shock=
	5
	~	
	~		|

tsc=
	1.5
	~	
	~		|

Capital Goods Supply Chain= INTEG (
	+Capital Goods Production Start Rate-Capital Goods Production Rate,
		Initial Supply Chain)
	~	
	~		|

Investment=
	Capital Goods Production Rate
	~	
	~		|

Initial Capital Stock=
	5
	~	
	~		|

Capital Stock= INTEG (
	Capital Goods Production Rate-Depreciation,
		Initial Capital Stock)
	~	
	~		|

Capital Goods Production Rate=
	(Capital Goods Supply Chain/tsc)+(1/(1+supply elasticity))*Desired Investment+Depreciation
	~	
	~		|

Initial Supply Chain=
	9.9
	~	
	~		|

Capital Goods Production Start Rate=
	(supply elasticity/(1+supply elasticity))*Desired Investment
	~	
	~		|

Interest rate effect on Consumption(
	[(0.5,0)-(2,2)],(0.5,1.2),(1,1),(1.2,0.9),(1.4,0.8),(2,0.75))
	~	
	~		|

Interest Rate Effect on BP(
	[(0.8,0)-(2,2)],(0.8,1.2),(0.9,1.1),(1,1),(1.2,0.9),(1.5,0.85),(2,0.8))
	~	
	~		|

Capital Stock Adjustment=
	(Desired Additional Capital Stock-Capital Stock)/Average Time for Capital Adjustment
	~	
	~		|

b=
	10*(p)*Crowding Out Effect 1(Debt Relation)+10*(1-p)*Crowding Out Effect 2(Debt Relation\
		)
	~	
	~		|

Crowding Out Effect 1(
	[(0.5,0)-(8,3)],(0.5,0.947368),(1,1),(3.91743,1.13158),(6.37156,1.52632),(7.95413,1.92105\
		))
	~	
	~		|

Crowding Out Effect 2(
	[(0.5,0)-(8,4)],(0.5,0.6),(1,1),(2,1.52632),(2.5,2),(4.76606,3.42105),(8,4))
	~	
	~		|

Consumption=
	(C0 + PMC*GDP)*Interest rate effect on Consumption(Domestic Interest Rate/Reference Domestic Interest Rate\
		)
	~	
	~		|

Debt Relation=
	National Debt/Cummulated Investment
	~	
	~		|

t0=
	0
	~	
	~		|

p=
	0.62
	~	
	~		|

Cummulated Investment= INTEG (
	Investment,
		20)
	~	
	~		|

National Debt= INTEG (
	Government Expenditure,
		12)
	~	
	~		|

tg=
	10
	~	
	~		|

ig=
	0.1
	~	
	~		|

Real GDP
	~	
	~		|

dg=
	15
	~	
	~		|

Delta C=
	(Family Consumption-Consumption)*Accelerator
	~	
	~		|

Desired Additional Capital Stock=
	Delta C*(Interest Rate Effect(Interest Rate Reference))
	~	
	~		|

Interest Rate Reference=
	Domestic Interest Rate/Reference Domestic Interest Rate
	~	
	~		|

Family Consumption= DELAY FIXED (
	Consumption, 1, 100)
	~	
	~		|

Trade Balance Surplus=
	(Export-Imports)*Interest Rate Effect on BP(Lagged Domestic Interest Rate)
	~	Dmnl
	~		|

GDP= DELAY FIXED (
	Family Consumption+Government Expenditure+Investment+Export-Imports, 0.25 , 100)
	~	
	~		|

Government Expenditure=
	(0.12+PULSE( tg , dg )*ig)*GDP
	~	
	~		|

Export Rate=
	e*Export
	~	
	~		|

e=
	0.068+PULSE( 26 , 10 )*0.097*0
	~	
	~		|

Export= INTEG (
	Export Rate,
		6.6)
	~	
	~		|

drift3=
	10
	~	
	~		|

dp=
	0.55
	~	
	~		|

drift2=
	-1.2
	~	
	~		|

C0=
	40
	~	
	~		|

dd=
	19
	~	
	~		|

Domestic Interest Rate=
	Basic Interest Rate*Efeito BP(Trade Balance Surplus/Reference Surplus)
	~	
	~		|

Reference Surplus=
	8.2
	~	
	~		|

drift=
	10
	~	
	~		|

Basic Interest Rate=
	b+PULSE(t0, d) *i
	~	
	~		|

Depreciation=
	Capital Stock/Average Life of Capital
	~	
	~		|

Imports=
	m*GDP+PULSE( 20 , 11 )*shock
	~	
	~		|

m=
	0.07
	~	
	~		|

i=
	3
	~	
	~		|

d=
	32
	~	
	~		|

r=
	26.8
	~	
	~		|

Real Investment
	~	
	~		|

Innovations=
	RANDOM NORMAL( -1 , 1 , 0, dp , 1 )*r+RAMP(drift,0,dd)+RAMP( drift2, dd+1 , 25 )+RAMP\
		(drift3,26,50)
	~	
	~		|

Desired Investment=
	Capital Stock Adjustment+Innovations
	~	
	~		|

Accelerator=
	1.5
	~	
	~		|

PMC=
	0.61
	~	
	~		|

Interest Rate Effect(
	[(0,0)-(6,4),(0.8,1.2),(0.9,1.1),(1,1),(1.1,0.95),(1.84,0.62),(4,0.3)],(0.244648,2.08772\
		),(1,1),(1.96942,0.614035),(2.6789,0.45614),(3.15596,0.438596),(4.5,0.315789))
	~	
	~		|

Reference Domestic Interest Rate=
	11.2
	~	
	~		|

Efeito BP(
	[(-1,0)-(5,8)],(-1,4),(0,3.5),(0.5,3),(1,1),(1.9,1),(2,0.95),(3,0.9),(5,0.8))
	~	
	~		|

Lagged Domestic Interest Rate=
	DELAY FIXED(Domestic Interest Rate/Reference Domestic Interest Rate, 1 , 1 )
	~	
	~		|

Average Life of Capital=
	15
	~	
	~		|

Average Time for Capital Adjustment=
	1.1
	~	
	~		|

supply elasticity=
	4.8
	~	
	~		|

********************************************************
	.Control
********************************************************~
		Simulation Control Parameters
	|

FINAL TIME  = 30
	~	Year
	~	The final time for the simulation.
	|

INITIAL TIME  = 0
	~	Year
	~	The initial time for the simulation.
	|

SAVEPER  = 1
	~	Year [0,?]
	~	The frequency with which output is stored.
	|

TIME STEP  = 0.25
	~	Year [0,?]
	~	The time step for the simulation.
	|

\\\---/// Sketch information - do not modify anything except names
V300  Do not put anything below this section - it will be ignored
*View 1
$192-192-192,0,Times New Roman|12||0-0-0|0-0-0|0-0-255|-1--1--1|-1--1--1|96,96,100,0
10,1,Capital Stock,470,27,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,2,Capital Goods Supply Chain,254,26,51,21,3,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,3,Desired Investment,298,254,35,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,4,supply elasticity,133,185,49,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,5,Capital Stock Adjustment,451,207,44,19,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,6,Desired Additional Capital Stock,590,496,60,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,7,Average Time for Capital Adjustment,555,258,61,19,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,8,Consumption,678,286,42,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,9,GDP,693,368,18,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,10,Government Expenditure,515,335,40,19,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,11,5,3,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(376,229)|
1,12,6,5,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(523,357)|
1,13,7,5,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(509,235)|
1,14,9,8,1,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(657,350)|
1,15,10,9,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(608,351)|
12,16,48,671,29,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,17,19,16,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(620,26)|
1,18,19,1,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(539,26)|
11,19,48,574,26,6,1,34,131,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,20,Depreciation,574,38,41,11,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,21,Average Life of Capital,698,90,50,19,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,22,21,20,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(632,62)|
1,23,1,5,0,0,0,0,2,64,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(461,110)|
1,24,1,20,1,0,0,0,2,192,0,-1--1--1,|12||0-0-0,1|(528,5)|
10,25,Domestic Interest Rate,102,300,56,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,26,Reference Domestic Interest Rate,123,222,65,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,27,Interest Rate Effect,238,318,41,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,28,Imports,827,436,26,11,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,29,9,28,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(737,435)|
1,30,28,9,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(764,404)|
10,31,Trade Balance Surplus,420,424,47,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,32,28,31,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(640,430)|
1,33,31,25,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(268,365)|
10,34,Efeito BP,215,423,31,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,35,34,25,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(166,370)|
10,36,Basic Interest Rate,102,409,59,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,37,36,25,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(102,365)|
10,38,Interest Rate Effect on BP,421,522,41,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,39,Lagged Domestic Interest Rate,178,497,56,19,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,40,26,39,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(148,352)|
1,41,25,39,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(136,391)|
10,42,Accelerator,738,494,38,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,43,42,99,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(714,519)|
10,44,PMC,770,252,19,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,45,44,8,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(735,264)|
10,46,Innovations,395,288,37,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,47,46,3,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(355,273)|
10,48,Real Investment,637,158,52,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,49,r,380,324,5,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,50,49,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(384,312)|
10,51,b,108,438,6,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,52,51,36,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(106,430)|
10,53,d,79,438,6,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,54,53,36,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(84,431)|
10,55,i,144,439,4,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,56,55,36,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(134,432)|
10,57,t0,91,492,8,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,58,57,36,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(95,457)|
10,59,m,841,505,8,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,60,59,28,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(835,477)|
10,61,drift,350,321,14,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,62,61,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(366,309)|
10,63,Reference Surplus,412,371,57,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,64,63,25,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(267,337)|
10,65,Investment,645,242,35,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,66,65,9,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(666,298)|
10,67,dd,432,319,10,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,68,67,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(420,309)|
10,69,drift2,415,260,18,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,70,69,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(409,269)|
10,71,C0,758,313,12,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,72,71,8,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(734,305)|
10,73,dp,449,288,10,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,74,73,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(442,288)|
10,75,drift3,399,341,18,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,76,75,46,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(397,321)|
10,77,Export,875,283,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
12,78,48,1000,287,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,79,81,77,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(935,294)|
1,80,81,78,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(979,294)|
11,81,48,962,294,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,82,Export Rate,962,313,39,11,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
10,83,e,934,341,6,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,84,83,82,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(940,334)|
1,85,77,82,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(916,296)|
1,86,9,10,1,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(606,370)|
1,87,77,9,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(779,327)|
1,88,77,31,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(657,349)|
10,89,Family Consumption,811,379,43,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,90,89,9,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(746,372)|
1,91,8,89,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(732,324)|
1,92,38,31,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(420,479)|
1,93,39,31,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(296,461)|
10,94,Interest Rate Reference,238,224,41,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,95,25,94,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(163,265)|
1,96,26,94,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(185,223)|
1,97,27,6,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(407,403)|
1,98,94,6,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(407,355)|
10,99,Delta C,682,555,26,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,100,89,99,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(748,465)|
1,101,99,6,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(647,533)|
1,102,8,99,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(679,413)|
10,103,Real GDP,635,198,37,13,8,131,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,104,dg,489,380,10,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,105,104,10,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(495,367)|
10,106,ig,533,380,7,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,107,106,10,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(528,367)|
10,108,tg,563,378,8,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,109,108,10,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(550,367)|
10,110,Debt Relation,250,583,44,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,111,National Debt,427,579,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,112,10,111,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(473,449)|
1,113,111,110,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(347,580)|
10,114,Cummulated Investment,428,624,40,20,3,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,115,65,114,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(542,422)|
1,116,114,110,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(347,605)|
1,117,110,51,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(181,512)|
10,118,Crowding Out Effect 1,91,549,46,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,119,118,51,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(98,496)|
1,120,25,8,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(390,293)|
10,121,Interest rate effect on Consumption,947,226,68,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,122,26,8,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(405,254)|
1,123,121,8,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(806,256)|
10,124,Crowding Out Effect 2,185,546,46,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,125,124,51,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(147,492)|
10,126,p,33,461,6,11,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
1,127,126,51,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(63,451)|
12,128,48,105,28,10,8,0,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,129,131,2,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(185,28)|
1,130,131,128,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(135,28)|
11,131,48,161,28,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,132,Capital Goods Production Start Rate,161,58,51,22,40,131,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,133,4,132,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(143,133)|
1,134,3,132,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(234,163)|
1,135,137,1,4,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(403,26)|
1,136,137,2,100,0,0,22,0,0,0,-1--1--1,,1|(334,26)|
11,137,252,370,26,6,8,34,3,0,0,1,0,0,0
10,138,Capital Goods Production Rate,370,53,48,19,40,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,139,4,138,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(237,126)|
1,140,3,138,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(331,160)|
1,141,20,138,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(482,44)|
1,142,138,65,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(506,147)|
1,143,2,138,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(306,37)|
10,144,Initial Supply Chain,238,102,42,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,145,Initial Capital Stock,490,102,42,19,8,3,0,0,0,0,0,0
10,146,tsc,370,91,11,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,147,146,138,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(370,83)|
10,148,shock,901,441,20,11,8,3,0,0,-1,0,0,0
1,149,148,28,0,0,0,0,0,64,0,-1--1--1,,1|(873,439)|
1,150,145,1,0,0,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(481,71)|
1,151,144,2,0,0,0,0,0,64,1,-1--1--1,,1|(244,71)|
///---\\\
:GRAPH GRAPH_0
:TITLE GRAPH_0
:SCALE
:VAR Investment
:Y-MIN -10
:Y-MAX 30
:SCALE
:VAR Real Investment
:Y-MIN -10
:Y-MAX 30

:GRAPH GRAPH
:TITLE GRAPH
:SCALE
:VAR Produção de Bens de Capital
:Y-MIN -30
:Y-MAX 120
:SCALE
:VAR Consumo
:Y-MIN -30
:Y-MAX 120

:GRAPH GRAPH_1
:TITLE GRAPH_1
:SCALE
:VAR renda nacional
:SCALE
:VAR investimento
:SCALE
:VAR consumo

:GRAPH GRAPH_2
:TITLE GRAPH_2
:SCALE
:VAR Produção de Bens de Capital
:SCALE
:VAR Inovação

:GRAPH GRAPH_3
:TITLE GRAPH_3
:SCALE
:VAR Real GDP
:Y-MIN 50
:Y-MAX 600
:SCALE
:VAR GDP
:Y-MIN 50
:Y-MAX 600

:GRAPH GRAPH_4
:TITLE GRAPH_4
:SCALE
:VAR Capital Goods Production Rate
:Y-MIN -20
:Y-MAX 40
:SCALE
:VAR Capital Goods Production Start Rate
:Y-MIN -20
:Y-MAX 40

:GRAPH GRAPH_5
:TITLE GRAPH_5
:SCALE
:VAR National Debt
:SCALE
:VAR GDP
:L<%^E!@
1:low gov exp.vdf
1:high gov exp.vdf
9:low gov exp
11:cnpq 2006 simple supply line macroeconomic  model 6 6 com inovação.voc
12:cnpq 2006 simple supply line macroeconomic  model 6 6 com inovação.vpd
13:cnpq 2006 
18:cnpq 2006 simple supply line macroeconomic  model boston 2007 28 11 0,007.vsc
20:cnpq 2006 simple supply line macroeconomic  model boston 2007 28 11 0,007.lst
15:1,0,0,0,5,0
19:100,0
27:2,
34:0,
4:Time
5:Basic Interest Rate
24:0
25:30
26:30