Abstract for: 2052 – A Global Forecast for the next Forty Years Using a Mix of Models
The book 2052 – A Global Forecast for the next Forty Years (Randers, 2012) contains just that: A description of what the author sees as the most likely scenario for global population, economy, climate gas emissions, and resource use over the next forty years. This paper describes the method used to arrive at the 2052 forecast. Building from the original Limits to Growth World3 model, the focus shifted to future climate gas emissions, as this appeared to be the tightest planetary constraint. Because of the likelihood of wildly different developments in different parts of the world, forecasting region by region was done using a spreadsheet model for each of 5 regions, with feedback among the regions done by manual iteration. External models were then used to calculate the resulting temperature change, the effect of climate change on agriculture, and the ecological footprint. Additional manual iterations followed before the results were checked against a World3-like model with explicit energy and climate sectors. The paper elaborates the weaknesses in this procedure, but argues that it is still possible to arrive at a credible forecast for the global development in the climate and resource area over the next forty years.