Abstract for: Nonlinear Dynamics of Ghost Busters: Detecting Fraud with System Dynamics
This article examines the extensive practice of cooking the numbers in primary education enrollment with “ghost students” and proposes a System Dynamics model to detect such practice. The model is defined as an endogenous closed system with non-overlapping sectors that complies with the law of conservation of matter; so, the number of students flowing into the education system must equal those who ever flow out. This ensures that, internally, people are not created artificially, as ghost students are in reality. A persistently larger-than- suggested-by-the-model enrollment rate suggests a kited student population and therefore the presence of activities to swindle public funds.