Abstract for: Germany's Electricity Industry in 2025: Evaluation of Portfolio Concepts

Combining System Dynamics model simulation and data analysis long-term development of electricity industry can be observed and anticipated regarding its reliability and total production cost under different assumed scenarios. In particular, different portfolio concepts to mitigate GHG emissions and to reduce fossil resource consumption are evaluated based on our highly aggregated electricity production and consumption model. Generally speaking, this innovative System Dynamics approach has not been widely used as a tool for optimizing asset structure of an energy portfolio yet. Nevertheless we favor a renewable load management concept which aims at the reshaping of load profile to fit the renewable electricity production output profile. In this context accurate forecasts of both load and production profiles are prerequisite for a well functioning load management. In the case of Germany our preliminary results show that a renewable load management concept may reduce the total production cost up to 2.7 B/year or 4.80 /MWh in 2025 while improving mitigation of GHG emissions from 31.2% to 34.7% (compared to 1990).