ithnithm@BookC_StringPrint_SetupTPrintStartupSound_TabLISTBook_PrefsAct List Scene Drawing_Model Draw_Specs diagram_struct_arrayDependentsScriptPad_ListManuscriptPlayPlay_PrefsModelSubscript_Set_ListSubscript_SetArraySimulation_ModelRun_Specsentity_struct_arrayentity_structint16_arraydouble_arraytoken_type_arraytoken_type run_handle_array!run_handle"Draw_Index#Poster_Info$queue%Units&Poster_Tab'AliasRecord(Play_Where)diagram_struct*Point_array+movie_attach,Picture_Tab-Pad.slider_type/Model_Index0Log_Condn1Log_Page2Model_Index_array3Button_Type4Condition5Movie_Tab6graph_type7curve_type_array8curve_type9Pathname:Panel;Sector_Specs<SET=Sense_Setup>select_struct_array?allow_struct_array@allow_structAPicture_arrayBEntity_Controller_MapCSection_ListDFont_MapEFont_Map_Record_ArrayFFont_Map_RecordGWindow_ListHModel_WindowIPad_WindowJ@@4n~6|xxHH$18D>HH$1d'@tC 4d>> ,,     $    JJ!  drmd   4dP4c@@4bD>(>2BPP??@ 2   V3 3B:88#! ff8(24Prova1 "9^pD20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020yearZ:淽35Prova2 Vjj@P@?yTimeLS2s  @@|??@@|@@???@|?+@Existing_CH4_Plants Plants2004JA ! "@|@P@P@@AS@#B @9"Z@FM\@1㸎@q+E@Hd@8@@&@@#!p@BDO@# $9%&plants  plantsc A>A>??A>A>A>A>???A>?+A> CH4fleet2004430000\   A> !Data from "Metano per auto" of Eni's Gas & Power Division that manage the refuelling stations network in Italy www.gasandpower.eni.it/gasp/eni/init.do# $9%&+f j@Df@??@Df@@}gwQ@Df@???@E+@Df@ New_plantskif (Existing_CH4_Plants<6000) then (if time=2004 then (Plants2005-Plants2004) else Plants_to_build) else 0P  p                 !As a flow, it automatically delays the connected variable by one period (i.e., one year in this case), allowing to take into consideration the construction time. Then it becomes a actual plant, being allowed to flow into the stock variable.# $9%& plants/yr  plants  yrs*@*.@E??@*.@E@*.@*.B???@E?+@*.Check_built_plantsPlants2005-Plants2004     !Cit is only functional to check if "existing plants" works properly# $ ]@$@/  ,'&f@$()9%&H!f^/ @Df@??@Df@@}gwQ@Df@(???=+@Df@Plants_to_build_(if (Required_plants-Existing_CH4_Plants)>0 then (Required_plants-Existing_CH4_Plants) else 0)4            !"=@_@cy?@f_@i?Y+z<@lx@otِ@qq4 @r7N@t`~@vt_o@w)@yA<@@{ @}gwQ@Df@)how many plants are needed for each year# $9%&sc AwAV??AVA31ߔEA31ߔE7???Ap=9?A31ߔE!Monofuel_total_yearly_investmentBMonofuel_filling_plant_investment*Monofuelplantstobuilt*Inflation0D;  0   D  !"Ap=9AVאA.!CXA! P4AlgAwl AĢwAVAʜsKdFA)AJWA˾RAîAJހA.A31ߔE8INvestments required to build monofuel plants per year.# $9%&EUREuros  eur$c f ?j?.t???j?.t?j?j????.t?+?j CH4_carspathg(a_ch4carspath*time^2+b_ch4carspath*time+c_ch4carspath)*(1+Existing_CH4_Plants/Total_Filling_stations) "#$L "     #    $        !# $9%&c AP1Bγ;AU4??AP1Bγ;AU4AP1Bγ;AP1Bγ;???AU4?+AP1Bγ;CH4_fuelled_carsFleetPrediction*CH4_carspath!  !   !CH4 car fleet by year# $9%&ch4carsch4cars  ch4carsc@Vƒ@Vƒ??@Vƒ@Vƒ@Vƒ@Vƒ???@Vƒ?+@VƒBeginnigcarsoverplantsCH4fleet2004/Plants2004      !# $9%&c@`@`??@`@`@`@`???@`? + @`Car_over_filling_plants_20201500  !# S$9%&'cV @Vƒ@_??@Vƒ@_@_@_u???@Vƒ?+ @_Cars_over_filling_plantsWConvexity_car_over_filling_plants_function*time^2+b_caroverplants*time+c_caroverplants 4            !"@Vƒ@H@apfɠ@@08@C@@hż@|4h@%mk@oW@C:@ ?YP@ը-nx@@T@E@_vThe ending share can be set at sake. A ending figure, 600cars/plants, was suggested by Dott. Mariani during our talks# $9%& cars/plants cars/plants  cars  plantsc*?ؿ%X?ؿ%X???ؿ%X?ؿ%X?ؿ%X?ؿ%X????ؿ%X? + ?ؿ%X+Convexity_car_over_filling_plants_function-1  !# S$9%&#cyw~w~??w~w~w~w~???w~?+ w~b_caroverplantsz(Car_over_filling_plants_2020-Beginnigcarsoverplants)/16+Convexity_car_over_filling_plants_function*(2020^2-2004^2)/(-16)   H                   !# $9%&c_ A83BgKZA83BgKZ??A83BgKZA83BgKZA83BgKZA83BgKZ???A83BgKZ?+ A83BgKZc_caroverplants`Beginnigcarsoverplants-Convexity_car_over_filling_plants_function*(2004^2)-b_caroverplants*2004  ,            !# $9%&c'@ 49@|??@ 49@|@ 49@ 49???@|?+@ 49Required_plants(CH4_cars_stock/Cars_over_filling_plants      !"@|@~w@@AS@#B @9"Z@FM\@1㸎@q+E@Hd@8@@&@@#!p@BDO@@ 49Plants that are require a year in advance. Then the difference between this and the existing infrastruture will give the number of plants to build.# $9%&Hc$A\IpA\Ip??A\IpA\IpA\IpA\Ip???A\Ip?+A\IpOverallfleet2004 34310446   A\I p!ACI, end of 2003, data# $9%&c$.y?#{1yu?#{1yu???#{1yu?#{1yu?#{1yu?#{1yu????#{1yu? +?#{1yu%Convexity_natural_gas_share_function((natural_gas_share_2020_without_existing_ch4_plants_feedback-beginch4share)*(4020*2010^2+4030*2015^2)/(2020-2004)+2*(2010^2-2015^2)*(beginch4share+(-2004*(natural_gas_share_2020_without_existing_ch4_plants_feedback-beginch4share)/(2020-2004)))-0.04*2010^2-0.1*2015^2)/(-2*(2015^4+2010^4)-(2004^2-2020^2)*(4020*2010^2+4030*2015^2)/(2020-2004)-2*(2010^2-2015^2)*(2004^2-2004*(2004^2-2020^2)/(2020-2004)))"yy                                           - ?z G{      - ?                                                                     !# S$9%&c "@|@|??@|@|@|@|4???@|?+@| Plants2004458 MN !5FederMetano data Maggio 2004 from www.federmetano.it# $9%&Hc &@P@P??@P@P@P@P???@P?+@P Plants2005458+43 !FederMetano data Maggio 2004 from www.federmetano.it The 43 refuelling plants are in construction, as 14th July 2004 (always from FederMetano website).# $9%&Hc$3?ə?ə???ə?ə?ə?ə????ə? +?ə%Monofuel_filling_stations_share_20200.1   ? !# S$9%&c0AvAv??AvAvAvAv???Av?Av Ceil35LL 35000000!   Av !# $9%&c2?zG?zG???zG?zG?zG?zG????zG?+?zGBeginsharemono0.99 MAN   ? zG!# $9%&c1AA??AAAA???A?A Ceil38LM 38000000!   A !# $9%&!c K4 ?z@?ə???z@?ə?ə?ə????z@?+?əMonosharepathLConvexity_monofuel_filling_station_share_function*time^2+b_mono*time+c_mono4            !"?z@?iDg@?X;k?Y_??R1l?qi?tq?#?"쪀?q ?}?;Ob?9&A?͊<?B?əHow the percentage of monofuel plants will, likely, drop in the years to come. The ending share can be set at sake. Mariani's opinion is that this has to be a decreasing function but the final percentage is very difficult to envisage.# $9%&cU5 @aU<@aUG&4?H'5@IfdYY   1 <           -    2 =           .   %  3 >           G   &  4 ?           H   '  5 @           I   !It computes the fleet forecast choosing between different ceilings with the switch placed on the controlo panel. It is a year in advance in order to know how many plants to build in time. The construction time is, in average according to Dott. Mariani, a year. Anticipating is necessary to fullfil in time the gap between fleet and infrastructure. Last regression was run 2nd August 2004 with most recent available data.# $9%&cars  carsc $S?#{1yu?#{1yu???#{1yu?#{1yu?#{1yu?#{1yu????#{1yu?+"?#{1yua_ch4carspath%Convexity_natural_gas_share_function#$ !# $9%&"c uTc߿c??c߿cc߿c???c?+#cb_ch4carspathv(natural_gas_share_2020_without_existing_ch4_plants_feedback-beginch4share+a_ch4carspath*(2004^2-2020^2))/(2020-2004)"D    "              !# $9%&,c U@ux"@ux"??@ux"@ux"@ux"@ux"???@ux"?+$@ux"c_ch4carspathbeginch4share-a_ch4carspath*(2004^2)-2004*(natural_gas_share_2020_without_existing_ch4_plants_feedback-beginch4share+a_ch4carspath*(2004^2-2020^2))/(2020-2004)"l  "          "                !# $9%&cCAA??AAAA???A?%A Ceil41MM 41000000!   A !# $9%&cRAA??AAAA???A?&A Ceil44MH 44000000!   A !# $9%&ceAiNAiN??AiNAiNAiNAiN???AiN?'AiN Ceil47HH 47000000!   AiN !# $9%&cA AS??ASASAS????(ASRunningMonoCostsB(LabourMono+PowerMono+Maintenance_Mono)*(Addmonoplants)*Inflation 7:*ND;$ 7 :  *  N  D  !"AE+.AEDpAcW AqUn<ńAzo1>AG'A@Af;APA4 3=AyO>AUgoAu02 AWA7AA xjAS# $9%&cD A73G{s2??A73G{s2A73GA73G???{s2?)A73GRunniMultiCostsE(LabourMulti+PowerMulti+MaintenanceMulti)*(Addmultiplants)*Inflation QKLMDU$ Q K  L  M  D  !"{s2@^ybP@m{,ڹZA8mAPPhA``Ak Aux0x0A5ܱ&A&޲Aѳ<^8Aɲ.A,*A^^Ad!7odAG!QA73G# $9%&c@È@È??@È@È@È@È ???@È?*@ÈMaintenance_Mono10000( '!!Data suggested by Dott. Mariani.# $9%&c@j@j??@j@j@j@j/???@j?+@jWages25000Q7 a!0Yearly overall data suggested by Dott. Mariani.# $9%& EUR/employeewages  eur  employeec @@??@@@@6???@?,@EmployeesMono2e7 !7Average number of employees suggestd by Dott. Mariani.# $9%& employee employees  employeec Z?????? - Ceil35Switch0! !# S$9%&c [????????????? .? Ceil38Switch0! !# $9%&fI@y_??@y_@w$\u8@y_????ۅT+/@y_New_Multifuel_plants_wCH4Multifuelpantstomodify !# $9%&multiplants/yr  multiplants  yrc!AjAj??AjAjAjAj^???Aj? 0Aj"Monofuel_filling_plant_investment400000   Aj !_It randmly genres a number within the range suggested by Dott. Mariani to be the most likely.# S$9%&c x@-V@-V??@-V@-V@-V@-V???@-V?1@-V Beta1_35LL 1008.272!   @- V!# $9%&c y@"33333@"33333??@"33333@"33333@"33333@"33333???@"33333?2@"33333 Beta1_38LM580.275!   @"3 3333!# $9%&c z@xlfffff@xlfffff??@xlfffff@xlfffff@xlfffff@xlfffff???@xlfffff?3@xlfffff Beta1_41MM390.775!   @xlf ffff!# $9%&c {@rp1&x@rp1&x??@rp1&x@rp1&x@rp1&x@rp1&x???@rp1&x?4@rp1&x Beta1_44MH295.012!   @rp1 &x!# $9%&c |@n"m@n"m??@n"m@n"m@n"m@n"m???@n"m?5@n"m Beta1_47HH241.092!   @n" m!# $9%&c 1A""A+Fun??A""A+FunA""A""???A+Fun?6A"" CH4_Consumed2CH4_cars_stock*CH4carsmilage/KMtravelledWithm3ch498J  9  8  !# $9%&m3ch4  m3ch4c @j@j??@j@j@j@j???@j?7@j LabourMonoEmployeesMono*Wages,+(  , +  !# $9%&c@%@%??@%@%@%@%t???@%?8@%KMtravelledWithm3ch410.96   @% !uAverage effeciency of a FIAT Multipla 1.6 taken as a representative, average car (Quattroruote, car magazine, data).# $9%& km/m3ch4 km/m3ch4  km  m3ch4c @L@|@8@@/??@8@@/@8@@8@;???@/?9@8@CH4carsmilagetimeyj{\6@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@@/@@ϟ@A@@Ā@6@@Ѩ@@N@@ҷ@@@w@ӽ@@@@&@8@  !?bM Beta2_41MM0.094!   ?b M!# $9%&c ?E?E???E?E?E?E????E???E Beta2_44MH0.087!   ?E !# $9%&c ?E?E???E?E?E?E????E?@?E Beta2_47HH0.082!   ? E!# $9%&s"J@H46(@|VQ??@H46(@|VQ@H46(@H46(???@|VQ?+A@H46(Monofuel_plants_stock#Beginsharemono*Existing_CH4_PlantseNS     !# $9%&gc?333333?333333???333333?333333?333333?333333????333333?B?333333CompressingCH40.15:K   ?33 3333!Range suggested by Dott. Marianiwas 0.1-0.15 kwh/m3ch4 and 0.1-0.35 kwh/m3ch4 by FederMetano (dott. Tozzoli). Therefo I assumed 0.15 as a representatitve figure.# $9%&Kwh/m3  kwh  m3c ?zG{?zG{???zG{?zG{?zG{?zG{????zG{?C?zG{ PowerCost0.02:K   ?z G{!# $9%&EUR/kwhEUR/kwh  eur  kwhc ?$|????$|??$|?$|?????D?$| Inflation(1+InflationRate)^(GenrTime)FE )Oa(  F  E !# $9%&c @0??@0@0@0????E@0 GenrTime time-2004D    !# $9%&c ?zG{?zG{???zG{?zG{?zG{?zG{????zG{? F?zG{InflationRate0.02D   ?z G{!Giorgio's hypothesis.# S$9%& inflation  inflationc ^?????? G Ceil41Switch0! !# S$9%&c _?????? H Ceil44Switch0! !# S$9%&c `?????? I Ceil47Switch0! !# S$9%&c A: :C'A37я??A: :C'A37яA9UA9UM???A4P`?JA9UAvgCH4consumption!CH4_Consumed/Existing_CH4_Plants6:K  6   !NIt gives the average cubic meters natural gas supply by a refuelling station.# $9%&m^3 cubic meters  m m mc *@2ߛ@uЭ??@2ߛ@uЭ@@s@@sU???@3=vp?K@@s PowerMulti+AvgCH4consumption*CompressingCH4*PowerCostJBC) J B  C  !VTotal expenditure in power to compress CH4 to the wished pressure on a yearly basis.# $9%&c@È@È??@È@È@È@ÈK???@È?L@ÈMaintenanceMulti10000) '!LAssuming that it has the same maintenance costs as in the mono fuel plants.# $9%&c;@Q??@Q@Q@Q????M@QAddmultiplantsߜAӣ_A21Ad:INvestments required to build multi-fuel plants per year.# $9%&c@@??@@@@6???@?P@EmployeesMulti2Q !7Average number of employees suggestd by Dott. Mariani.# $9%&c @j@j??@j@j@j@j???@j?Q@j LabourMultiEmployeesMulti*WagesP+)  P +  !# $9%&g??????RNPV comparison!# $9%&fL@^"r??@^"r@Y qc7@Y`Y???@EHW+S@Y`YNew_Monofuel_plantsMonofuelplantstobuiltA !# $9%&monoplants/yr  monoplants  yrc"@@??@@@@=???@? T@#Multifuel_filling_plant_investment125000O   @ !>Data kindly provided by Dott. Tozzolo, Federmetano (Average).# S$9%&c1A\H@^ybP??A\H@^ybPA\HA\H;???@Kh?UA\HMultifuel_costs2Multifuel_total_yearly_investment+RunniMultiCostsO)  O )  !`bE AAt)ACnAFSpAHXOAmount of CO2 tons avoided then in the BAU case taking into account only the additional cars with respect to the existing CH4 fuelled fleet.# $9%&CO2tonsCO2tons  co2tonsc@a@i@h@f9??@h@f9@f9@f9???@h?]@f9CO2emittGasolinetimei\^@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@@h@h,@g@g@gc33333@g333333@g333333@g @f@f33333@f@ffffff@fs33333@f`@f`@fVfffff@f9  !Initial figure is according to European Commission data. The following development of the graph is a free assumption of the researcher. Life cycle assessment data (i.e., weel-to-tank)# $9%&C02/kmC02/km  c02  kmc @b@`33334??@b@`33334@`33334@`33334F???@b?^@`33334CO2emittedCH4CO2emittGasoline*0.75]i\ ] * ?  !G30% reduction according to European Commission (Life cycle assessment)# $9%&g??????_Global emissions!# $9%&c@(@(??@(@(@(@(U???@(? `@(CO2ValuePerTon20a !VThe CO2 value is set within a range that can vary with a slider in the control panel.# S$9%&euros/CO2tonseuros/CO2tons  euros  co2tonsc 'Ar??ArArAr@????aAr CO2Savings(CO2TonsAvoided*CO2ValuePerTon*Inflation\`Dc \ `  D  !ASavings from CO2 compared to the BAU case. Adjusted to inflation# $9%&c ????????4????? b?Discount_rate0.03cd   ?Q !5It is set to be constant, i.e. as a flat yield curve#! S$9%&cArD??ArDArDArDf????cArDNPVCO2NPV(CO2Savings,Discount_rate)ab a b $  !gIt computes the net present value of the hypothetical cash flow coming from the avoided CO2 emissions.# $9%&c%A^%gApJ߿X??A^%gApJ߿XA^%gA^%g???ApJ߿X?dA^%gNPVInfrastructure&NPV(Total_Construction,Discount_rate) b  b $  !It computes the net present value of the hypothetical cash flow coming from the investment required to build all the refuelling plants.# $9%&c#@H46(@VQ??@H46(@VQ@H46(@H46(???@VQ?e@H46(Employed_labour_force$Monofuel_plants_stock*EmployeesMonoA,  A ,  !# $9%&c 1 A,`DA(ޥ??A,`DA(ޥA,`DA,`D.???A(ޥ?fA,`D BAUCO2emiss2AvgCO2Emiss*AvgMilage_BAU*FleetPrediction/1000000ij!mn$ i j  !  / A.  !/Tons of CO2 in BAU case from private car fleet# $9%&c ?ə? ?+?zG{???+?zG{?+?+r????zG{?g?+DieslCarsSharetimexzijpq@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@?zG{?+ I_?r ě?Ѳ-V?l?ӶE?Ԭ1&y?պ^5?|?ְ ě?-V?٩lD?x?(\)?7KƧ?n?E?+  !sAccording to CNR Istituto Motori forecast (50% of diesel fuelled cars by 2020), development drawn by the modeller.# $9%&c@b@i@hP@e??@hP@e@e@e-???@hP?h@eCO2emittDieseltimei@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@@hP@g@g@g@gx@g@@g@f@f@f@fp@f`@f@@f @f@e@e  !.ANPA data, development drawn by the modeller.# $9%&&c k@h@e> k^??@h@e> k^@e> k^@e> k^2???@h?i@e> k^ AvgCO2Emisslbeginch4share*CO2emittedCH4+CO2emittDiesel*DieslCarsShare+CO2emittGasoline*(1-DieslCarsShare-beginch4share) ^hg]f<  ^  h g   ]  g      !3Average CO2 emissions weighted by the cars shares.# $9%&CO2/kmCO2/km  co2  km c i @{R/@K ??@{R/@K @{R/@{R/U???@K ?j@{R/AvgMilage_BAUjbeginch4share*CH4carsmilage+DieselMileage*DieslCarsShare+(1-beginch4share-DieslCarsShare)*GasolineMileage 9lgktxyf<  9  l g      g  k   !VAverage milage in order to compute the travelled km share by each fuel in scenario A.# $9%&@c@@К@`@ð??@`@ð@`@`:???@ð@?k@`GasolineMileagetime tuj@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@@ð@@Ġ@@Ÿ@D@@4@@Ȱ@x@ʸ@ˀ@˼@̘@$@`  !;Starting with ENEA data and freely drawing the development# $9%&@c @ӈ@^@1@??@1@@1@1:???@?l@1DieselMileagetimexzj@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@@@@C@o@@ԭ@@C@u@մ@@@@V@֛@@J@׮@@1  !;Starting with ENEA data and freely drawing the development# $9%&@cAdA(ޥ??AdA(ޥAdAdb???A(ޥ?mAdScenario_A_CO2_emissBAUCO2emiss-CO2TonsAvoidedf\  f \  !cTotal CO2 emissions from private car fleet in Scenario A, when CH4 fuelled cars fleet is expanded.# $9%&c "@1>??@1>@1>@1>A????n@1> CO2_PercRedCO2TonsAvoided/BAUCO2emiss*100\f \ f  d  !"?StO?G>? &)T?}\0?ߏC ?tY4?郦un?`?6c?g_?s7?uJ?g&@{}*{@2i#/@1>BPercentage of reduction in the scenario A case than the BAU case.# $9%&g(??????oGasoline Share!# $9%&c)?zۉ(Y?cDb/???zۉ(Y?cDb/?cDb/?cDb/????zۉ(Y?(p?cDb/GasolineSH_BAU1-beginch4share-DieslCarsSharegt    g  !# $9%&c'*?zۉ(Y?]i%|???zۉ(Y?]i%|?]i%|?]i%|????zۉ(Y?(q?]i%|Gasoline_SH_ScenA(1-CH4_fuelled_cars_share-DieslCarsSharegu    g  !# $9%&g /??????r CO emissions!# $9%&c1????????L?????/s?CO_CH40.25~}   ? !MData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to gasoline value.# $9%&c,2?֖ >?תKy???֖ >?תKy?תKy?תKy????֖ >@?4t?תKyPercMilageGasoline_BAU-GasolineMileage*GasolineSH_BAU/AvgMilage_BAUkpj ~ k p  j  !# $9%&c13?֖ >?ҟb???֖ >?ҟb?ҟb?ҟb????֖ >@?5u?ҟbPercMilageGasoline_ScenA2GasolineMileage*Gasoline_SH_ScenA/AvgMilage_ScenAkq  k q    !# $9%&g4??????vPerc Milage BAU!# $9%&g5??????wPerc Milage ScenA!# $9%&c*6?K0V4?Sa???K0V4?Sa?K0V4?K0V4????Sa@?4x?K0V4PercMilageDiesel_BAU+DieselMileage*DieslCarsShare/AvgMilage_BAUlgj ~ l g  j  !# $9%&c)7?$#?hU???$#?hU?hU?hU????$#@?4y?hUPercMilageCH4_BAU*CH4carsmilage*beginch4share/AvgMilage_BAU9j ~ 9   j  !# $9%&c,<?< 3?Sa???< 3?Sa?< 3?< 3????Sa@?5z?< 3PercMilageDiesel_ScenA-DieselMileage*DieslCarsShare/AvgMilage_ScenAlg  l g    !# $9%&c4=?v?$#???v?$#?v?v????$#@?5{?vPercMilage_CH4_ScenA5CH4carsmilage*CH4_fuelled_cars_share/AvgMilage_ScenA9  9     !# $9%&cT????????L?????/|? CO_Gasol1~ !MData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to gasoline value.# $9%&c U?0;\t?0;\t???0;\t?0;\t?0;\t?0;\tL????0;\t?/}?0;\t CO_Diesel CO_CH4/1.38s~ s / ?z G  !MData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to gasoline value.# $9%&cWV ?duk?|~???duk?|~?|~?|~????duk?/~?|~CO_BAUXCO_CH4*PercMilageCH4_BAU+CO_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_BAU+CO_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_BAU sy}x|t, s y  } x   | t   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c^W ?duk?Q4???duk?Q4?Q4?Q4????duk?/?Q4 CO_ScenA_CO_CH4*PercMilage_CH4_ScenA+CO_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_ScenA+CO_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_ScenA s{}z|u, s {  } z   | u   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&cj@'??@'@'@'I????/@'CO_Perc_Reduction100*(CO_BAU-CO_ScenA)/CO_BAU~ d ~    ~  !"?˳A?nʕ%?L#E?>kH?%=%v@Ɩλ@OF(-S@~$vT4@Kp@"@C}Q#@4z@ z&kߩ@"2e(€@%" R@'J% CO emissions reduction in the scenario A case than in the BAU scenario.# $9%&g n?????? HC emissions!# $9%&co????????G?????n?HC_CH41 !HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&c p@88@88??@88@88@88@88G???@88?n@88 HC_Gasol HC_CH4/0.18  / ? = p  !HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&c q????????G?????n? HC_Diesel HC_CH4/0.6  / ?33 3333  !HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&cWr @DVe@Ĕ_??@DVe@Ĕ_@Ĕ_@Ĕ_???@DVe?n@Ĕ_HC_BAUXHC_CH4*PercMilageCH4_BAU+HC_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_BAU+HC_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_BAU yxt,  y   x    t   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c^s @DVe@+??@DVe@+@+@+???@DVe?n@+ HC_ScenA_HC_CH4*PercMilage_CH4_ScenA+HC_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_ScenA+HC_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_ScenA {zu,  {   z    u   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c@'Liu*??@'Liu*@'Liu*@'Liu*I????n@'Liu*HC_Perc_Reduction100*(HC_BAU-HC_ScenA)/HC_BAU d       !"?b/9k?ݓǵ?BIgB?͊}?#=S5@vc>@ 9H$@q@ A#.@VX8V@~b@ͳ@ .S@#GOz@%E @'Liu*J% HC emissions reduction in the scenario A case than in the BAU scenario.# $9%&g ??????NOx emissions!# $9%&c????????G??????NOx_CH41 !HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&c @ I$I$@ I$I$??@ I$I$@ I$I$@ I$I$@ I$I$G???@ I$I$?@ I$I$ NOx_Gasol1/0.28   @ I $I$!HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&c @4@4??@4@4@4@4G???@4?@4 NOx_Diesel1/0.05 !HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&cZ @+[-̈́@# ߗv??@+[-̈́@# ߗv@+[-̈́@+[-̈́???@# ߗv?@+[-̈́NOx_BAU[NOx_CH4*PercMilageCH4_BAU+NOx_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_BAU+NOx_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_BAU yxt,  y   x    t   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c a @*W(xO@# ߗv??@*W(xO@# ߗv@*W(xO@*W(xO???@# ߗv?@*W(xO NOx_ScenAbNOx_CH4*PercMilage_CH4_ScenA+NOx_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_ScenA+NOx_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_ScenA {zu,  {   z    u   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c@ aBiH??@ aBiH@ aBiH@ aBiHJ????@ aBiHNOx_Perc_Reduction 100*(NOx_BAU-NOx_ScenA)/NOx_BAU d       !"?']?- ?<?I?6}?t;܏c?? k??>ĝ?\@@X@MتO@n},@ b@ -7@ aBiHK% NOx emissions reduction in the scenario A case than in the BAU scenario.# $9%&g??????Soot emissions!# $9%&c??K???? Soot_CH40 !LData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to the diesel value.# $9%&c ??K???? Soot_Gasol0 !LData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to the diesel value.# $9%&c ????????K?????? Soot_Diesel1 !LData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to the diesel value.# $9%&c] ?K0V4?Sa???K0V4?Sa?K0V4?K0V4????Sa??K0V4 Soot_BAU^Soot_CH4*PercMilageCH4_BAU+Soot_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_BAU+Soot_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_BAU yxt,  y   x    t   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c d ?< 3?Sa???< 3?Sa?< 3?< 3????Sa??< 3 Soot_ScenAeSoot_CH4*PercMilage_CH4_ScenA+Soot_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_ScenA+Soot_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_ScenA {zu,  {   z    u   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c"@g ??@g @g @g K????@g Soot_Perc_Reduction#100*(Soot_BAU-Soot_ScenA)/Soot_BAU d       !"?,?:_mi1 ?^'3?YK?a<?Ō³?5??+?".Ί ?FX~?T-Iy@vʽ@(z y@=MYO@g L% soot emissions reduction in the scenario A case than in the BAU scenario.# $9%&cc @k7A@K ??@k7A@K @k7A@k7AW???@K ?5@k7AAvgMilage_ScenAdCH4_fuelled_cars_share*CH4carsmilage+DieselMileage*DieslCarsShare+Gasoline_SH_ScenA*GasolineMileage 9lgqkuz{,  9  l g   q k   !XAverage milage in order to compute the travelled km share by each fuel in scenario BAU.# $9%&@c D?????????????5? CheckScenAEPercMilageDiesel_ScenA+PercMilageGasoline_ScenA+PercMilage_CH4_ScenAzu{ z u  {  !# $9%&c=?????????????4? CheckBAU>PercMilageCH4_BAU+PercMilageDiesel_BAU+PercMilageGasoline_BAUyxt y x  t  !# $9%&g ?????? O3 emissions!# $9%&c????????G??????O3_CH41 !HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&c@ @ ??@ @ @ @ G???@ ?@  O3_Gasol 1/(0.12)   @ !HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&c @@??@@@@G???@?@ O3_Diesel1/(0.5) !HData from ENEA, ENGVA, FIAT e IVECO. Data are referred to to CH4 value.# $9%&cW @ݿi@Pf??@ݿi@Pf@Pf@Pf???@ݿi?@PfO3_BAUXO3_CH4*PercMilageCH4_BAU+O3_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_BAU+O3_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_BAU yxt,  y   x    t   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c^ @ݿi@ H(??@ݿi@ H(@ H(@ H(???@ݿi?@ H( O3_Scen2_O3_CH4*PercMilage_CH4_ScenA+O3_Diesel*PercMilageDiesel_ScenA+O3_Gasol*PercMilageGasoline_ScenA {zu,  {   z    u   !Data aren't measured in whatever units but just using CH4 emission data as basis parameter. Therefore the only figure that matters is the % difference between the two scenarios.# $9%&c@+l]\??@+l]\@+l]\@+l]\I????@+l]\O3_Perc_Reduction100*(O3_BAU-O3_Scen2)/O3_BAU d       !"?E?m׳:vP?K:Pr?u7l9@=v@Lڳn@ sW@cF@v"@J"=:@l4@ *@#e ez@%ƞX@(TN@+l]\J% O3 emissions reduction in the scenario A case than in the BAU scenario.# $9%&cANAͩ8AU4??ANAͩ8AU4ANAͩ8ANAͩ8???AU4?+ANAͩ8Delay_CH4_Fuelled_carsdelay(CH4_fuelled_cars,1)     !# $9%&cQ AտA@ӈ??AտA@ӈAտAAտAd???@ӈ?+AտATentative_CH4_increaseRif time=2004 then CH4_2004_increase else(CH4_fuelled_cars-Delay_CH4_Fuelled_cars)0            !eThe first year purchases are fixed in advance 'cause it's not possible to lag negatively a variable.# $9%&c A~?LAk$??A~?LAk$A~?LA~?L???Ak$?+A~?L Delay_Fleetdelay(FleetPrediction,1)! !    !# $9%&c=A"q @ /??A"q @ /@ /@ /???A"q ?+@ /Fleet_increase>if time=2004 then (604293) else (FleetPrediction-Delay_Fleet)!8      ( A"q   !   !# $9%&sANUךA>??ANUךA>ANUךANUך???A>@?+ANUךCH4_cars_stock430000\6   A> !# $9%&,fAS@ӈ??AS@ӈASA ">???@ӈ+A ">Additional_CH4_carsif ((Tentative_CH4_increase/Existing_CH4_Plants)ggڕ??AC1|IESA<>ggڕAC1|IESAC1|IES???A<>ggڕ?+AC1|IESTorn_down_cars Torn_down_share*FleetPrediction!   !  !# $9%&c AC}bAA=B??AC}bAA=BAC}bAC}b???ABv3J?+AC}b Car_salesFleet_increase+Torn_down_cars      !# $9%& c??Zi????Zi?&?&????Zi?+?&New_NGVs_shareAdditional_CH4_cars/Car_sales     !# $9%&c+@ӈ@ӈ??@ӈ@ӈ@ӈ@ӈ???@ӈ?+@ӈCH4_2004_increase20000 N !# $9%&s#Ap7ȔA]:U ??Ap7ȔA]:U Ap7ȔAp7Ȕ???A]:U @?+Ap7ȔDiesel_car_stockDieslCarsShare*FleetPredictiong!  g !  !# $9%&%f%A.:&Af9??A.:&Af9Af9A+|???A#S#%+A+|Diesel_car_increase(if time=2004 then (Diesel_2004_sales-Diesel_car_stock*Torn_down_share) else (Diesel_fuelled_cars-Delay_Diesel_Fuelled_cars))*(1-Buy_CH4_instead_of_diesel) P                    !# $9%&c&Aq:q$A]:U ??Aq:q$A]:U Aq:q$Aq:q$???A]:U ?+Aq:q$Diesel_fuelled_carsFleetPrediction*DieslCarsShare!g  ! g  !# $9%&c)/A4)t??A4)t???A4)t?+Gasoline_cars_sales*Car_sales-CH4_car_sales-Diesel_cars_sales      !# $9%&c 22A"L@ ??A"L@ AFsqAFsq???@ ?+AFsqCH4_car_sales3Additional_CH4_cars+CH4_cars_stock*Torn_down_share      !# $9%&c<?ߤ???ߤ????ߤ?+Gasoline_sales_shareGasoline_cars_sales/Car_sales     !# $9%&c=?a?>N=J??mH?ۏBo?a?>N=J?a?a????>N=J?+?aDiesel_sales_shareDiesel_cars_sales/Car_sales     !# $9%&c>?Ό6A?ɦ??ȕP`?n6?Ό6A?ɦ?Hx?Hx????ɦ?+?HxCH4_sales_shareCH4_car_sales/Car_sales     !# $9%&cE@iE@_??@iE@_@iE@iE(???@_?+@iETotal_Filling_stations22450+Existing_CH4_Plants  W   !)22450 is the number of traditional filling station in Italy as ed of 2003 (data from "Il sole 24 Ore", August 6th 2004). Here I assume that they won't grow in the future, 'cause the Italian infrastructure has already too many refuelling stations. It'll be likelier that they'll decrease, instead.# $9%&c*G?ȚB?y ???ȚB?y ?ȚB?ȚB????y ?+?ȚBCH4_fill_staions_share+Existing_CH4_Plants/Total_Filling_stations     !# $9%&cB2_ B9NB9]B2@??B9]B2@B9]B9]???B2@?B9]Italian_CH4_consumptiontime@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@B2@B2ڀB38] B3㕀B3-gB4Vw9B4ʱB55B5B60RB6<B7NlB7LUB8HóB8VB9WWB9]  !# $9%&c$O?6{? U$???6{? U$?6{?6{???? U$??6{Share_CH4_for_autom%CH4_Consumed/Italian_CH4_consumption6  6   !# $9%&cKT@%Uy? ]6??@%Uy? ]6@%Uy@%Uy???? ]6?+@%Uy CH4_fuelled_cars_share_100timesL(if time=2004 then beginch4share else (CH4_cars_stock/FleetPrediction))*100!8          !  d  !# $9%&c!X@X@4P??@X@4P@4P@4P???@X?+@4P"Monofuel_fillng_stations_to_buildMonosharepath*100   d  !# $9%&cAA8ZAﰐA"??AﰐA"A"A"???AҀ?A"Italian_populationtime@P@T@X@\@`@d@h@l@p@t@x@|@@@@@AҀAŚ AБXAA AtXAAAﰐAA餐A A@A԰A˘HAA"  !# $9%&personpeople  personc "[?X(?:G???X(?:G?:G?:G????X(??:GPop_over_cars#Italian_population/FleetPrediction!   !  !# $9%& People/cars People/cars  people  carsc5aAǩ74_??Aǩ74_Aǩ74_Aǩ74_7????pAǩ74_Avoided_extern_from_Gasoline6Gasoline_extern_per_liter*Less_Gasoline_liters_needed     !8Externalities avoidances translated in financial terms.# $9%&c-dA??AAA/????pAAdditional_extern_from_CH4.CH4_extern_per_liter_eq*Equiv_gasoline_liters     !0Externalities of the additional CH4 cars fleet.# $9%&c iAI}z{s2??AI}z{s2AI}zAI}z???{s2?AI}zTotal_running_costs!RunniMultiCosts+RunningMonoCosts)(  ) (  !# $9%&c &mABYcI8AEaQ" ??ABYcI8AEaQ" ABYcI8ABYcI8???ApJ߿X?ABYcI8 Total_costs'Total_Construction+Total_running_costs      !# $9%&g"p??????#Externalities from local pollution!# $9%&c`????????f?????p?Gasoline_CH4_converter1.05   ? !gIANGV and FIAT data (on FIAT "Multipla" efficiency). It is measured in gaoline liters/NG cubic meters.# $9%&c.rAXTH??AXTHAXTHAXTH????pAXTHEquiv_gasoline_liters/Additional_CH4_required*Gasoline_CH4_converter     !# $9%&Gaosline liters  gaosline literscwAK -ך??AK -ךAK -ךAK -ךV????pAK -ךAdditional_CH4_cars CH4_cars_stock-CH4fleet2004     !WIt measures the number of cars additional to the ones already in the fleet as of 2004.# $9%& c"tB1R??B1RB1RB1R????pB1RAdditional_KM_with_CH4#Additional_CH4_cars_*CH4carsmilage9   9  !Additional car/km tha BAU.# $9%&@c+}A,73 ??A,73 A,73 A,73 7????pA,73 Additional_CH4_required,Additional_KM_with_CH4/KMtravelledWithm3ch48   8  !8Additional demand for Natural Gas than in BAU scenario.# $9%&c$B(\6??B(\6B(\6B(\6^????pB(\6Less_KM_with_Gasoline%Additional_CH4_cars_*GasolineMileagek   k  !_Less kilometers travelled with gasoline fuelled cars because if the substitution with NG cars.# $9%&@cN A 4??A 4A 4A 4[????pA 4Less_Gasoline_liters_neededOif time=2004 then 0 else (Less_KM_with_Gasoline/KM_travelled_with_one_l_gasol)0           !\Less liters of gasoline that will be demanded because of the natural gas cars substitution.# $9%& c@'333333@'333333??@'333333@'333333@'333333@'333333???@'333333?p@'333333KM_travelled_with_one_l_gasol11.6   @'33 3333!# $9%&c?u%?u%???u%?u%?u%?u% ????u%?p?u%Gasoline_extern_per_liter0.1727   ? u%! IANGV data# $9%&c?lD?lD???lD?lD?lD?lD ????lD?p?lDCH4_extern_per_liter_eq0.0345   ? lD! IANGV data# $9%&cCA5TAׄ?A5TA5TA5T????pA5TAvoided_externalitiesD(Avoided_extern_from_Gasoline-Additional_extern_from_CH4)*InflationD    D  !"A>9XAl("A|g'AzHA <ЀA@i]A2YAZum[GAAd:AnlҶAR8Ar/A oAÍ ]A5TAvoided externalities are the additional externalities deriving from the swelling natural gas fleet and emissions avoided through a proportional reduction of the gasolie fuelled fleet.# $9%&c A `??A `A `A `????A `Virtual_avoided_costs!Avoided_externalities+CO2Savingsa   a  !# $9%&cAaTc@֒ ??AaTc@֒ AaTcAaTc???@֒ ?+AaTcCH4_cars_outflowTorn_down_share*CH4_cars_stock     !# $9%&c!????????k?????+?Buy_CH4_instead_of_diesel0.05   ? !lShare of cars buyers that intented to buy a diesel fuelled car and instead end up buying a CH4 fuelled car.# $9%&cMAscVAXZiB??AscVAXZiBAqw詰Aqw詰A???Ain4uq?+Aqw詰OEM_CH4_fuelled_carsN(Diesel_car_increase/(1-Buy_CH4_instead_of_diesel))/Buy_CH4_instead_of_diesel        !BOriginally equipment manufartured cars that runs with natural gas# $9%& ) }#!  $#*aJ@00v`%+,-./hh ffffff??ؿ%XAB: ?0 912)# # 3 S*J_@]]-lu1+,-./??ə?B:?0912)# # 3 S*J@oowj/+,-./?pbM?c?<B:?0912)# # 3 S*J@""d&+,-./?zG{???%B:?0912)# # 3 S* DA @c+,-CH4 cars share.3 S*J^@h+,-./>?:6C-?#{1yu%B:?0912)# # 3 S*J[@EE5[q +,-./@r@@@`@DB: ?0 912)# # 3 S*W @ ;+,-./?? 012)# S# 3( 0-90.90G90H90I9 S*W@2 2;+,-./?B:-?0-912)# # S3 S*W2@2F 2F;+,-./?B:.?0.912)# # S3 S*WF@FZ FZ;+,-./?B:G?0G912)# # S3 S*WZ@Zn Zn;+,-./?B:H?0H912)# # S3 S*Wn@n n;+,-./?B:I?0I912)# # S3 S** Df< @ Y X+,- Global emiss.3 S*NGDGB ?J+,-.4ZZ Inn$ n 5)6CH4aCleanerAiroCH4aCleanerAir Model Designed and implemented by Giorgio Ballardin (Scuola Mattei - Eni Corporate University)03 S*J6@yyzL?+,-./AOA"OAjAw@!B:0 ?00912)# # 3 S*J8@XJXJYN+,-./@jAO@@L<B:T ?0T912)# # 3 S* D @wD+,-Refueling plants investments.3 S*J@77o24+,-./@I@(@4B:`?0`912)# # 3 S* DV @#,1+,-#Mono and multifuel plants to build.3 S* D_ @@~+,-Plants to build.3 S***J @sTsTK6+,-./?zG{??zG{?zG{ B:F?0F912)# # 3 S* D> @ "Z+,- LogDynamic.3 S* D @sm+,-Runnnign costs.3 S*** D} @p .+,- Graph 9.3 S*NDPR XZ+,-.4A&nn 5)6RUN03 S*ND7  ?+,-.4Iln& n 5)6Set overall fleet ceiling03 S* D @ 3M+,-3Monofuel stations share and cars per filling plant.3 S*J"@!*8+,-./?ə??Q2B:b?0b912)# # 3 S* Dz @"mN+,-Local pollution reductions. 3 Sdrmd  P ! ``  * aa/+L@ 3+,-.3 * s4@GdHJ+,-.3 * cbR+ @ X4}p+,-.3 * c?J @5,Zh'0v+,-.3 * a"+'@ ,+,-.3 * a&+'@ ,+,-.3 * d3>+@*5<G+,-.3 * f0 @L>!#+060,-+.3 * a4+B@ M+,-.3 * c%7"+ @ @O +,-.3 * c- @ K abc +,-.3 * c` @ ; X+,-.3 * a + ']@ /a+,-.3 * a%@ +%@  ;*+,-.3 * c% @`? +,-.3 * c @O+,-.3 * cr @A +,-.3 * cL @Bg6+,-.3 * ab+n@ +,-.3 * c @1+,-.3 * c  @- +,-.3 * a+[r@ 0 +,-.3 * a+ @ +,-.3 * a+M]@  s+,-.3 * a+i@ n+,-.3 * aF+k@ Kp+,-.3 * a"%+,@ K+,-.3 * a+'Yb@ I4+,-.3 * a(+ J@ #O+,-.3 * a[X+,@ 'S`+,-.3 * ckM @a+oh+,-.3 * a'+z^@ jO+,-.3 * dNE+@ E<WN+,-.3 * a.+A@ !3+,-.3 * c @" +,-.3 * a5+B@ #0+,-.3 * cW @$3{%+,-.3 * a^$+O@ %Y+,-.3 * c @&1+,-.3 * a;R+O@ 'M@+,-.3 * aS+TD5@ (U+,-.3 * ar S+Uu]@ )/+,-.3 * s7@*{^+,-.3 * g!'Z@&!'++,&CH4 Fleet and filling plants forecast-.3 * d/+@,+,-.3 * a5>eY@ -9: +,-.3 * cj @.BEFQ+,-.3 * f @/),dh+!,-+u.3 * c0 @0Cj+,-.3 * c1 @1Ei+,-.3 * cf @2\<= +,-.3 * c @3A;+,-.3 * cO @4Ej >?@DY+,-.3 * cN @5=_9:=@+,-.3 * c M @618:>+,-.3 * cQL @7G;l] 89<?;+,-.3 * aM6+7LH@ ``CC8GMR+,-.3 * ayv7+59@ 9T8N+,-.3 * aW6+5*__@ : Nx+,-.3 * a3+7TM@ ;OR+,-.3 * a2+7EY@ <QOv+,-.3 * aj2+5V@ =eQ+,-.3 * a6+4@ > MK+,-.3 * aQC7+4O@ ?JVH+,-.3 * aJR5+4TIY@ @RK+,-.3 * c @AoDN!+,-.3 * c @BgM#+,-.3 * c3% @CHg+,-.3 * aI4+A