scott Rockart  Abstract

Parallel: Goals and Resource Allocation Strategy, chaired by Martin Kunc

Stretch Goals, Managerial Responses, and the Distribution of Performance, by Shayne Gary, Miles Yang, Phillip Yetton, John Sterman  Abstract  Paper

Strategic Resource Management under Causal Ambiguity - An Empirical Study of Resource Management Dynamics, by Kenneth Huh  Abstract  Paper

R&D Project Portfolio in Research and Development, Part of a Whole in R&D Strategy, by Araz Khodabakhshian, Mohsen Khosravi, Ali Mashayekhi  Abstract  Paper

Poster: Strategy

Modeling Dynamic Transitions in the Global Air Transportation System, by Denes Csala, Sgouris Sgouridis  Abstract  Paper

Exploring strategic responses of the automotive industry during the transition to electric mobility: a system dynamics approach, by Christoph Mazur, Marcello Contestabile, Gregory Offer, Nigel Brandon  Abstract  Paper

Anticipating Future of Android: Role of Quality Gate Keeping, by Abhinay Puvvala, Rahul Roy  Abstract  Paper

High-Value Outsourcing: Impact of Team Structure and Capabilities on Complex and Uncertain Offshoring Projects, by Abhijit Mandal, Saikat Chaudhuri  Abstract  Supporting


System Dynamics Society