Conference Proceedings
The 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA -- July 21-25, 2013

ISBN 978-1-935056-12-06

Papers, workshops and other presentations and events presented at the conference are listed alphabetically by the last name of the first author, chair or presenter. To find a paper by an author who is not the first author, simply search on the author's name. Papers are Acrobat (.pdf) files and can be read using Acrobat Reader available from adobe.com. Supporting materials are usually archives or models which may require additional software (details). Links, when shown, were supplied by the authors and were current at the time of publication. In addition, there is a color version of the printed abstract proceedings given to conference attendees.


Papers

Aamir, Munaf with Walt Beyeler, Andjelka Kelic and Michael Mitchell   Timeframe for investing in cyber security does matter: A brand value argument   Abstract Supporting

Alexandersdottir, Bryndís with Helgi Ingason and Brynhildur Davidsdottir   Improving Efficiency and Capacity in Primary Health Care in Iceland Using System Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Almaguer Prado, Pedro Dagoberto with Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro, Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro, Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro and Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez   Diabetes Learning Lab in Stella 10   Abstract Paper

Almaguer Prado, Pedro Dagoberto with Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro, Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro, Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro and Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez   [Pollen learning lab]® to improve the public education system (new)   Abstract Paper

Almaguer Prado, Pedro Dagoberto with Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro, Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro, Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro and Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez   The beer game in Stella 10   Abstract Paper

Amini, Yalda with Sina Jangali Kasmaei, Golnoosh Sharifan, Gholamreza Eslamifar and Ashkan Aghdai   A system dynamics approach to clarify the impacts of state loans on real estate market in Iran   Abstract Paper Supporting

Anderson, Edward   Towards a Dynamic Theory of Serial Insurgencies   Abstract

Anderson, Stefanie with Matthew Strickland   Exploring Policy and Initiative Decision Making in a Dynamic Conflict Environment   Abstract Paper

Ansah, John with David Matchar   A Patient Flow Model of Singapore’s Healthcare System   Abstract Paper

Ardila, Laura with Carlos Franco   Policy analysis to boost the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in the Colombian market   Abstract Paper Supporting

Armenia, Stefano with Angelo De Angelis   Proposal of a 'Goldilocks' Methodology for the Assessment of an International Crisis   Abstract Paper

Aschauer, Gerald   The development of sustainable transports through the right logistics strategy – a system dynamics approach   Abstract Paper

Atzori, Alberto Stanislao with Luis Tedeschi and Stefano Armenia   Dairy Business: Farmer Education Enables Precision Farming   Abstract Paper Supporting

Auping, Willem with Erik Pruyt and Thomas Logtens   Ageing and the Sustainability of Public Expenditure: SD Based Policy Analysis   Abstract Supporting

Auping, Willem with Erik Pruyt   (Un)desired Tantalum?   Abstract Supporting

Bacaksizlar, Gizem with Nisa Onsel   Modeling the Dynamics of Methylmercury Biomagnification   Abstract Paper Supporting

Bachurina, Anna   Model validation: matching data and structure to behavior through partial model calibration in Group Model Building setting   Abstract Paper

Baena, Andrea with Camilo Olaya   Social Housing in Colombia: A case for Social Systems Engineering   Abstract Paper Supporting

Banaei, Mohammad Mehdi with Jamshid Parvizian   Housing project for the poor A plan with no aim   Abstract Paper

Barlas, Yaman with Tugrul Meker   Dynamic Impacts of Performance Based Payment System on Public Hospitals in Turkey   Abstract Paper

Batchelder, Abigail with David Lounsbury, Anton Palma, Ellie Schoenbaum and Jeffrey Gonzalez   Using system dynamics to apply syndemic theory to women with and at-risk for HIV   Abstract Paper Supporting

Becerra Fernandez, Mauricio with Javier Orjuela Castro, Olga Romero Quiroga and Milton Herrera Ramirez   Model for Calculating Operational Capacities in Service Providers Using System Dynamics   Abstract Paper Supporting

Berry, Bob   How a CEO Can Create a Sustainable Competitive Advantage by Modeling the Company as a Dynamic System   Abstract Paper Link from authors

Bianchi, Nicola with Roberto Marcialis   The endogenous genesis of Etruscan proto-cities: System Dynamics as a tool for historians   Abstract Paper Supporting

Bier, Asmeret with Ben Anderson   Cooperation and Learning in Cyber Security Training Exercises   Abstract Paper

Bishwas, Sumant with Sushil Sushil   Critical Issues for Organizational Growth and Success: A Systems Thinking View using Feedback Loop Analysis   Abstract Paper

Blaskovich, Frank   Developing a Fair and Robust Energy Policy   Abstract Paper Supporting

Bleijenbergh, Inge with Brigit Fokkinga   Increasing part-time working hours in the Netherlands. Identifying policy recommendations through Group Model Building   Abstract Paper

Boyd, Andrew   Facility Conditions: A System Dynamics Review of the CSU Capital Outlay Program and its Impacts to the CSU, Chico Campus   Abstract Paper Supporting

Brockhaus, Friederike with Jana Arnold, Marcus Schwarz and Peter Sedlmeier   Does Modification of Representation Format Affect Stock–Flow Thinking?   Abstract Paper

Buendia, Fernando   Business Competition as a Complex System: A System Dynamics Approach   Abstract

Buendia, Fernando   Cities as Complex Systems   Abstract

Cai, Lin with Ying Liu   Application of System Dynamics for Municipal Waste Management in China: A Case Study of Beijing   Abstract Paper Supporting

Can, Melike with Aybek Korugan and Yaman Barlas  A Dynamic Simulation Model for Insulin Resistance and Type II Diabetes in the Context of Obesity   Abstract Paper

Cardenas, Laura with Carlos Franco and Isaac Dyner   Assessing policy for mitigating greenhouse gases in electricity   Abstract

Castaneda, Monica with Isaac Dyner and Carlos Franco   Assessing the new electricity-market reform in GB with the support of SD   Abstract

Cave, Siôn with Andrew Woodward and Graham Willis   Robust workforce planning for the English medical workforce   Abstract Paper

Ceresia, Francesco   The Dynamics of the Organizational Culture in a Municipality   Abstract Paper

Ceresia, Francesco with Giovan Battista Montemaggiore   Applying the System Dynamics Approach in Evaluating Clinical Risk Management Policies in Three Healthcare Companies   Abstract Paper

Chaim, Ricardo   SOA Governance Dynamics for IT Organizations   Abstract Paper

Chan, Kee with Deborah Polk and Chris Sheldrick   Decision thresholds in developmental-behavioral screening: Gaining insight through system dynamics modeling   Abstract Paper Supporting

Choi, Minji with Moonseo Park, Hyun-Soo Lee, Sungjoo Hwang and Chanhyuk Park   Dynamic Strategies for Apartment Brand Management in Korean Housing Market   Abstract Paper

Chung, ChangKwon   Exploratory Study on Emerging Market Entry Strategy - Systems Thinking Approach   Abstract Paper

Cintron, Jose with Wilawan Onkham, Luis Rabelo and Alfonso Sarmiento   A Framework for Measuring the Value-Added of Knowledge Processes with Analysis of Process Interactions and Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Collins, Ross with Waleed Gowharji, Abdulelah Habib, Rayed Alwajeeh and Stephen Connors   Evaluating Scenarios of Capacity Expansion given High Seasonal Variability of Electricity Demand: The Case of Saudi Arabia   Abstract Paper Supporting

Csala, Denes with Sgouris Sgouridis   Modeling Dynamic Transitions in the Global Air Transportation System   Abstract Paper

Cucchiaro, Stephen   A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling the Global Capital Markets   Abstract Paper

d'Hont, Floortje with Jai Clifford-Holmes and Jill Slinger   Addressing stakeholder conflicts in rural South Africa using a water supply model   Abstract Paper Supporting

Daly, Herbert   Pitfalls of Multi Method Modelling: Concepts and Comparisons   Abstract Paper

de Gooyert, Vincent with Etiënne Rouwette and Hans van Kranenburg   Reviewing the Role of Stakeholders in Operational Research: Opportunities for Group Model Building   Abstract

Deegan, Michael with Krystyna Stave, Roderick MacDonald, David Andersen, Minyoung Ku and Eliot Rich   Simulation-Based Learning Environments to Teach Complexity: The Missing Link in Teaching Sustainable Public Management   Abstract Paper Supporting

deWildt, Tristan   The Challenges of the French Electricity Generation Sector: an Analysis using ESDMA   Abstract Paper

Di Giulio, Vincenzo with Stefania Migliavacca, Vincenzo Durante, Paolo Torelli and Michela Giuliani   Muwait: a system dynamics model for municipal waste management in Italy   Abstract

Eker, Sibel with Cornelia van Daalen   A Supply Demand Model for Exploration of the Future of the Dutch Gas Sector   Abstract Paper Supporting

El Halabi, Ezzat with Matthew Doolan   Using Scenario Planning Data in System Dynamics Model Building   Abstract Paper

Elattar, Ahmed with Wilawan Onkham, Luis Rabelo and Muyuan Li   Effective Leadership using System Dynamics and the Matrix of Change   Abstract Paper

Enos, James with John Farr   State Security Dynamics and the Impact of Intervention to Build Country Capacity   Abstract Paper

Escalante, Nicolas   Model-Based Strategy Design for Biowaste Recovery in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia   Abstract Paper

Escalante, Nicolas   Exploratory Dynamic Analysis of the Adoption of Biowaste Separation Behavior in Households   Abstract Paper Supporting

Fahmi, Ali with Narges Bashirivand   Drug addiction rate and the state roles in decreasing addiction rate in Iran society; System dynamics approach   Abstract Paper Supporting

Fallah-Fini, Saeideh with Hazhir Rahmandad, Hsin-Jen Chen and Youfa Wang   Connecting Micro Dynamics and Population Distributions in System Dynamics Models   Abstract Paper

Faridyahyaie, Reza with Amin Faridyahyaie and Nader Mahmoudi   Marketing Effectiveness Improvement Analysis Based on System Dynamics Model   Abstract Paper Supporting

Farr, Warren   Value and Acceptance of System Dynamics in Business: Business Owner as SD Practitioner Perspective   Abstract Paper Supporting

Featherston, Charles with Matthew Doolan   Using System Dynamics to Inform Scenario Planning: A Case Study   Abstract Paper

Fiddaman, Thomas with Andrew Jones and John Sterman   Global Models from Malthus to C-Roads and Beyond   Abstract

Ford, Andrew   Simulating the Value of Advanced Electricity Storage: Initial Results from a Case Study of the Ontario Power System   Abstract Paper

Forest, Tom   Maya Apocalypse: Results of Varying Productivity, Consumption, Impacts, and Policies   Abstract Paper Supporting

Franco, Douglas   Dynamic Conservation of Money   Abstract Paper Supporting

Freeman, Rachel with Michael Yearworth, Maria Angulo and Tom Quested   Evidence building for waste prevention: understanding the causal influences that result in waste   Abstract Paper

Fryling, Meg with Jack Rivituso   Investigation of Cyberbullying Phenomenon as an Epidemic   Abstract Paper

Fugenschuh, Armin with Ingmar Vierhaus   A Global Approach to the Optimal Control of System Dynamics Models   Abstract Paper

Gambardella, Pascal with Charles Wainwright and Helen Jones-Kelleher   Corporate Training Dynamics and Insights   Abstract Paper Supporting

Gary, Shayne with Miles Yang, Phillip Yetton and John Sterman   Stretch Goals, Managerial Responses, and the Distribution of Performance   Abstract Paper

Garzia, Carmine   A Strategic Innovation System Dynamics Process Model   Abstract Paper

Ghaffarzadegan, Navid with Joshua Hawley and Anand Desai   Research Workforce Diversity: The Case of Balancing National vs. International Postdocs in U.S. Biomedical Research   Abstract

Glaiel, Firas with Allen Moulton and Stuart Madnick   Agile Project Dynamics: A System Dynamics Investigation of Agile Software Development Methods   Abstract Paper

Gloeser, Simon with Marcel Soulier   Using Dynamic Stock & Flow Models for Global and Regional Material and Substance Flow Analysis - An Example for Copper   Abstract Paper Supporting

Goldsmith, Daniel with John Lyneis   Unlocking the promise of patient engagement: the dynamics of patient portal adoption   Abstract Supporting

Gomez-Quintero, Juliana with Laura Guzman-Abello   Right timing: unseen delays and stocks in implementation of transport systems   Abstract Paper

Goncalves, Paulo with Michele Broggini   The Network Strategy of a Gas Distribution Company   Abstract Paper

Groesser, Stefan with Martin Schaffernicht   Elicitation of Mental Models of Dynamic Systems: Do Existing Elicitation Approaches Suffice?   Abstract

Guevara, Porfirio   Nonlinear Dynamics of Ghost Busters: Detecting Fraud with System Dynamics   Abstract

Hamarat, Caner with Erik Pruyt and Erwin Loonen   A Multi-Pathfinder for Developing Adaptive Robust Policies in System Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Han, UngKyu with Martin Kunc   Systems Thinking to Understand a Knowledge-producing Triple Helix Innovation Process   Abstract

Happach, Roland Maximilian with Meike Tilebein   The establishment of container-deposit on single-use beverage packaging in Germany   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hayden, Nancy   Innovation and Learning in Terrorist Organizations: A Complex Adaptive System Framework   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hennigan, Stephen   The Manager as Modeler   Abstract Paper

Hettesheimer, Tim with Christian Lerch   Future Trends of the automotive Li-Ion Battery Supply Chain in Germany – Dynamic effects on raw materials and employment   Abstract Paper

Homer, Jack   From the Archives: Models That Matter: Selected Writings on System Dynamics 1985-2010   Abstract

Hosseini Ezzabadi, Jamal with Mohammad Saryazdi   Impacts of Knowledge Management on Customers loyalty: System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper

Houghton, James with Michael Siegel and Daniel Goldsmith   Modeling the Influence of Narratives on Collective Behavior   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hovmand, Peter   First Four Years: A Case Study of Starting a Social System Design Lab   Abstract Supporting

Howell, Rachel with Onno Wesselink and Erik Pruyt   Using System Dynamics to model the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Botswana and Uganda   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hu, Bo with Joachim Block, Armin Leopold and Stefan Pickl   Inclusive growth and sustainable finance - a system dynamics model   Abstract Paper Supporting

Hughes, Christopher   Modeling Movie Release Strategies   Abstract Paper

Huh, Kenneth   Strategic Resource Management under Causal Ambiguity - The Dynamic Resource-based view approach   Abstract Paper

Huh, Kenneth   Strategic Resource Management under Causal Ambiguity - An Empirical Study of Resource Management Dynamics   Abstract Paper

Hwang, Sungjoo with Moonseo Park, Hyun-Soo Lee and Sang Hyun Lee   An Analysis of Post-disaster Resources Supply and Work Environment for Restoration Planning of Facilities   Abstract Paper

Jacobson, Jacob with Robert Jeffers   Bioenergy market competition for biomass: A system dynamics review of current policy   Abstract

Jaxa-Rozen, Marc with Muhammad Rihan Handaulah and Erik Pruyt   The impacts of biomass exploitation and carbon valuation on boreal forest management   Abstract

Jeffers, Robert   A Simulation Framework for Integrated Water and Energy Resource Planning   Abstract Paper

Jeffers, Robert with Lyle Roybal   Using System Dynamics to Define, Study, and Implement Smart Control Strategies on the Electric Power Grid   Abstract

Joglekar, Nitin   Disaggregation of a Stock Variable Based on Attribute Distribution   Abstract Paper Supporting

Jones, Charles   Achilles Can Catch the Tortoise: Alternative Goal-seeking Structures   Abstract Paper

Kaggwa, Martin   Social dimension of bio energy production policy in Africa: A systems thinking perspective   Abstract Paper Supporting

Kaggwa, Martin   Service delivery and service delivery protests in contemporary South Africa: A systems perspective   Abstract Paper Supporting

Kapmeier, Florian with Alexander Voigt   Pushing the Limits – Using System Dynamics to Forecast Short-Term Commodity Price Movements   Abstract Paper

Karumanchi, Vizaya Kumar   Electric Power Demand Scenarios – SD Approach   Abstract

Keith, Bruce with James Enos, Benjamin Garlick, Giancarlo Simmons, Daniel Copeland and Mario Cortez   Limits to Population Growth and Water Resource Adequacy in the Nile River Basin, 1994-2100   Abstract Paper Supporting

Khodabakhshian, Araz with Mohsen Khosravi and Ali Mashayekhi   R&D Project Portfolio in Research and Development, Part of a Whole in R&D Strategy   Abstract Paper

Khodabakhshian, Araz with Mohsen Khosravi and Ali Mashayekhi   Adverse Selection in SME Financing: When Both Bank and Innovative Entrepreneur Lose   Abstract Paper Supporting

Koca, Deniz with Takehiro Kawahara   Systems Analysis of the Impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami on Energy Supply System in Kamaishi-City   Abstract Paper

Kopainsky, Birgit with Gunda Zullich and Santiago Movilla Blanco   Adaptation to climate change in sub Saharan Africa. A multi-sector impact analysis for Burkina Faso   Abstract Paper

Kovari, András with Erik Pruyt   Lending to Small and Medium Enterprises: A Novel Approach to Credit Portfolio Management   Abstract Paper Supporting

Kreidler, Anja with Meike Tilebein   Diversity and Innovativeness in New Product Development Teams – Addressing Dynamic Aspects With Simulation   Abstract Paper Supporting

Kuehn, André with Michael Krail   Dynamic Demand Modeling of Freight Fleets   Abstract Paper Supporting

Kuhlberg, Jill with Jeanine Arrighi, Cindy Pulley and William Kincaid   Process Insights from Using Group Model Building to Address Emergency Department Use for Pediatric Asthma Treatment   Abstract Paper

Kuipers, Jurgen with Anika Rose   Keeping Students with the Curriculum: Using a Systems Dynamics Approach to Elementary Education   Abstract Paper Supporting

Kwakkel, Jan with Jos Timmermans   Limits to Planetary Fresh Water Use: A Multi-Model Investigation   Abstract Paper

LaVigne, Anne with Jennifer Andersen and Lees Stuntz   Teaching Characteristics of Complex Systems in K-12 Education: Lessons Learned   Abstract Paper

Lee, Man-Hyung with Nam Hee Choi and Won-Gyu Ha   Regional Strategic Industry (RSI) Promotion Projects and Their Impact on Regional Economic Growth   Abstract Paper

Lee, Seonghwi with Myoung Ho Lee and Hoon Huh   Construction of a Dynamic Model for Evolution of Korea Mobile Industry Ecosystem by System Dynamics   Abstract

Lewis, Jide   Modelling Sovereign Debt Induced Banking Crises: Theory, Application and Policy Conundrums   Abstract Paper

Lofdahl, Corey   Policy Simulation in a Warzone: System dynamics in Afghanistan   Abstract Paper Supporting

Loonen, Erwin with Erik Pruyt and Caner Hamarat   Exploring carbon futures in the EU power sector   Abstract Paper

Loorimirim Mayiani, Jacob with Michael Deaton, Jennifer Coffman and Alexandra Hickling   Eramat! A Culturally-Anchored Board Game Simulator for Maasai Pastoralists in Southern Kenya   Abstract Paper

Lopez, Luis with Roy Zuniga   Burnout and Floating Goals in High-Contact Service Operations   Abstract Paper Supporting

Luna-Reyes, Luis with Weijia Ran, Holly Jarman, Jing Zhang, Deborah Andersen, Giri Tayi, Djoko Sayogo, Joanne Luciano and David Andersen   Group Model Building to Support Interdisciplinary Theory Building   Abstract Paper

Malczynski, Leonard   Cellulosic Feedstock Biofuel Feasibility for Automotive Use   Abstract Paper

Mandal, Abhijit with Saikat Chaudhuri   High-Value Outsourcing: Impact of Team Structure and Capabilities on Complex and Uncertain Offshoring Projects   Abstract Supporting

Mannaerts, Aster with Cornelia van Daalen, J. van Luipen and S. A. Meijer   Supporting policy analysis in the Dutch rail sector using System Dynamics   Abstract Paper Supporting

Marinkovic, Milica with Federico Cosenz and Carmine Bianchi   A Dynamic Performance Management Approach to Evaluate and Support SMEs Competitiveness: Evidences from a Case Study   Abstract Paper

Martin-Mendez, Angela   Analysis of a serious accident emergency drill with a simulation model   Abstract Paper

Mayrand, Frederic with Luc Cassivi and Martin Cloutier   Critical Success Factors of the Offshore Outsourcing of Software Development Projects: A System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper

Mazur, Christoph with Marcello Contestabile, Gregory Offer and Nigel Brandon   Exploring strategic responses of the automotive industry during the transition to electric mobility: a system dynamics approach   Abstract Paper

Meijer, Karen with Maaike van Aalst and Aleksandra Dobreva   A Preliminary Qualitative Model for the Availability of Climate Adaptation Finance in Developing Countries   Abstract Paper

Meyer, Brad with Radostina Purvanova   Individual Performance in the Beer Game: Underweighting the Supply Line and the Impact of Personality   Abstract Paper

Mikulskiene, Birute with Daiva Mazrimiene   Transformative quality of doctoral education: the way new standards are negotiated. System dynamics approach   Abstract Paper

MohammadShirazi, Amir with Gholamreza Eslamifar, Masoomeh Khandan and Ashkan Aghdai   Anticipating complex behaviors of coercive actions in international relations   Abstract Supporting

Molina, Edmundo   Dynamics of the transition towards alternative fuel vehicles in advanced and emerging markets   Abstract Paper Supporting

Mollona, Edoardo   Deduction and abduction in computer simulation: Comparing logics in theory development   Abstract Paper

Moloney, Brendan with Matthew Doolan and Barry Newell   A System Dynamics Analysis of the Bottled Water Industry in the United States   Abstract Paper Supporting

Moore, Andrew with William Novak   Modeling the Evolution of a Science Project in Software-Reliant System Acquisition Programs   Abstract Paper

Moore, Andrew with David Mundie and Matthew Collins   A System Dynamics Model for Investigating Early Detection of Insider Threat Risk   Abstract Paper

Morrison, J. Bradley with Jenny Rudolph and John Carroll   From the Archives: The dynamics of action-oriented problem solving: linking interpretation and choice   Abstract

Morrison, J. Bradley   Debriefing as a System: Enhancing Reflection in Experiential Learning   Abstract

Moslemini, Ali with Mohammad Owlia and Khadijeh Gholami   Applying System dynamics to simulate Iran’s engineering post graduates employment status   Abstract Paper Supporting

Movilla Blanco, Santiago   Cost of Malaria Elimination in Kenya by Means of IVM Implementation   Abstract Paper

Mundra, Rohit with Khalid Saeed   Translating Between Laplace Domain Block Diagrams and System Dynamics Stock & Flow Diagrams   Abstract

Musango, Josephine with Alan Brent and Andrea Bassi   South African Green Economy Model (SAGEM)   Abstract Paper Supporting

Nachtrieb, Robert   System Dynamics Model of Residential and Commercial Lighting Markets   Abstract Paper Supporting

Nishi, Nobuo   A System Dynamics Model of Salt Reduction at a National Level   Abstract Paper Supporting

Nobre, Farley with Romeu Telma   Fuzzy Systems Perspectives on Cognition, Economics and Machines in Organizations   Abstract Paper

Ochoa, Camila with Ann van Ackere   Electricity Market Coupling: Latin America vs. Europe   Abstract Paper

Oet, Mikhail with Dieter Gramlich and Stephen Ong   Policy in Adaptive Financial Markets—The Use of Systemic Risk Early Warning Tools   Abstract Paper

Oladokun, Michael with Ibrahim Motawa and Phillip Banfill   A system dynamics-based model of the socio-technical systems of household energy and carbon emissions   Abstract Paper

Olaya, Yris with Sebastian Osorio   A system dynamics approach to the expansion of liquefaction capacity in the LNG industry   Abstract Paper Supporting

Onsel, Nisa with Emre Onsel and Gönenç Yucel   Evaluation of Alternative Dynamic Behavior Representations for Automated Model Output Classification and Clustering   Abstract Paper

Osgood, Nathaniel with Juxin Liu   Bayesian Parameter Estimation of System Dynamics Models Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods: An Informal Introduction   Abstract Paper

Osorio, Juan with Marcela Narvaez   Equivalent System Dynamics Model for Reliability Assessment   Abstract

Ozgun, Onur with Yaman Barlas   Complexity-Based Gaming Approach to Improve Learning from Simulation Games   Abstract Paper Supporting

Paisarnsrisomsuk, Sarun with Khalid Saeed, Peerapas Thongsawas and Pitchaya Wiratchotisatian   Flood damage in Bangkok: disaster or an opportunity for creative destruction   Abstract Paper

Pala, Özge with Etiënne Rouwette   Perception is more than time delays   Abstract

Papachristos, George with Christos Vasilopoulos   The shift to land value taxation: A tale of a different future   Abstract Paper

Park, Kyungbae   A System Dynamics Approach on Green Car Diffusion Strategy and the Korean case   Abstract Paper

Parvan, Kiavash with Hazhir Rahmandad and Ali Haghani   Empirical Study of Design-Construction Feedbacks in Building Construction Projects   Abstract Paper Supporting

Perez Salazar, Gloria   The Marijuana Market in Mexico: A System Dynamics Perspective   Abstract Paper

Peterson, Steve with Brian Bush, Emily Newes, Danny Inman, David Hsu, Laura Vimmerstedt and Dana Stright   An Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model   Abstract Paper

Pierson, Kawika   Cycles in Casualty: An Examination of Profit Cycles in the Insurance Industry   Abstract Paper Supporting

Polk, Madeleine with Mary McMiller, Josh Jennemann and Zhu Xiao   Re-Scaling the Parents as Teachers Program in Missouri   Abstract Paper Supporting

Polk, Madeleine   Developing Capacity for Systems Thinking in Schools   Abstract Paper Supporting

Pruyt, Erik with Marleen Ribbens   Model-based Policing to Fight High Impact Crime   Abstract

Pruyt, Erik with Jan Kwakkel and Caner Hamarat   Doing more with Models: Illustration of a SD Approach for Dealing with Deeply Uncertain Issues   Abstract Paper

Pruyt, Erik   Small SD Models for BIG ISSUES - The Book   Abstract Paper Supporting

Puvvala, Abhinay with Rahul Roy   Anticipating Future of Android: Role of Quality Gate Keeping   Abstract Paper

Qian, Ying with Nan Zhang, Shengxin Chen and Jianguo Jia   Study of Information Spreading on Micro-blogging based on SEIR model   Abstract Paper Supporting

Qin, Jing with Doina Olaru   System Dynamics Based Simulation for Airport Revenue Analysis   Abstract Paper Supporting

Rafferty, Martin   System Dynamics and stock markets   Abstract Paper Supporting

Raghu, Akashnie with Nalini Pillay   Modelling the Raw Water Demand of a Dry-Cooled, Coal-Fired Power Plant: A System Dynamics Approach   Abstract Paper

Rahmandad, Hazhir with Mohammad Jalali and Hamed Ghoddusi   Estimation of Unknown Parameters in Dynamic Models Using the Method of Simulated Moments (MSM)   Abstract Paper

Ran, Weijia with Holly Jarman, Luis Luna-Reyes, Jing Zhang, Deborah Andersen, Giri Tayi, Djoko Sayogo, Joanne Luciano and David Andersen   Supply-Chain Transparency and Governance Systems: Market Penetration of the I-Choose System   Abstract Paper Supporting

Randers, Jorgen   2052 – A Global Forecast for the next Forty Years Using a Mix of Models   Abstract Paper

Rockart, Scott   Effects of Aging Resources on Firm and Industry Dynamics   Abstract

Rooney, Matthew with William Nuttall and Nikolas Kazantzis   A System Dynamics Study of Uranium and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle   Abstract Paper Supporting

Rossert, Bertrand   Abstract System Dynamics and its Application to Corporate Governance Analysis   Abstract Paper

Rust, Tom with Khalid Saeed, Isa Bar-On and Oleg Pavlov   Adapting ‘Agility’ to Healthcare Service Delivery   Abstract Paper

Ruutu, Sampsa with Heidi Auvinen, Anu Tuominen, Toni Ahlqvist and Juha Oksanen   Simulation of Transitions Towards Emission-Free Urban Transport   Abstract Paper Supporting

Ryzhenkov, Alexander   Employment-Centred Stabilisation Policy Propelling the Economy to “Escape Velocity”   Abstract Paper Supporting

Saad, Fady   Modeling and Comparing a Startup Dynamics in the US and Egypt   Abstract Paper

Saeed, Khalid   Three slices of Jay Forrester’s general theory of economic behavior: An interpretation   Abstract Paper Supporting

Sakhrani, Vivek with Ahmad Alabdulkareem, Adnan Alsaati, Anas Alfaris, Noelle Selin and Olivier de Weck   A Risk-based Evaluation of Policies for Sustainable Water System Design in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia   Abstract Paper Supporting

Saldarriaga, Maria with Birgit Kopainsky and Stephen Alessi   Knowledge analysis in coupled social-ecological systems   Abstract Paper

Sanches, Lars with Orlando Lima and Janaina Pinto   Freight Vehicle Circulation Restriction Policy in an Emerging Country Metropolitan Area: undesired impacts   Abstract Paper

Santos, Erico with Taly Nahmias, Julianne Archipavas, Gustavo Felipe Galli e Silva and Alberto Traverso Sienra   Case study: Scenario and Risk Analysis in the Pulp Industry using System Dynamics and Monte Carlo Simulation   Abstract Paper

Santos, Erico   Simulating Government Policies for the Ethanol Market in Brazil   Abstract Paper Supporting

Schaffernicht, Martin with Bärbel Furstenau   Exploring the mutual benefits of collaboration with Concept Mapping – preliminary results and some puzzles   Abstract Paper Supporting

Schaffernicht, Martin with Stefan Groesser   Absent or distant? On the use of indirect causal links and chains of causal links to compare mental models of dynamic systems   Abstract Paper Supporting

Schaffernicht, Martin with Stefan Groesser   Learning objectives for successive development stages of system dynamics competency   Abstract Paper Supporting

Schmitt Olabisi, Laura   Participatory Modeling in Environmental Systems: Learning from the System Dynamics Tradition   Abstract Paper

Schwarz, Marcus with Saskia Epperlein, Friederike Brockhaus and Peter Sedlmeier   Effects of Illustrations, Specific Contexts, and Instructions: Further Attempts to Improve Stock–Flow Task Performance   Abstract Paper Supporting

Scott, Rodney with Robert Cavana and Donald Cameron   Evaluating long-term impact of qualitative system dynamics workshops on participant mental models   Abstract Paper

Sedlmeier, Peter with Friederike Brockhaus and Marcus Schwarz   Visual integration with stock-flow models: How far can intuition carry us?   Abstract Paper

Shamsuddoha, Mohammad with Mohammed Quaddus and Desmond Klass   Poultry Supply Chain: A System Approach   Abstract Paper Supporting

Sharifi, Mahtab with Irene George and Erik Pruyt   A model-based study and policy analysis of Domestic Violence and Sexual Harassment against Women and Children   Abstract Paper Supporting

Shilling, John   Eco-Eco-System Dynamics   Abstract Paper Supporting Link from authors

Shin, Mingyu with Hyun-Soo Lee, Moonseo Park and Seulbi Lee   An Analysis of Mental Process within Construction Workforces for Project-level Safety Management   Abstract Paper

Sigurdardottir, Sigridur with Jónas Vioarsson and Sveinn Margeirsson   A system dynamics approach to assess the impact of policy changes in the Icelandic demersal fishery   Abstract Paper

Skarin, Bruce with Robert McCormack and Ian Yohai   Extending Opinion Polls through the Combination of Analytical and Simulation Models   Abstract Paper Supporting

Skribans, Valerijs with Arnis Lektauers and Yuri Merkuryev   Third Generation University Strategic Planning Model Development   Abstract Paper

Sopelana, Amaia with Martin Kunc   Organisational Flexibility : a simulation model   Abstract Paper

Sorasalmi, Tomi with Riitta Nieminen-Sundell and Peter Ylen   A Dynamic Analysis of Socio-Technical Transition towards Bio-Economy   Abstract Paper

Soufivand, Mona with Enzo Bivona and Marco Alessi   A System Dynamics Approach to Enhance Tourism Service Delivery Performance through Value Co-Creation   Abstract Paper

Stahlschmidt, Mary Jo   The Capability Trap and Implementation of Evidence-based Practice in Child Protective Services   Abstract

Stouten, Hendrik with Marjan van den Belt and Vicky Forgie   When your goals do not address your concerns: Lessons learned from a mediated model to support regional planning in Wellington   Abstract Paper

Stuntz, Lees with George Richardson, Peter Hovmand, Anne LaVigne and Paul Newton   Fearless Use of System Dynamics in Education – How You Can Make a Difference!   Abstract

Sushil, Sushil with Arnab Mitra   Impact of Flexibility on Risk Management in an Indian Pharmaceutical Manufacturer – A system dynamics approach   Abstract Paper

Tabacaru, Mihaela with Helen Fischer   Do People Possess a Global and Ordinal Understanding of Accumulation? An Experimental Study   Abstract Paper Supporting

Tangkitsiri, Worapong with Stephen Ogunlana, Adekunle Oyegoke and Michael Oladokun   Dynamic Modelling of User Satisfaction: the Case of the Bangkok Mass Transit System   Abstract Paper

Thornton, Melanie with Liz Allen and Allyson Beall   Teaching top-down modeling to bottom-up thinkers: A report from the initial phase of a collaborative watershed-modeling project   Abstract Paper

Tignor, Warren   System Dynamics Endogenous Mental Models   Abstract Paper

Tong, Hefeng with Weishuang Qu and John Shilling   Assessing Future Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels of China   Abstract Paper

Tsaples, Georgios with Erik Pruyt, András Kovari and Christos Vasilopoulos   A Shock to the System: How can Land Value Taxation change the Face of Cities?   Abstract Paper Supporting

Tsaples, Georgios with Meropi Nassikas   Epidemiology of Cytomegalovirus   Abstract Paper Supporting

Turan, Özlem with Dolunay Ugur and Yaman Barlas   Dynamics of Consumerism and Credit Card Debt under the Influence of Advertising   Abstract Paper Supporting

Turner, Ben with Luis Tedeschi, Roger Gates, Tim Nichols, Melissa Wuellner and Barry Dunn   An Investigation into Land Use Changes and Consequences in the Northern Great Plains Using Systems Thinking and Dynamics   Abstract Paper Supporting

Uehara, Takuro with Yoko Nagase and Wayne Wakeland   Integrating Economics and System Dynamics Approaches for Modeling an Ecological-Economic System   Abstract Paper Supporting

Utama, Ginanjar   On Component Based Modeling Approach using System Dynamics for The Financial System (With a Case Study of Keen-Minsky Model)   Abstract Paper

van den Belt, Marjan with Vicky Forgie, Mike Scott, Anna Frampton and Ahmad Obeidat   Solution-oriented Systems Thinking Archetypes; examples of the Manawatu River, New Zealand   Abstract Paper

van Nistelrooij, Bert with Etiënne Rouwette, Jac Vennix and Ilse Verstijnen   The eye of the beholder: exploring the dynamics of regional differences in cataract treatment   Abstract

van Staveren, Rick with Andrew Thompson   Legalization of Cannabis in the USA: A System Dynamics Approach to Drug Policy   Abstract Paper

Vasilopoulos, Christos with Erik Pruyt and Tushith Islam   Stress-Testing Banks under Deep Uncertainty   Abstract Paper

Vernon, Mona   Implications of The Rate of Organizational Learning on Value Capture in the Digital Economy   Abstract Paper Supporting

Villa Betancur, Sebastian with Paulo Goncalves and Santiago Arango   Exploring Retailer’s Ordering Decisions under Delays   Abstract Paper

Voyer, John with Herbert Smoluk   A System Dynamics Examination of the “Spirit of Capitalism”   Abstract Paper

Wahba, Khaled with Naglaa Fahmy   The Utilization of System Dynamics in Concluding Policies for Greater Cairo Sustainable Development   Abstract Paper

Wakeland, Wayne with Alexandra Nielsen   Modeling opioid addiction treatment policies using system dynamics   Abstract Paper Supporting

Wang, Tao with Chester Labedz   Systemic Analysis in Legislating: Modeling the “Cash for Clunkers” Stimulus   Abstract Paper Supporting

Wheat, David with Aklilu Tadesse, Mang Li and Glenn Lewis   Teaching Policy Design, Using a Case Study of Unintended Consequences when the EU Regulates Hospital Doctors’ Hours   Abstract Paper

White, J. Chris with Robert Sholtes   The Top 7 Myths About System Dynamics   Abstract

White, Robert with David Ford   Dynamic Drivers of Successful Social Impact Bonds   Abstract Paper Supporting

Wicaksono, Gunawan   The Dynamics of Indonesian’s Currency Crisis in 1997   Abstract Paper

Woodward-Hagg, Heather with Isa Bar-On   Large System Transformation within Healthcare Organizations utilizing Lean Deployment Strategies   Abstract Paper

Xiao, Zhu with Masha Serdyukova and Rachel Binstock   If the hillock does not survive, the community does not survive: Insights from the SD Winter Institute in Andhra Pradesh   Abstract Paper Supporting

Yacout, Abdellatif   Modeling the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Agent Based Approach   Abstract

Yadav, Neetu with Sushil Sushil   Developing "System Dynamics-based" Flexible Strategy Game-card: Exploring Performance of the Indian Telecom Service Providers   Abstract Paper Supporting

Yamashita, Takayuki   Exchange Rates and Deindustrialization: Japanese Experiences   Abstract Paper Supporting

Yan, Min-Ren with Hsin-Ke Lu and Yi-Hsiu Cheng   A Case Study of the Value-driven Feedback System for Quality Culture Improvements in the Project-based Organizations   Abstract

Yasarcan, Hakan with Taner Bilgic   Control Formulations for a Stock Management Problem with a Delay in Measuring and Reporting   Abstract

Yucel, Gönenç   Facilitating Diffusion of Innovations Through Niche Management Strategies   Abstract Paper

Yun, JinHyo with Dong Kyu Won, Byung Yong Hwang, WooYoung Jung and Dong-Hwan Kim   Exploration of the Effects of Open Innovation Policies on National Innovation Systems through System Dynamics Simulation: Apply   Abstract Paper Supporting

Zaini, Raafat with Michael Radzicki, Khalid Saeed, Oleg Pavlov, Allen Hoffman and Kristin Tichenor   Strategies for University Growth: A System Dynamics Analysis of Organizational Change   Abstract Paper Supporting

Zapata Ramirez, Sebastián with Isaac Dyner and Carlos Franco   Assessing the Liberalization of Biofuels   Abstract Paper

Zawedde, Aminah with Ddembe Williams   Determinants of Requirements Process Improvement Success   Abstract Paper Supporting

Zhuang, Yilin with Qiong Zhang   Integrated Water Resources Management Incorporating Water Quality, Energy Consumption and Ecological Requirement   Abstract Paper

Zimmermann, Nicole   Monetary Incentives as a Fix that Fails with Reciprocal Employees   Abstract Supporting



Workshops

Bean, Michael   Getting Started with Forio: Turn Your Model into a Web Simulation   Abstract Link from authors

Borshchev, Andrei with Scott Hebert   Getting to Know AnyLogic - Agent-Based and Multi-Method modeling in AnyLogic   Abstract Paper Supporting Link from authors

Browne, Chris with Barry Newell and Paul Compston   Building Better Mental Models of the Impact of Anthropogenic GHG Emissions - a Hands-On Activity   Abstract Supporting Link from authors

Egner, Joanne with Karim Chichakly and William Schoenberg   Getting Started with STELLA and iThink   Abstract Supporting

Egner, Joanne with William Schoenberg and Karim Chichakly   Creating Simulations for the Web with STELLA and iThink   Abstract Supporting

Fiddaman, Thomas   Model Analysis with Vensim and Classic Global Models   Abstract Link from authors

Fiddaman, Thomas   Getting Started with Vensim   Abstract Link from authors

Fiddaman, Thomas   Optimization with Vensim   Abstract Link from authors

Hovmand, Peter with Etiënne Rouwette   Scriptapedia 4.0: A Tool for Designing “Scripted” Group Model Building Workshops   Abstract Paper Supporting

Malczynski, Leonard   Powersim Studio User Group and Advanced Techniques with Powersim Studio   Abstract Paper Link from authors

Malczynski, Leonard   Getting Started with Powersim Studio   Abstract Supporting Link from authors

Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio   System Dynamics Model Documentation and Assessment Tool (SDM-Doc)   Abstract Link from authors

Meadows, Dennis   FishBanks in Teaching   Abstract

Morecroft, John with Martin Kunc   World Dynamics Revisited   Abstract Paper Supporting

Rooney-Varga, Juliette with John Sterman, Travis Franck, Elizabeth Sawin, Andrew Jones and Janot Mendler de Suarez   Games for a New Climate: Leveraging Immersive, Situated Learning Experiences for Climate Change Education and Decision Support   Abstract Link from authors

Savitzky, Adam with Michael Bean and Westley Hennigh   Schneider Trucking Game: A Multiplayer Simulation on the iPad   Abstract Supporting

Spencer, Christina with Kim Warren and Christopher Spencer   Getting Started with Sysdea Online Modeling Software   Abstract Link from authors

Spencer, Christina   Rapid Modeling and Teaching with Sysdea Online System Dynamics Software   Abstract Link from authors

White, J. Chris with Robert Sholtes   Getting Started with the Beer Game on Steroids (BGOS)   Abstract Link from authors



Other Presentations and Events

Anderson, Edward   Practitioners' Roundtable   Abstract

Armenia, Stefano   SYstem Dynamics Italian Chapter (SYDIC) Annual Meeting   Abstract Link from authors

Arthur, Daniel   Geoff Coyle: legacy and prospects for system dynamics - Video Presentation   Abstract

Bayer, Steffen with Daniel Arthur   UK Chapter Roundtable and Annual Meeting   Abstract

Bier, Asmeret   Environmental Roundtable and Environmental SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Browne, Chris   Student Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract Link from authors

Cronin, Matthew with Anna Mayo   Assessing Systems Thinking Across Skill Levels   Abstract

Custodio, Isaías with Aldo Zagonel, Marciano Morozowski and Elias Cesar de Carvalho   Brazil Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Duggan, Jim with Gönenç Yucel   Model Analysis Roundtable and SIG-MA Annual Meeting   Abstract

Dyner, Isaac with Stian Hackett   Energy Roundtable and Energy SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Forrester, Jay with Khalid Saeed   A Fireside Chat   Abstract Link to Video

Groesser, Stefan   Swiss Chapter Annual Meeting and Roundtable   Abstract

Hirsch, Gary with Bobby Milstein and Jack Homer   Using the ReThink Health Model of Local Health System Reform (hosted by the Health Policy SIG)   Abstract

John, Klaus   Economics Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

John, Klaus   Economics Chapter Roundtable   Abstract

Jones, Andrew   Interactive Experimentation with a Policy-Maker-Oriented Global Energy and Climate Simulator   Abstract Link from authors

Kapmeier, Florian   German Chapter Informal Gathering   Abstract

Kautz, Frederick   Business SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract Paper

Kennedy, Michael with Carol Frances, Richard Langheim and P. Jeffrey Potash   Education SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Kwakkel, Jan   Benelux Roundtable and Benelux Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Lounsbury, David with Ralph Levine   Psychology Roundtable and Psychology SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Malczynski, Leonard   American Experience's Earth Days   Abstract Link from authors

Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio with Edward Anderson   Conflict, Defense, and Security SIG Roundtable and Annual Meeting   Abstract Supporting Link from authors

Milling, Peter   Last Call Documentary Introduction and Screening   Abstract Link from authors

Morecroft, John   Dana Meadows Award Announcement   Abstract Citation for Winner Link

Morrison, J. Bradley   Health Care Adventures at the Center for Medical Simulation   Abstract Paper

Park, Randy   Canada Chapter Roundtable and Annual Meeting   Abstract

Perez Salazar, Gloria   Latin America Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract Link from authors

Qian, Ying   China Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract Paper

Richardson, John  Lifetime Achievement Award Recipient   Abstract Citation by Jack Homer Citation by Dennis Meadows Presentation by John Richardson

Rogers, Jim with Edward Gallaher   Biomedical Roundtable and Biomedical SIG Annual Meeting   Abstract

Sterman, John, with Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin and Lori Siegel System Dynamics Applications Award Recipient Paper "Climate Interactive: The C-ROADS Climate Policy Model"   Abstract Citation by Brad Morrison Link to Publication

Stave, Krystyna with Jeff Trailer   Exploring Ideas for Broadening Access to System Dynamics Learning: MOOCs and more   Abstract

Uchino, Akira   Japan Chapter Annual Meeting   Abstract

Wakeland, Wayne   Health Policy Special Interest Group Business Meeting for Exploring Collaborations   Abstract

Warren, Kim   Presidential Address  Speech

System Dynamics Society
Conference Proceedings updated: November 25, 2013.