(July 5, 2001). "Demo Dozen." stm file. Retrieved July 14, 2001, from http://www.clexchange.org/dd_msst/. (1967). The Man Made World, Teacher's Manual. Washington, D.C., Commission on Engineering Education. (1968). The Development of a Computer Model for Projecting Statewide College Enrollments: A Preliminary Study, Rensselaer Research Corp. (1974). Bibliography on Growth and Education. Boulder, Colo., Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (1979). Nurse Training Act of 1975: Second Report to the Congress, March 15, 1979 (Revised), Health Resources Administration (DHEW/PHS), Bureau of Health Manpower. (1980). Advances Theory & Application, Academic Press. (1982). Advances in Control & Dynamic Systems, Academic Press. (1982). A Technology Lag that May Stifle Growth. Business Week: 126, 129-130. (1983). "Measuring Entry Barriers and the Rule of Reason: A Sophisticated Approach to Antitrust Analysis: Part I." Antitrust Law & Economics Review 15(4): 59-71. (1988). Mathless simulation with STELLA (?), The Technical Education Resource Center (TERC). (1988). "System Dynamics Review: Special Issue on Chaos." System Dynamics Review 4(1-2): 246. (1989). "Integrating Total Quality Control and System Thinking: a Conversation between Professor Shoji Shiba and Peter Senge." POM Spectrum(Fall). (1989). "Management Brief: Decisions, Decisions." Economist (UK) 312(7612): 64-65. (1990?). How It Ought To Be. Quincy, Mass., Massachusetts Dept. of Education. (1991). "The New System Dynamics Lab: A Cooperative Computing Venture." The University (of Vermont) Computing Newsletter 15(2): 1-3. (1991). "Pre-College Education Project." CENTER-PIECE: Mathematics, Science, Technology News from Lesley College 1991(February): 7 - 8. (1991). Vermont's Broad New Plan on Energy. New York Times. New York. (1992). "Brattleboro Union High School-A Start Down the Road." The Creative Learning Exchange 1(2): 1, 3-4. (1992). MOHAWK, Models of Human Activities in Work Context, Separate Papers 1. Roskilde, Riso National Laboratory. (1992). System Thinking Resource Guide, MIT System Dynamics Group. (1992). What is the Center for Organizational Learning?, MIT System Dynamics Group. (1993). 21st Century News: The Newsletter for Leaders of 21st Century Studies. G. O. Barney, Institute for 21st Century Studies, Inc. (1993). "Using Growth and Underinvestment for Capital Planning." The Systems Thinker 4(6). (1994). "Archetype-Behavior Pairs." The Systems Thinker 5(9). (1996, Jan 12, 2000). "Road Maps : A Guide to Learning System Dynamics." Retrieved July 14, 2001, from http://sysdyn.mit.edu/road-maps/home.html. (1999, June 16, 2001). "12 Days Training Materials." Retrieved July 14, 2001, from http://www.clexchange.org/lom/cle_lom_syseducation.html. Representing 6 years of development by the CC-STADUS/CC-SUSTAIN Project, these materials are based on the 12-day training that the NSF funded project has provided for teacher workshops each summer. (1999). Proceedings of the 17th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society and 5th Australian & New Zealand Systems Conference. Systems Thinking for the Next Millenium, Wellington, New Zealand, The System Dynamics Society. (2000). Proceedings of the 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Sustainability in the Third Millennium, Bergen, Norway, System Dynamics Society. (2001). "Informational Requirements and the Regulatory Process of Agricultural Biotechnology." Journal of Economic Issues 35(2): 323-334. (2001). "International Capital and Mexican Development : A System Dynamics Model." Journal of Economic Issues 35(2): 439-450. (2001, 05-Jul-2001). "Model Systems Self-Taught (MSST)." pdf file. Retrieved July 14, 2001, from http://www.clexchange.org/dd_msst/. (2001). Nonlinear Control Systems & Power System Dynamics. Series on Asian Studies in Computer & Information Science. Norwell, Kluwer Academic Publishers. (2001). Proceedings of the 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Atlanta, Georgia, System Dynamics Society. (2001). "Review : Cities and Regions as Self-Organizing Systems : Models of Complexity." System Dynamics Review 17(4): 365-371. (2002). "The Global Citizen : Celebrating the Life of Dana Meadows." System Dynamics Review 18(2): 101-310. (2002). Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. (2003). Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York City, USA, The System Dynamics Society. (2004). Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. (2005). "DVD Review : The MIT System Dynamics Group Literature Collection." System Dynamics Review 21(1): 91-94. The DVD contains over 3500 D-memos, along with theses, publications, the Guided Study Program, the Road Map series and miscellaneous papers selected by Jay W. Forrester and prepared by Nan Lux with support from the staff at the society office. (Ill.) Department of Energy and Natural Resources (1989). Illinois Statewide Electric Utility Plan, Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources. (Ill.) Department of Energy and Natural Resources (1990). Illinois Statewide Natural Gas Utility Plan, Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources. (Ill.) Department of Energy and Natural Resources (1991). Illinois Statewide Electric Utility Plan, Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources. (Ill.) Department of Energy and Natural Resources (1992). Illinois Statewide Gas Utility Plan 1993-2002, Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources. (Mass.) Executive Office of Energy Resources (1988). State Annual Forecast of Energy Resources, 1988-2000. (Mass.) Executive Office of Energy Resources (1990). State Annual Forecast of Energy Resources, 1989-2001. (U. S.) Department of Energy (1979). National Energy Plan II. (U. S.) Department of Energy (1981). Energy Projections to the Year 2000. (U. S.) Department of Energy (1983). Energy Projections to the Year 2010. Aameli, M. S. J., A. R. M. M. Sadeghi, et al. (2004). System Dynamics as a Useful Tool for Value Engineering. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. Value Engineering, Value Management and Value Analysis are terms which refer to function oriented problem-solving techniques that have been successfully applied world- wide to reduce costs, improve performance and quality, and “add value” to products and services. System Dynamics technique is used to study the dynamic behavior of a variety of complex systems. This paper describes how system dynamics models can be created to model changes and that occur in value over time. There are many parameters were used to monitor changes in value that occurs as supply and demand change. The value of all of the products is changed during time. Some of them are changed in a short period of time for example day and week, however the other period changes are years and decades. It is important that this behavior can be simulated during this periods and System Dynamics helps us to model all of these situations for the related model. Abbas, K. A. Simulation of the Effects of Transport Investment Policies on the Development of Road Infrastructure. Universities' Transport Studies Group Annual Meeting, Hatfield, UK, Hatfield Polytechnic. Abbas, K. A. (1990). A Road Provision Model Using System Dynamics. System Dynamics ‘90: Proceedings of the 1990 International Systems Dynamics Conference, Chestnut Hill, Mass., International System Dynamics Society. Abbas, K. A. (1990). The Use of System Dynamics in Modelling Transportation Systems With Respect to New Cities in Egypt. System Dynamics ‘90: Proceedings of the 1990 International Systems Dynamics Conference, Chestnut Hill, Mass., International System Dynamics Society. Abbas, K. A., M. G. H. Bell, et al. Computer based support for the Management of Investments in Road Infrastructure. Planning and Transport Research and Computation Summer Annual Meeting, Sussex. UK, University of Sussex. Abbott, M. D. and R. S. Stanley (1999). "Modeling Groundwater Recharge and Flow In an Upland Fractured Bedrock Aquifer." System Dynamics Review 15(2): 163 (22 pages). Abdel-Azim, H. Y. and K. Wahba (2002). System Dynamics Model for Computer Virus Prevalence. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. A standard SIR epidemic model is used as the backbone of this study, capitalizing on the dual nature of the biological virus, and computer virus prevalence. The basic SIR model has been extended to account for the important concept of a “kill signal” which is generated as an infected machine is virus-cleared. The “kill signal” spreads through a “word of mouth contact rate” (WMCR) informing physically connected machines, or machines that have exchanged software with the infected one about the virus. As a policy design it is suggested that the kill signal level, represented by a WMCR, will be dynamically increasing as the infectious population level increases. This has been proven theoretically using the simulation model to push down the epidemic level significantly, thus suggesting a very cost effective organizational policy to control the computer virus spreading. On the prevention level policy, controlling infectivity as well as the contact rate will help decrease the infection rate of PC's. AbdelGawad, A. A. (2004). An Automated System to Analyze System Dynamics Models. Bergen, University of Bergen. AbdelGawad, A. A., B. E. A. Abdel-Aleem, et al. (2005). Automated Eigenvalue Analysis of System Dynamics Models. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. The method presented in this paper allows for an investigation of how the eigenvalues characterizing the model behavior is created from the underlying model structure and how this behavior feeds back to change instantaneously the relative significance of the model structure. The method also allows us to identify the relative significance of the various parameters that governs the gains of the links and loops of the model. The method has been implemented using Matlab software for the purpose of facilitating an eigenvalue analysis of system dynamic models. This work is based on control theory as well as the previous work on eigenvalue analysis in system dynamics. It summarizes the thesis work by Ahmed AbdelTawab AbdelGawad (2004) and Bahaa E. Aly Abdel-Aleem (2004), under the supervision of Mohamed Saleh and Pål I. Davidsen. The method outlined and Matlab code developed in preparation for this paper may be implemented as part of any simulation package. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1984). The Dynamics of Software Development Project Management: An Integrative System Dynamics Perspective, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1987). Improving the Portability of Software Estimation Tools. 21st DoD Cost Analysis Symposium. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1988). "The Economics of Software Quality Assurance: A Simulation-Based Case Study." MIS Quarterly 12(3): 395-411. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1988). On the Economics of Software Quality Assurance. Third Intl. Conf. on Improving Software Quality and Productivity, Toronto, Quality Assurance Inst. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1988). "Understanding the '90% Syndrome' in Software Project Management: A Simulation-Based Case Study." J. Systems & Software. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1989). "The Dynamics of Software Project Staffing: A System Dynamics Based Simulation Approach." IEEE Trans. on Software Engineering. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1989). The Elusive Silver Lining: How we Fail to Learn from Failure in Software Development. CISR Summer Session, MIT. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1989). An Integrative System Dynamics Perspective of Software Project Management: Examples of Project Estimation and Scheduling Experiments. Soc. for Computer Simulation Western Multiconference. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1989). Modeling the Software Development Process: Before, During, and After. First Software Project Dynamics Modeling Workshop, Monterey, CA. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1989). On the Utility of Historical Project Statistics for Cost & Schedule Estimation. 23rd DoD Cost Analysis Symposium. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1989). "A Study of Staff Turnover, Acquisition, and Assimilation and their Impact on Software Development Cost and Schedule." J. Management Information Systems. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1990). "Investigating the Cost/Schedule Tradeoff in Software Development." IEEE Software 7(1): 97-105. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1990). "On the Utility of Historical Project Statistics for Cost and Schedule Estimation: Results from a Simulation-Based Case Study." Journal of Systems and Software 13(1): 71-82. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (1993). "Thinking In Circles." American Programmer 6(5): 3 - 9. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (2002). "Modeling the Dynamics of Human Energy Regulation and its Implications for Obesity Treatment." System Dynamics Review 18(4): 431-471. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (2003). The Obesity Problem : Is It a State In Mind? Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York City, USA, The System Dynamics Society. The growing obesity problem is addressed from a decision-theoretic perspective. In managing their health (and their bodies), people are viewed as decision makers who are managing a truly complex and dynamic system – the human body. The question is how effective the mental models that people rely on are for such a task? Specifically, our objective is twofold. First, to demonstrate the deficiencies in people’s mental models and the impacts they have on the treatment and prevention of obesity. Second, to demonstrate the utility of System Dynamics modeling tools to address these deficiencies through learning and decision support. A holistic system dynamics computer model is presented that integrates the processes of human metabolism, hormonal regulation, body composition, nutrition, and physical activity. The model serves as a laboratory tool for controlled experimentation to gain insight into the dynamics of body weight regulation. Three simulation experiments are conducted. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. (2003). "Response to Letter from Professor Platt." System Dynamics Review 19(2): 169-170. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1981). A Study of the Multicache Consistency Problem in Multiprocessor Computer Systems. Sixth Workshop on Computer Architecture for Non-Numerical Processing. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1982). A Model of Software Project Management Dynamics. Sixth Intl. Computer Software and Applications Conf. (COMPSAC). Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1983). "The Dynamics of Software Project Scheduling." Comm. of the ACM 26(5). Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1983). An Integrative Approach to Modeling the Software Management Process: A Basis for Identifying Problems and Evaluating Tools And Techniques. IEEE Computer Society Workshop on Software Engineering Technology Transfer. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1986). "Impact of Schedule Estimation on Software Project Behavior." IEEE Software 3(4). Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1987). "The Economics of Software Quality Assurance: A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Approach." Annals of the Society of Logistics Engineers. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1987). "On the Portability of Quantitative Software Estimation Models." Information & Management. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1989). "Lessons Learned from Modeling the Dynamics of Software Project Management." Comm. of the ACM. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1989). "Software productivity: potential, actual, and perceived." System Dynamics Review 5(2): 93-113. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1990). "The Elusive Silver Lining: How We Fail to Learn from Software Development Failures." Sloan ManagementReview 32(1): 39-48. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and S. E. Madnick (1991). Software Project Dynamics: An Integrated Approach. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, USA, Prentice Hall. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and N. O. Mansour (1982). Improving Software Development Productivity: A Challenge and an opportunity for Developing Nations. First Intl. Computer Conf. in Egypt, Cairo. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and J. D. W. Morecroft (1983). A Generic System Dynamics Model of Software Project Management. Intl. System Dynamics Conf. Abdel-Hamid, T. K. and T. R. Sivasankaran (1988). Incorporating Expert Systems Technology Into Simulation Modeling: An Expert-Simulator for Project Management. Soc. for Computer Simulation Western Multiconference. Abdin, M. F. and N. S. Mohamed (1986). "The Role of Simulation in Design of FMSs." Computers & Industrial Engineering 11(1-4): 372-376. Abdou, G. and S. P. Dutta (1993). "A Systematic Simulation Approach for the Design of JIT Manufacturing Systems." Journal of Operations Management 11(3): 225-238. Abeyrama, T. and K. Saeed (1984). "The Gramodaya Mandalaya Scheme in Sri Lanka: Participatory Development or Power Play?" Community Development J. 19(l): 20-31. Aboelata, M. (1998). Object-Oriented Modeling Framework for Water Resources Policy Analysis, The University of Manitoba, Department of Civil and Geological Engineering, Winnipeg, Canada. Abraham, R. H. (1987). Dynamics and Self-Organization. Self-Organizing Systems: The Emergence of Order. F. E. Yates. New York, Plenum Press. Aburdene, M. F. (1988). Computer Simulation of Dynamic Systems, Wm C Brown. Acharya, S. R. and K. Saeed (1996). "An Attempt to Operationalize the Recommendations of the 'Limits to Growth' Study to Sustain the Future of Mankind." System Dynamics Review 12(4): 281-304. Experimenting further with the World3 model, this paper attempts to formulate the operational means to implement the critical recommendations of the "Limits to Growth" study. With feedback as the organizing principle and the work of Daly(1991), Page(1977) and Saeed(1985) as guidelines, additional policy space has been built into the model to accommodate controversial views on resource policy and to self-regulate its critical policy parameters. The policies so created not only appear to lie within the scope of existing and potentially feasible regulatory institutions, they are also insensitive to their respective behavioral parameters as well as to the timing of intervention. Furthermore, these policies strive to influence day-by-day actions of the actors in the system instead of imposing the drastic schedule of changes in lifestyle that is implicit in the literal interpretation of the broad recommendations of the "Limits" study. In addition, the implementation of these policies appears to be possible through a national rather than a global order. Achi, Z., A. Doman, et al. (1995). "The Paradox of Fast-Growth Tigers." The McKinsey Quarterly(3): 4-17. Achterbergh, J., R. Espejo, et al., Eds. (1997). Orgainzational Cybernetics. Research Memorandum. Nijmegen, Nijmegen Business School. Ackerman, J. (1998). The Application of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics in the Strategic Transformation of Public Enterprises. 16th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Quebec '98, Quebec City, Canada, System Dynamics Society. Ackerman, J. and A. duPlessis (2000). Systems Thinking And Scenario Planning: A South African Case Study Of The Strategic Transformation Of A Manufacturing Company. 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Bergen, Norway, System Dynamics Society. This presentation is a case study on structured transformation through the application of systems thinking in the manufacturing industry of South Africa. The post-apartheid era initiated radical changes in business paradigms within the country that led, inter alia, to changes in stakeholder profiles and requirements. Against this background Iscor Ltd (a privatised former state corporation) embarked on a scenario-based process of structured transformation. The application of systems thinking approaches and scenario-based planning in an environment never exposed to such logic, caused its own contextual challenges. Getting acceptance from decision-makers for the application of software in the modelling of thinking patterns and the prioritisation of issues and strategies was particularly difficult. Both authors are involved in the design and execution of the transformation program. This presentation is based on the experience gained in the application of the scenario planning methodology within the company’s overall strategic planning cycle. The presentation will focus on the approach that was used, the tools utilised and the challenges experienced. Thus it provides insight into the application of scenario planning as a tool for the systemic understanding of organisational problems in the context of rapid political and socio-economic change and transformation, and of increasing globalisation. Ackermann, F., D. F. Andersen, et al. (2000). The TPI Framework : An Integrated Approach To Strategy Development. 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Bergen, Norway, System Dynamics Society. This paper presents a framework that integrates several prominent streams of research and practice in strategy development with system dynamics group model-building approaches to create a new and integrative approach to organizational strategy development. With respect to the theory and practice of strategy development, the TPI framework draws heavily on the approach of Bryson (1995) coupled to that of Eden and Ackermann (1998) with an approach to stakeholder analysis and management that is drawn from Finn (1997). The system dynamics component of the framework draws from both standard principles of system dynamics modeling (Richardson, 1981) as well as more recent work in group model building (Andersen and Richardson, 1997 and Richardson and Andersen 1995). Finally, the framework links to an explicit theory of organizational leadership as articulated by Bryson and Crosby (1992). The framework posits the existence of a number of conceptual principles that underpin a coherent approach to organizational strategy development, strategic change and realignment. In turn, these principles are linked to a set of software, groupware, and organizational development tools that are used by strategy change agents when they engage in client-based projects. The TPI framework was developed and refined in a series of workshops held between 1995 and 1999 by the authors of this paper and has been recently recast as a graduate course in Strategic and Systems Thinking (Andersen 1999) at the Rockefeller College, University at Albany. The framework will be taught during the summer of 2000 at the Humphrey Institute as well as at the Strathclyde Business School. The framework continues to evolve as it is tested and refined in practice. Ackermann, F., S. Howick, et al. (2004). Stirling Revisited : Practical Approaches to Merging Two Systems Thinking Streams. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. The 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, held in Stirling, reviewed a range of related Systems Thinking approaches. This paper focuses on the specific approach described by Eden in Stirling and proposes a number of guidelines that can be used to explicitly and formally link Eden's Systems Thinking approaches to formal simulation models. The specific case presented involves linking semantically rich scenario maps to a formal causal influence diagram that was in turn used as the basis for a formal simulation model. While the case reported on is quite specific, we suggest that a broader range of complementary systems thinking approaches can and should be integrated with more traditional SD simulation methods. The specific case study reported on examines a scenario-based simulation of the promotion of renewable energy sources in the UK electric power market. This work also informs on-going research in group model building, strategy modeling (especially using scenarios) and the on-going debate about qualitative vs. quantitative system dynamics. Ackermann, F., T. M. Williams, et al. (2003). "Structuring a Delay and Disruption Claim : an Application of Cause-Mapping and System Dynamics." European Journal of Operational Research 148: 192-204. Ackermann, F., T. M. Williams, et al. (1994). Using Cognitive Mapping to Develop a Large Forensic System Dynamics Model. 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, Sterling, Scotland, System Dynamics Society. Ackoff, R. L. (1994). "Systems Thinking and Thinking Systems." System Dynamics Review 10(2/3): 175-188. Ackoff, R. L. (2001). "OR : After the Post Mortem." System Dynamics Review 17(4): 341-346. Ackoff, R. L. and P. M. Senge (2002). The Dynamic Concept of an Enterprise; and, Managing and Leading Organizations as Communities. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. Russell L. Ackoff and Peter M. Senge will speak on THE DYNAMIC CONCEPT OF AN ENTERPRISE and MANAGING AND LEADING ORGANIZATIONS AS COMMUNITIES respectively. Conceptual transformations to management and organizations in an enterprise, and the evolving qualities of organizations as human communities, will be discussed. Russell L. Ackoff is Anheuser-Busch Professor Emeritus of Management Science at The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, an author and co-author. Peter M. Senge is a Senior Lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Founding Chair of the Society for Organizational Learning (SoL), author and co- author. Acuña Moreno, N., R. C. Cuevas, et al. (2001). Caleb: Microworld of the Christian Church's Membership Dynamics. The 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Atlanta, Georgia, System Dynamics Society. This paper proposes a software named Caleb. Caleb is a microworld based on system dynamics that allows study of the dynamics of the membership in a Christian Church located in Bucaramanga, Colombia. The Church has been developed in the course of fifteen years, from zero to presently 3500 members. In this course the church has lost 6000 members. The problem is explained using system dynamics. The elements of growth and decline of membership are integrated in a system dynamics model. To finish, the paper presents several ideas for the manager of the Church, about how use the software to re-think activities to develop his organization. Adamides, E., G. Papaioannou, et al. (2007). Thinking global, acting local: The activities of the Hellenic Chapter of the System Dynamics Society Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. Adamides, E., N. Pomonis, et al. (2007). Path dependence and transients in random and adaptive walks on strategy fitness landscapes Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. Over the last decade complexity theory in general, and Kaufmann’s NK fitness landscape model in particular, have been very popular means of promoting evolutionary and prosessualistic approaches to strategic management. However, either in pure conceptual, or in more formal forms, these models assume rather naïve, “memoryless” and unrestricted by past choice strategy processes (organisational structure and decision making), i.e. they ignore the internal dynamics of the strategy-formulation system. In this paper, we demonstrate how system dynamics modelling can enrich the NK fitness landscape model so that these drawbacks are overcome, especially with respect to the way the fitness landscape is searched/walked. The resulting modelling framework becomes particularly useful for understanding strategic behaviours and assessing strategic flexibility under the assumption of resource-based competition as it allows the explicit modelling of the dynamics of assets accumulation and the complementarity and substitution effects among strategic decisions and actions towards resource and capability development for achieving higher fitness. We demonstrate our approach in the modelling of operations strategy as an emergent process of distributed decision making for capabilities development. Adamides, E. D. (2006). A system dynamics computer-based learning environment for the formulation of manufacturing strategy. Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. The paper discusses how a Computer Based Learning Environment (CBLE), which is based on a system dynamics model, can form the basis of strategy formulation processes at the operations level. The rationale behind, the structure and the elements of the SYDMAS CBLE, as well as its embedment in a scenario-driven manufacturing strategy formulation process are presented. Through a use case, it is shown how the CBLE can enhance the manufacturing strategy formulation process by providing a dynamic perspective and by effectively supporting the related social and knowledge processes. Adamides, E. D., N. Pomonis, et al. (2004). Embedding Game-Theoretic Concepts into System Dynamics Models : The Case of Complementary Products Development. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. The problem of mutual resource commitment during the development of complementary products is modeled as an evolutionary Prisoner’s Dilemma game. To investigate the effect of different pure and mixed cooperation and/or defection strategies over the period of a technology cycle, a system dynamics simulation model has been built using the resource-based view of the firm. The dynamics of tangible and intangible assets, such as customer base and technological learning, were included in the model. Cooperation and defection payoffs have been assumed to be time-dependent. The model was calibrated using data from the video games industry. Simulations run for different complementors’ strategies show the importance of early cooperation during technology cycles. The model can be used in an interactive mode to evaluate more complex industry-specific strategies. Adamides, E. D., Y. A. Stamboulis, et al. (2005). Modularity and Strategic Flexibility: A Cognitive and Dynamic Perspective. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. The paper addresses the question whether a modular organizational structure breeds mechanisms that promote proactive strategic flexibility. We examine this question from the perspective of the cognitive school of strategic management and with the aid of system dynamics modeling and simulation to explore long-term dynamic effects. Both our analysis and our experiments with the model suggest that modular organizations do not necessarily encourage the construction of managers’ mental models with a capability to generate more strategic options and, thus, do not promote strategic flexibility at a higher degree compared to more traditional organizational structures. Adamo, J. M. and M. Karsky (1977). Applications de la Dynamique des Systèmes et de la Logique Floue à un Problème de Relations du Travail. Sèminaire AFCET Groupe Dynamique des Systèmes, Solaize. Addison, L. E., J. W. Litchfield, et al. (1974). Managing Growth and Change in R&D Organization: The Role of Dynamic Modeling. IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Dallas TX. Addison, L. E., J. W. Litchfield, et al. (1975). Management Decision Policy Analysis with System Dynamics. Eighth Annual Simulation Symposium, Tampa, FL. Addison, L. E., M. H. Mickle, et al. (1974). Dynamic Leontief Model for a Productive System. Proceedings of the 1974 International Conference on System Man and Cybernetics. Adel, Z. and K. Wahba (2002). Impact of Marketing Mix on Exports of Egyptian Textiles Using a System Dynamics Approach. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. This paper is in quest of building a system dynamics model for the Egyptian textile industry which can be used for testing ideas to enhance the status of this industry, prepare it for expected local and international environmental changes, and boost exports. This paper concluded the high importance of investment in raw cotton development to increase exports of raw cotton and finished textile. It showed that early investment to increase fine raw cotton production is more effective in increasing exports than investment in textile manufacturing development, which would be more important after raw cotton production increase. It showed also that investment in distribution and promotion helps against competition with results better than quality and research and development for the Egyptian textile-manufacturing sector. Also, investment in quality of finished textiles should be sustainable at high levels to give a real positive effect on exports. Adler, K. J. and R. L. Eberlein (1987). Depression, Perception and Cognition. International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Shanghai, International System Dynamics Society. Adler, T. and J. Ison (1980). Analysis of Long-Term Transportation Energy Use, Dartmouth System Dynamics Group, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College. Adner, R. and C. E. Helfat (2003). "Corporate Effects and Dynamic Managerial Capabilities." Strategic Management Journal 24: 101-1025. Afanasyev, V. G. (1980). "Dynamics of Social Systems - Dinamika sotsial'nykh sistem." Kommunist 1980(5): 56-70. Affeldt, J. F. (2006). The Application of System Dynamics Simulation to Volatile System Management. Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. One of the most volatile market environments of our time is the energy business. Whether the energy medium is gasoline, electricity, or natural gas, traditional market forces do not seem to exert the same influences as in other markets. Indeed, the behavior of the energy market sometimes seems to defy traditional understanding of the law of supply and demand. Management of, and survival within, such a system requires deep understanding of the system’s potential behaviors under many different scenario settings. System Dynamics (SD) is posited as the most appropriate first methodology to apply when a system with highly volatile behavior is under scrutiny. This paper presents the background and some of the lessons learned from projects in which SD simulation was applied to analyze and understand the highly volatile energy market. A natural gas strategic acquisition simulation provides a tool for examination of market dynamics with a focus on acquisition strategy, while a gasoline business simulation provides insights into the supply side of the energy business. The application of SD to volatile environment management is not new; the scale of these simulations, and some of the techniques used for design and rollout potentially make the projects unique. Agarwal, A. and R. Shankar (2005). Modeling Supply Chain Performance in Different Market Scenarios. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. Performance of a supply chain depends on the integration of its trading partners and its abillity to quickly respond to market changes. A system dynamics approach has been attempted in this paper to model the effect of integration and agility on performance of a case supply chain involved in FMCG business. The dynamic interactions between the different variables related to cause and effect of integration and agility of a case supply chain performance variables indicates that the influence of increase in integration level on the performance of the case supply chain is relatively more significant as compared to the influence of a similar increase in the agility level. Agbodan, M. (1972). "Organic and Inorganic Theory of Development - Organische und Anorganische Entwicklungstheorie zur Neudeutung des Auslandischen Entwicklungsbeitrages Eine Modell-theoretische Darstellung." Dritte Welt [Die ] 1(4): 479-497. Aggarwal, S. (1995). Population Dynamics of the Zebra Mussel in the Illinois River. Urbana, University of Illinois: 143. Ahmad, S. and S. P. Simonovic (2000). Dynamic Modeling Of Flood Management Policies. 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Bergen, Norway, System Dynamics Society. Economic and social impacts related to flood disaster are two important and interdependent issues addressed by flood management policies. Economic impacts include structural and non-structural damages caused by the floods and the social impacts of flood disaster are mainly related to evacuation, where public response to disaster warning plays an important role. This paper presents a system dynamics model that captures dynamic interaction between different components of the flood management system. The model provides a platform for evaluation of the consequences of various policy alternatives for flood management. The operation of reservoir and floodway has been simulated. Operating rules are developed for high flow/flood years to minimize flooding. Alternative operating rules are explored by changing reservoir storage allocation and outflows. Impacts on the flood management capacity of the reservoir are investigated by simulating gated spillway in addition to an existing unregulated spillway. Flood damages to buildings and infrastructure are calculated. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reservoir levels at the start of the flood season and outflow from the reservoir. The modeling work on economic impacts of flood management policies is complete. However, the work on social aspects of flood management especially public response to flood warning and people’s perception of risk with special relevance to evacuation planning is in progress. The model is implemented for the Red River basin in Canada using recorded data of large flood events. Ahmad, S. and S. P. Simonovic (2000). "System Dynamics Modeling of Resevoir Operations for Flood Management." Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering 14(3): 190-198. Ahmed, F. M., K. Wahba, et al. (2005). The Dynamics of Glucose Regulatory System: An Educational Tool for the Students of First Medical Year. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. The glucose regulatory system in man is a complex system. It is a nonlinear, multiloop, self-regulatory feedback system which exhibits behavior which is often counter-intuitive and which is insensitive to many external interference. The challenge in this work is to employ a model that is “simple, but not too simple” for the students of first medical year with the purpose to help them understand the glucose regulatory system in the human being body by quasi-practical approach based on simulation tool and not my theoretical understanding. This model describes the carbohydrate metabolism, digestion, absorption and fate of intake carbohydrates. The model attempts to reflect the underlying (patho) physiology of insulin action and carbohydrate absorption in quantitative terms such as insulin sensitivity, volume of glucose and insulin distribution and maximal rate of gastric emptying. The model represents the integration of two existing models proposed earlier by Foster et al. (1970) and Lehmann et al. (1992). Ahmed, N. M. M. (2003). The Dynamics of Twin Crises in Asia-An Insight into The Egyptian Economy. Maastricht, Netherlands, Maastricht School of Management. The study attempts to identify the extent of similarities, and/or differences between the conditions that surrounded the Asian tigers economies from 1994-1999, and those in Egypt from 1998-2003. A generic “Business Dynamics model” is developed, based on a simplified causal framework of three main independent groups of variables; economic fundamentals, Real and Financial links, and vulnerability indicators, the relevant data for Indonesia is chosen for the simulation model. Although similar symptoms between the two cases were identified, the origins for trouble were quite different; while the Indonesian crisis was mainly attributable to the combination of fixed exchange regime, moral hazard, and excessive financial liberalization, the Egyptian economy has suffered a weak real sector, undiversified and exogenously determined sources of hard currency, and a long- lasting rigid exchange rate system. In summary, the authors contend that even a floatation of the Egyptian pound has taken place, the Egyptian currency crisis would not have been resolved, unless drastic measures were to be taken to trouble shoot the other two main sources of trouble; low levels of exports, and undiversified sources of dollar flows. Ahmed, N. M. M. and K. Wahba (2004). The Dynamics of Twin Crises in Asia : A Comparison between the Egyptian and the Indonesian Currency Crises. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. The study attempts to identify the extent of similarities, and/or differences between the conditions that surrounded the Asian tigers economies from 1994-1999, and those in Egypt from 1998-2003. A generic “Business Dynamics model” is developed, based on a simplified causal framework of three main independent groups of variables; economic fundamentals, Real and Financial links, and vulnerability indicators, the relevant data for Indonesia is chosen for the simulation model. Although similar symptoms between the two cases were identified, the origins for trouble were quite different; while the Indonesian crisis was mainly attributable to the combination of fixed exchange regime, moral hazard, and excessive financial liberalization, the Egyptian economy has suffered a weak real sector, undiversified and exogenously determined sources of hard currency, and a long- lasting rigid exchange rate system. In summary, the authors contend that even a floatation of the Egyptian pound has taken place, the Egyptian currency crisis would not have been resolved, unless drastic measures were to be taken to trouble shoot the other two main sources of trouble; low levels of exports, and undiversified sources of dollar flows. Ahn, N. S. (1999). A System Dynamics Model of a Large Research and Development Program. Dept. of Nuclear Engineering. Cambridge, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: 160. Aizhu, L. and H. Zheng (1992). An Oil Field Planning Support System based on System Dynamics. Proceedings of the 1992 International System Dynamics Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Utrecht, the Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. Ajami, M., A. N. Mashayekhi, et al. (2001). Intervention for Organizational Learning Improvement. The 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Atlanta, Georgia, System Dynamics Society. Because of rapid environmental changes, the rate at which organizations learn may become the only sustainable source of competitive advantage. Organizations learn through their individuals. This article describes a method of intervention by a facilitator designed to enhance organization learning through changes in individuals’ mental models and vision based on Senge’s concepts and approach to organizational learning. Three power plants were used as the field for the research. The facilitator made several interventions in the management teams thinking process in several periods. In each period the nature and approach of the intervention was different. Interventions included: (1) introduction to basic theories of management principles, system thinking, and organizational learning, (2) facilitating the formation of shared vision process, (3) facilitating the formation of shared mental model process. In the second and third periods of the intervention, the discipline of dialogue was emphasized. The results and effectiveness of the interventions after each period were measured and evaluated using cognitive mapping methods. Ajami, M., A. N. Mashayekhi, et al. (2002). A Comparative Study Among Policy and Decision Makers Through Their Mental Models. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. Cognitive map analysis has been widely used to understand the structure of decision-makers thought. It has been introduced as a proper tool to map the mental model of a decision-maker. Facilitators as agents who intervene and facilitate change in the mental models can use it to map the mental model of managers and assist them to change it or evaluate its changes over time. This paper introduces a framework of intervention, which has been implemented in three companies in order to change individuals’ mental models toward shared mental models. Cognitive maps are used to measure the impact of intervention in different stages. Cognitive maps of three decision-makers, in three companies, have been used as a tool to measure the changes in the thought processes of decision-makers and to measure the rate of sharing among them after each intervention. Analysis and evaluation of the rate of sharing and the contents leads to some guidelines for more effective intervention. Ajami, M. and R. Sotudeh (2000). Power Plant Performance : Identification of a Relationship Between Availability, Reliability and Productivity. 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Bergen, Norway, System Dynamics Society. Quality of electrical energy is measured by means of two categories of indices: One category is technical indices which are integrated in availability (A) and reliability (R). Another category of indices is economical which is integrated in productivity (P) index. Three mentioned integrated indices are collectively abbreviated to ARP indices and performance is a function of them. The ranges of ARP variations are vast and every country based on the level of its technological, economical and based on its social conditions should find the optimum level of the indices and then try to increase them gradually. This paper, at the level of power plant, describes the performance improvement via internal relations of the ARP indices and shows their interrelations by means of causal diagram and determines the strategies and related policies, as managerial manoeuvres, to improve the performance. Akaike, H. and T. Nakagawa (1989). Statistical Analysis & Control of Dynamic Systems, Kluwer Academic. Akcam, B., D. Andersen, et al. (2007). Secondary Data Analysis in System Dynamics Modeling Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. The importance of qualitative data is appreciated in the System Dynamics field since its early days. In his description of information content, Forrester (1980) categorized information into three main databases; Mental, written and numerical. Most of the information available to modeler is qualitative in nature. Forrester (1991) discusses that despite qualitative information’s importance, management and social scientists have long been neglected this “far richer and more informative body of information that exist in the knowledge and experience of those in the active, working world.” Luna-Reyes and Andersen (2003) indicate the lack of well defined protocols to incorporate qualitative information during the modeling process. In their paper, they discuss the suitability of several qualitative data collection methods in the different stages of the modeling process. In their conclusion, they indicate the need for the development and testing formal protocols involving qualitative social research techniques to support the modeling process. This paper is indented to respond such need by developing and testing a formal protocol to support the test of a generic dynamic theory by using qualitative data analysis techniques. These techniques will be used to do secondary data analysis of previously done interviews by other researchers. Akcam, B. and V. Asal (2005). The Dynamics of Ethnic Terrorism. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. Despite the fact that much of recent terror is ethnically based, little attention has been paid to systematically explaining ethnic violence. We build on the work done by the Minorities at Risk Project (MAR) to the issue of ethnic terror using systems dynamics. While there has been important work done using MAR to explore ethnic violence as a base using statistics and qualitative analysis (Gurr 2000) there has been little work exploring ethnic terrorism specifically and none that has exploited systems dynamics as an analytical tool. The application of a systems dynamics approach will help us go beyond some of the limitations of statistical analysis to explore how government policy and ethnonationalist terrorism feed of each other in a cycle of violence, discrimination and repression. This work has three broad goals. First, it is targeted at understanding the causes of ethnic terror and second examining the way the relation between the ethnic policies of governments and the behavior of ethnic groups - particularly their choice to use or not use terrorism relate systematically. Third, this work sees to apply for the first time the tools of systems dynamics to political violence. Akcam, B., A. M. Cresswell, et al. (2006). Testing a Generic Dynamic Theory of Collaboration in the World Trade Center Case. Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. Researchers at University at Albany did twenty-nine in-depth interviews for gathering first-person accounts of activities, decisions, problems, and solutions of the World Trade Center response and recover process. A generic dynamic theory of collaboration is tested in this interview dataset. The theory is based on Luna-Reyes, et al.’s (2004) model on interagency collaboration. It’s found that during the response and recovery processes participants developed several social accumulations (individual understanding, shared understanding, and relationships). These social accumulations again improved the effectiveness of the processes they were produced. They also increased the effectiveness of other processes in response and recovery effort. These findings are consistent with the generic dynamic theory of collaboration Luna-Reyes, et al. (2004) proposed. A system dynamics model is developed to discuss several different scenarios. Akkentli, Ö. and M. Nuhoglu (2002). Traffic Deadlock Caused by Two Intersections. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. In this work, we discovered an important feedback structure in the traffic flow, which generates a threshold value that causes deadlock in the traffic flow. There is a two-way main artery, which is fed by two intersecting roads in reverse directions. When the traffic flow is congested, one of the main arteries may become full. Then the cars coming from the intersecting road that feeds this artery stop in the junction. By doing so, these cars cause the other main artery, which is in the reverse direction, to be blocked. Therefore the tail of the jam in this artery becomes longer and the cars entering the artery stop in the outflow junction of the first artery. Since the other road is also blocked, the outflow of this road becomes blocked and none can move anywhere. This work is evidence for the argument that individual movements – movements which do not care about the system structure – lead to system crash. Akkermans, H. (2007). Beyond Rounding Up the Usual Suspects: Towards Effective Quality Management Policies for Production Ramp-ups in Supply Chains Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. This study investigates the issue of managing quality during production ramp-ups in high-tech supply chains. It combines an in-depth case study of one particular high-tech supply chain setting with insights from the recently-emerging literature on behavioral operations and synthesizes these two into a system dynamics simulation model. Model analysis suggests that isolated and intuitively appealing quality management policies are likely to lead to suboptimal or even detrimental results. Of crucial importance is finding the balance between ramping up production rates sufficiently fast to capture short-lived market demand and avoiding to increasing production starts so high that workload levels in the supply chain move beyond the tipping point. This means that when workloads become too high, the entire supply chain can get bogged down in a vicious cycle of high workloads leading to low quality levels, which lead to high rework levels and hence to even higher workloads. Especially promising policies to be used in combination are, firstly, moderate production ramp-up rates that turn out to generate more timely output than overly aggressive production ramp-ups. Secondly, policies that leverage the expertise that can be gained from analyzing defective units that cannot be repaired easily downstream, as these may yield knowledge regarding hidden quality issues upstream Akkermans, H. and W. van Oppen (2007). From Mopping the Floor to Fixing the Plumbing: How KPN Telecom Uses SD to Improve Ramp-ups In its Service Supply Network Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. Paper describes an ongoing applied research project at KPN Telecom, the leading mobile and fixed telephony operator in the Netherlands. The project describes is aimed at developing a collaborative sales & operations planning business process at KPN that will support the ramp-up of new IP-based service offerings through KPN’s service supply network. Paper discusses root causes for why coordinating capacity and sales ramp-ups in the various stages of the chain is far more difficult in service than in manufacturing. Introduces workload as a key organising concept in collaborative supply chain coordination during ramp-ups. Describes project findings so far, which are still limited to conceptual simulation model development through group model-building workshops. Subsequent project results will be incorporated in the paper as these become available. Akkermans, H. A. (1992). Participative Modeling To Support Strategic Decision Making in Operations-A Case Study. Proceedings of the 1992 International System Dynamics Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Utrecht, the Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. Akkermans, H. A. (1993). "Participative Business Modelling to Support Strategic Decision Making in Operations - A Case Study." International Journal of Operations & Production Management 13(10): 34-48. Akkermans, H. A. (1995). "Developing A Logistics Strategy Through Participative Business Modeling." International Journal of Operations & Production Management 15(11): 100-112. Akkermans, H. A. (1995). Modelling with Managers : Participative Business Modelling to Support Strategic Decision-Making, Eindhoven University of Technology. Akkermans, H. A. (1995). Quantifying the Soft Issues: A Case Study in the Banking Industry. System Dynamics '95, Tokyo, International System Dynamics Society. Akkermans, H. A. (1999). "Designing Effective Quality Management Policies with System Dynamics Simulation." International Journal of Applied Quality Management 2(2). Akkermans, H. A. (2001). Emergent Supply Networks. System Dynamics Simulation of Adaptive Supply Agents. Proceedings of the 34th Hawaii International Conference on Systems Sciences, University of Hawaii. Akkermans, H. A. (2001). "Renga : A Systems Approach to Facilitating Inter-Organizatonal Network Development." System Dynamics Review 17(3): 179-193. Akkermans, H. A. (2003). Supply Chain Management I and II. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York City, USA, The System Dynamics Society. Recently, effective management of supply chains has gained unprecedented interest from academics and practitioners from the fields of mainstream operations management (OM) and operations research/management science (OR/MS). However, many of the most urgent and challenging puzzles in this area appear to be in need of a new research perspective if they are to be solved. Examples of such "hot topics" include the interaction of product development and manufacturing during new product introduction, information sharing in decentralised supply chains, dynamic interactions of "hard" performance indicators and "soft" variables such as trust and customer satisfaction, root causes for upstream demand amplification and ways of overcoming the resulting "bullwhip effect". All these topics can be effetively tackled by system dynamics and the many supply chain- related papers at the 2003 conference show that this is precisely what is happening. The two parallel sessions scheduled read like a showcase of the vibrant state-of-the-art here. Akkermans, H. A. and W. J. M. Bertrand (1997). "On the Usability of Quantitative Modelling in Operations Strategy Decision Making." International Journal of Operations & Production Management 17(10): 953-966. Akkermans, H. A., P. Bogerd, et al. (2004). "Travail, Transparency and Trust : A Case Study of Computer-Supported Collaborative Supply Chain Planning in High-Tech Electronics." European Journal of Operational Research 153: 445-456. Akkermans, H. A., P. Bogerd, et al. (2004). "Travail, Transparency and Trust: A case study of computer-supported collaborative supply chain planning in high-tech electronics." European Journal of Operational Research 153: 445-456. Akkermans, H. A., P. Bogerd, et al. (1999). "Virtuous and Vicious Cycles on the Road Towards International Supply Chain Management." International Journal of Operations and Production Management 19(5/6): 565-581. Akkermans, H. A., P. Bogerd, et al. (1999). "Virtuous and vicious cycles on the road towards international supply chain management." International Journal of Operations and Production Management 19(5/6): 565-581. Akkermans, H. A. and J. Bosker (1994). Design Guidelines for Participative Business Modeling. 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, Sterling, Scotland, System Dynamics Society. Akkermans, H. A., W. Cnossen, et al. (2004). Riding the Seven Waves : Mastering Supply Network Dynamics. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. This workshop discusses different aspects of complex dynamic behavior in supply chains and networks. More and more companies operate in effect as parts of highly decentralised interorganisational supply networks. This makes the challenge of coordinating activities within these networks all the greater. Companies have to "ride the waves" of many dynamic developments that they alone cannot control. In this workshop, we look at seven of those waves: - How to avoid the bullwhip effect ofupstream demand amplification? - How to keep capacity in sync with sales as market demand keeps increasing? - How to smoothen the transition from product development to production ramp-up? - How to smoothen the effects of the business cycle on your company’s performance? - How to grow effective and close partnership with key suppliers and customers without losing flexibility in the market? - How to make the dynamics of market standardisation work for instead of against you? - How to manage timely transitions in organisational change? Workshop format will be highly interactive, with tailored presentations on the one hand, and group model-building sessions on the other. Computerised models of these policy issues will be available. Akkermans, H. A. and N. Dellaert (2005). "The Rediscovery of Industrial Dynamics : The Contribution of System Dynamics to Supply Chain Management in a Dynmaic and Fragmented World." System Dynamics Review 21(3): 173-186. Akkermans, H. A. and K. v. Oorschot (2002). Developing a Balanced Scorecard with System Dynamics. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a popular concept for performance measurement, because it focuses attention of management on just a few measures and bridges different functional areas (both financial and non-financial measures are included in the BSC). But, the BSC has also received some criticism. In this paper five limitations of the use of the BSC are discussed: BSCs focus on unidirectional causality, are unable to distinguish delays between actions and their impact on performance, have a dearth of validation capabilities, integrate insufficiently strategy with operational measures and suffer from internal biases. We propose a system dynamics approach to develop a BSC in order to overcome these limitations. We present a case study from the insurance sector where this approach is applied. The results suggest that developing a BSC with system dynamics is a promising approach to supplement existing BSC frameworks. Akkermans, H. A. and K. v. Oorschot (2004). Time for a Hundred Visions and Revisions : A System Dynamics Study of the Impact of Concurrent Engineering on Supply Chain Performance. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. Concurrent engineering is now commonly seen as a fruitful approach to shortening development times in product development. Concurrent engineering leads to earlier feedback and more intense communication between the different stages in product development. But, what is its effect on supply chain performance once the design that has thus been detailed out has to be manufactured? This paper focuses on this question. It presents a quantitative system dynamics study of a real-world case from the aerospace industry. In aerospace, product development typically takes many years and costs tens to hundred of millions. Our analysis suggests that concurent engineering can have a major impact on performance in aerospace supply chains, not just because production can start sooner and hence go down the learning curve earlier, but also because early feedback from production leads to improved designs during product development as well. These will then need less rework once they enter into manufacturing. Akkermans, H. A. and K. v. Oorschot (2004). Time Will Tell : The Impact of Demand Cyclicality and Supply Lead Times on Customer Order Information Sharing in Supply Chains. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. Sharing of end customer information with suppliers is often cited as adequate way of improving performance in decentralised supply chains, but its effectiveness remains problematic in practice as well as in theory. Benefits of information sharing appear to relatively limited and located mainly with the supplier, not the buyer. This paper investigates if this mixed picture is perhaps due to a number of implicit assumptions. Perhaps customer information sharing is highly beneficial in some settings, and not at all in others. If that is the case, then what are the factors that will tell if information sharing is worthwhile? We introduce a generic system dynamics simulation model of a supplier- buyer supply chain to investigate what happens if these characteristics are changed. Here we find that cyclical demand patterns as well longer lead times make sharing of end customer order more advantageous for both the supplier and the buyer. If lead times for both parties are short, information sharing yields little value to either side. Akkermans, H. A. and A. G. L. Romme (2003). System Dynamics at the Design-Science Interface : Past, Present and Future. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York City, USA, The System Dynamics Society. This paper argues that system dynamics is about design science. Design activities are aimed at changing the world, not just analyzing it. As such, design science is a research perspective that has been second nature to the engineering and medical disciplines but has been problematic for the social sciences. This is because a design focus leads one to look for major real-world problems, where real-world relevance is high but academic rigor problematic. System dynamics seeks to improve the world based upon rigorous analysis of that world. Its design orientation has led to significant business relevance, but has long hampered its academic respectability. These days, both goals appear to have been achieved. However, the academic success of SD has been largely accomplished by positioning SD as part of mainstream science. In the future, this positioning might lead to a reduced design orientation of academic SD researchers and split the field into a practitioners and academics part. Akkermans, H. A. and E. v. Schaik (1998). Measurement of Consensus and Learning and Consensus and Learning on Measurement. 16th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Quebec '98, Quebec City, Canada, System Dynamics Society. Akkermans, H. A. and H. van der Horst (2002). "Managing IT Infrastructure Standardisation in the Networked Manufacturing Firm." International Journal of Production Economics 75(1): 213-228. Akkermans, H. A. and K. van Helden (2002). "Virtuous and Vicious Cycles in ERP Implementation : a Case Study of Interrelations Between Critical Success Factors." European Journal of Information Systems 1: 35-46. Akkermans, H. A. and J. A. M. Vennix (1996). Clients' Opinions on Group Model-Building : An Exploratory Study. 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, Cambridge, Massachusetts, System Dynamics Society. Akkermans, H. A. and J. A. M. Vennix (1997). "Clients' Opinions on Group Model-Building : An Exploratory Study." System Dynamics Review 13(1): 3-31. Group model-building is increasingly used to support strategic decision-making in organizations. However, little is known about its effectiveness, apart from anecdotal evidence and statements by consultants that it works. This article reports on an assessment study of six group model-building projects. Since few tested theories are available, case studies and a qualitative research approach were used to shed more light on the effectiveness of group model-building porjects in real organizations working on real strategic problems. The results show that a number of hypotheses known from experience or textbook theory were 'confirmed', while others were only partially confirmed or should be rejected on the basis of the six cases investigated. Akkermans, H. A., J. A. M. Vennix, et al. (1993). Participative Modelling to Facilitate Organizational Change: A Case Study. International System Dynamics Conference, Cancun, Mexico, System Dynamics Society. Akkermans, H. A. and K. E. von Oorschot (2005). "Relevance Assumed: A Case Study of Balanced Scorecard Development Using System Dynamics." Journal of the Operational Research Society 56: 931-941. Akkermans, H. A. and C. J. G. M. Vos (2003). "Amplification in Service Supply Chains: An Exploratory Case Study from the Telecom Industry." Production and Operations Management 12(2): 204-223. Akkermans, H. A. and C. J. G. M. Vos (in press, 2003). "Amplification in Service Supply Chains : An Exploratory Case Study from the Telecom Industry." Production and Operations Management. Akkermans, H. A. and G. C. J. M. Vos (1996). "Capturing the Dynamics of Facility Allocation." International Journal of Operations & Production Management 16(11): 57-70. Aksoy, Y. and L. Ferguson (1997). Experiences with the Beer Game. 15th International System Dynamics Conference: "Systems Approach to Learning and Education into the 21st Century", Istanbul, Turkey, Bogazici University Printing Office. Al Etr, T. and K. Wahba (2002). Reengineering the Furniture Industry in Egypt to Help Improve its Export Capability : A System Dynamics View. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. The furniture industry around the world is undergoing a period of rapid globalization. With the rapid globalization of the furniture industry and the competitive pressures of imports, a nation has to find a way to stay competitive. The furniture industry in Egypt experienced a lot of weaknesses and constraints that limited industry growth and hence its exports. Most important are the quality, delivery delays and others that are rooted fundamentally into the current structure of the industry. The objective of the paper is to propose group of policies that might help reengineer the Egyptian furniture industry. As outcomes of the research, the authors have suggested two group of policies based on the scale of the furniture manufacturer using a time framework approach. A system dynamic methodology has been used to conceptualize the dynamics of the furniture industry in Egypt, and hence propose macro solutions to the observed problems by the researchers. Alam, M. S., A. M. Z. Huq, et al. (1990). "An Integrated Rural Energy Model for a Village in Bangladesh." Energy 15(2): 131-139. Alanne, P.-M. P. and A. B. Jambekar (1996). Putting Systems Thinking to Use: A Case Study. 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, Cambridge, Massachusetts, System Dynamics Society. Albertini, T. and D. Born (1977). Assessing Alternatives for Improving Dental Care Through Computer Simulation. 105th Annual Meeting American Public Health Assoc. Albin, P. S. (1987). "Microeconomic Foundations of Cyclical Irregularities or `Chaos'." Mathematical Social Sciences 13(3): 185-214. Albin, S. and N. Lux How to Download Road Maps from the Internet, MIT. Alborzi, M. (2002). Using System Dynamics to Simulate Reliability. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. Alborzi, M. (2006). Implanting Neural Network Elements in System Dynamics Models to Surrogate Rate and Auxiliary Variables. Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. Rate variables and auxiliary variables in System Dynamics models are normally constructed using functional equations and or table functions. To construct functions, however, it is imperative to know the underlying relation between the independent variables and the dependent variable. This we know is not always an easy task. Indeed, in many differentially non-linear or chaotic situations this may be totally impossible. One may have to resort to less accurate representations if constrained to write relations as equations or tables. Neural Networks has been deployed in many fields to capture the underlying structural relations between variables in such situations through training schemes. When trained, Neural Networks may achieve generalization capabilities though literarily as black boxes. As Neural Networks models when trained can work online like a function, they can be easily implanted within System Dynamics models to compute rates or auxiliary variables. The idea in this article is, in situations were it is not possible or it is considerably difficult to construct explicit functions or tables, to deploy Neural Networks to surrogate fuctions. Neural Network models, here called elements, can be trained on actual data to capture the underlying functional relationships between input output variables and implanted as rates or auxiliary variables to carry out computation on line. Albrechtsen, L., J. E. Fa, et al. (2004). Making Bushmeat Hunting Sustainable : Economic Incentives or Draconian Measures? 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. Central African peoples have been and still are very dependent on the natural resources they collect from the forest. One of these resources is wild meat (bushmeat), which is hunted in large quantities. Offtake of several species are currently higher than their reproduction rate. In the long run, this will become a conservation crisis on the one hand with the possible extinction of several endemic species, while on the other hand the survival and quality of life of the people dependent on these resources are jeopardized. A dynamic programming model is developed to introduce a method to show explicitly the impact of different policies on the animal population dynamics, the effectiveness of bushmeat hunting, price of bushmeat in the market, and the availability of alternative work opportunities for the hunters. The paper concludes with the simulation of three different policy recommendations for managing bushmeat trade. The model and its simulation show an interesting perspective of the complexity of the wild meat extraction issue. No one single policy will be able to alter the current pattern of unsustainable use – only a combination of policies and other measures will have a chance of succeeding with the conservation of the Central African fauna. Aleem, B. E. A. A. and D. M. Rasmy (2002). The War on Terrorism : Conditions for Success and Failure. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. Though terrorism has been a problem for decades, now it has developed both in size and sophistication to a terrifying extent. The 11th of September attacks on various targets in the U.S.A. are living evidence of this. These radical developments raise serious questions about the effectiveness of the counterterrorism scenarios used until the 11th of September. This simulation-based study inspects the effectiveness of the American reaction to the 11th of September events. The model simulates the war from its beginning till the elapse of two months, a period in which major military operations took place. The model shows the behavior of the Americans during the war as well as various behaviors including those of the terrorists, western media coverage and the Arab and Islamic world. Analysis of the model reveals the reasons why the war has failed in achieving some of its major goals and suggests a more effective strategy. Alekseeva, E. I. and V. M. Kirzhner (1994). "Migration on Networks and its Stability Consequences." System Dynamics Review 10(1): 63-85. Alessandri, A. (2002). System Dynamics and Applications of Optimization. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. From the fifties, numerous optimization methods have been proposed and have increasingly obtained successes so as to become an essential component of support decision systems in many areas, including, among others, economy, control, and telecommunication. Many numerical packages for optimization are available and have reached a wide diffusion in all the scientific communities. This context has suggested to focus on the role of optimization in system dynamics. Optimization in system dynamics is used for two main purposes, i.e., model identification and policy gauging. Optimization allows one to deal with difficult problems for which exact analytical solutions are hard to find for theoretical and practical reasons. In this prospect, the session aims at bringing together different experiences gained in facing some of these problems regarding system dynamics' applications. Alessandri, A., C. Cervllera, et al. (2002). Optimal Neural Feedback Control for Carbon Tax Policy Gauging in Transportation. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. The effects of carbon emissions have been the objective of an investigation that was based on the model of the nation-wide transportation system with railway, waterway, and roadway. The dynamics of such a complex phenomenon depends on a set of control variables (i.e., the percentage of carbon tax on the fuel cost, the operational cost coverages, and growth rates of the various transportation modes) that can be chosen in a suitable way so as to minimize a given cost function (e.g., carbon emissions, public and private costs, fuel consumption, etc.). This problem has been addressed by searching for a feedback control law that can be approximated by means of the combination of both Dynamic Programming and neural networks. Preliminary simulation results with the afore-mentioned model are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Alessi, S. M. (2000). "Designing Educational Support in System-Dynamics-Based Interactive Leraning Environments." Simulation and Gaming 31(2): 178-196. Alessi, S. M. (2000). "Symposium Issue: System Dynamics and Interactive Learning Environments, Part 1 - Designing Educational Support in System-Dynamics-Based Interactive Learning Environments." Simulation & gaming 31(2): 178. Alessi, S. M. (2002). Model Transparency in Educational System Dynamics. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. Model transparency is increasingly identified as a positive or even necessary characteristic of system-dynamics-based learning environments, where model transparency is usually identified as providing modified causal-loop diagrams, equations, or verbal descriptions of a model. The theses of this presentation are: (1) Model transparency may be beneficial for some educational goals and conditions, but model opacity may be beneficial for others. (2) Model transparency is a continuum (from transparent to opaque) and is multidimensional (for different aspects of a model, such as its variables, stock-flow combinations, and cause-effect relationships). (3) There are many methods of providing information about a model, and these too will depend on the goals and other characteristics of a learning environment. Rather than seeking to prove that model transparency is valuable, system dynamics researchers should be elaborating on how goals and other conditions determine optimal levels and methods of transparency. Alexander, W. (1996). Efficiency in Sustainability - The Efficient Life Styles of Kerala. 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, Cambridge, Massachusetts, System Dynamics Society. Alexandre, C. (1976). Contribution à une Modélization de la Croissance du Système Urbain Français (1941-1975), Université de Toulouse le Mirail. Alf, H. A. (1981). "Creative system dynamics: A post-Newtonian model of psychology." Creative Child & Adult Quarterly 6(4): 234-251. Alfeld, L. E. (1974). Urban Dynamics and Its Critics. Readings in Urban Dynamics. N. J. Mass. Cambridge MA, Productivity Press. 1: 115-120. Alfeld, L. E. (1975). Urban Dynamics Applied to an Old Industrial City. Readings in Urban Dynamics. W. W. Schroeder, III, R. E. Sweeney and L. E. Alfeld. Cambridge MA, Productivity Press. 2: 203-218. Alfeld, L. E. (1996). Dynamic Simulation of Rural Social and Economic Interaction. 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, Cambridge, Massachusetts, System Dynamics Society. Alfeld, L. E., R. E. Ellis, et al. (1997). Dynamics of Aircraft Aging (In-house paper). Bethesda, MD, Decision Dynamics, Inc: 18. Extending the life of aging aircraft depends upon many tradeoffs among cost, performance and economic variables. Computer simulation models offer one means to quantify some of the tradeoffs and to support decision-making. This paper describes one such model, called Fleetsight(TM) Decision Dynamics, Inc. (DDI) is developing FleetSight(TM) for the United States Air Force (USAF) ASCIXRSM under the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Program. DDI and Air Mobility Command (AMC) are working together to apply FleetSightTM to three USAF aging aircraft programs. the KC-l 35, the C-S and the C-I 30. Fleetsight(TM) provides a long-term, strategic-level view of the dynamics of aircraft aging. FleetSightTM simulates the dynamic behavior of an aging air fleet over a 20 to 40-year period, tracking the gradual deterioration in systems and components as they succumb to the forces of aging, technological obsolescence and operational stresses. Aging may be slowed, or even temporarily reversed, through aggressive maintenance and upgrade programs. Eventually, however, increasing unscheduled maintenance problems ground a larger fraction of the fleet, undercutting mission performance. Within the limits set by the long-term dynamic behavior of the system, Fleetsight(TM) allows program users to define and test alternative "what-if?" scenarios. Such "what-if?" scenarios trace the consequences among competing policy options, quantify the impact of specific decisions, and test the sensitivity of system response to different parameter assumptions. Fleetsight(TM) offers an innovative simulation tool for designing long-term resource allocation strategies to support aging aircraft fleets. The paper opens with a description of the causal relationships within the model, showing how the relationships interlink to form a rich feedback structure. The modeling methodology, called system dynamics, simulates the dynamic behavior of the system as each element interacts with the others. The primary driver underlying system behavior is the aging process, represented in the model by changes in the average distribution of aircraft and components along a spectrum from new to old. Simulations of the model reveal its baseline behavior and demonstrate how "what-if?" scenarios may be used to quantify the impact of alternative policy options. After presenting the model as a single entity, the paper then describes the model's hierarchical structure, which can represent aircraft and components to deeper levels of detail so as to model the spares cycle. A discussion of the dynamic match between requirements and resources shows how scheduled and unscheduled maintenance combine to generate increasing workloads over time. Finally, the paper offers a brief overview of the Fleetsight(TM) graphic user interface. Alfeld, L. E. and A. K. Graham (1976). Introduction to Urban Dynamics. Cambridge MA, Productivity Press. Alfeld, L. E. and D. L. Meadows (1972). The Dynamics of Urban Revival. Systems Approach and the City. M. D. Mesarovic and A. Reisman, American Elsevier Inc. Alfeld, L. E. and D. L. Meadows (1974). A Systems Approach to Urban Revival. Readings in Urban Dynamics. N. J. Mass. Cambridge MA, Productivity Press. 1: 41-56. Alfeld, L. E. and R. M. Sholtes (1996). The Industrial Base Analysis Model (IBAM). 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, Cambridge, Massachusetts, System Dynamics Society. Ali, T. A. and K. Wahba (2005). Assessment of Egyptian Software Export Capabilities Using a System Dynamics Approach. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. The purpose of this research was to assess the Egyptian software industry using a Systems Dynamics approach based on the Software Export Success Factors Model developed by Heeks and Nicholson, 2002. A CLD was prepared as a step towards building a model to simulate the expected effect of key software-related infrastructure variables on the Egyptian software export revenue. Simulations of software export industry over a period of 10 years point to the following: (1) Injecting an additional 30% financial resources resulted in an increase of 8.4% in software export revenue and 2.1% in job opportunities with respect to the reference mode, (2) Improving IT staff productivity by 42%, and delivered software quality by 10%, with a decrease in resistance to change of 20% led to an increase of 68.7% in software export revenue and of 12.9% in job opportunities with respect to the reference mode, (3) Enhancing R&D by 50% and IT staff innovation contribution by 10% resulted in an increase of 14.4% in software export revenue and 3% in job opportunities with respect to the reference mode, and (4) Improving the software export promotion efficiency by 14% and quality of delivered software by 10% led to an increase of 38.7% in software export revenue and 8% in job opportunities with respect to the reference mode. Alkemper, J. and D. Mango (2005). Simulation of the Reinsurance Market using Agent-Based Modeling. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. Prices in the Property and Casualty Reinsurance market are known to undergo significant fluctuations. In order to understand the reasons for these fluctuations a simulation model was built that replicates relevant features of the reinsurance market: a limited number of market participants are competing, low product differentiation, volume constraints for each market participant and discrete volume decisions based on estimated rather than actual market prices. Despite a number of simplifications the model captures the current market dynamics. In a further development the model was made interactive allowing actual “players” to take the role of the reinsurance companies and make the individual volume decisions based on current financials and the market history. The model was built using agent based instead of system dynamics modeling techniques particularly to simplify implementation of critical discrete events and to create a simple to understand structure. We will discuss the model, the trade-offs between the Agent-based and System-dynamics approach as they applied to this model and share some experience in communicating the model structure with the business owners. Allard, B. (1989). La Dynamique des Systèmes à l'Aerospatiale - Division Helicopteres Bilan d'une integration reussie. Congrès Europeen de Systemique, Lausanne. Allaway, A. W. and G. D'Sousa (1994). Feedback and Control in a Product Portfolio Management Model. 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, Sterling, Scotland, System Dynamics Society. Allen, J. C. (1975). "Mathematical Models of Spaces: Interactions in Time and Spce." The Amercian Naturalist 109(967). Allen, K. E. (1990). "Making Sense Out of Chaos: Leading and Living in Dynamic Systems." Campus Activities Programming 23(1): 56-58, 60-62. Allen, P. M. (1988). "Dynamic models of evolving systems." System Dynamics Review 4(1-2): 109-130. Allen, P. M. (1997). Cities and Regions as Self-Organizing Systems : Models of Complexity. Amsterdam, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers. Allen, P. M. and M. Sanglier (1979). Order by Fluctuation and the Urban System. 5èmes Journées Dynamique des Systèmes de l'AFCET, Université de l'Etat de Mons. Allen, R. (1977). Towards A Primary Lifestyle. Alternatives to Growth-I: A Search for Sustainable Futures. D. L. Meadows. Cambridge MA, Ballinger Publishing Co. Allen, R. D. G. (1967). Macro-Economic Theory: a Mathematical Treatment, Macmillan. Allenstein, B. M. and D. E. Probert The Development of a Colour Graphics Interface for a Corporate Model of the British Telecommunications Business. 7th Conference of the Canadian Man-Computer Communications Society, Waterloo, Ontario. Allenstein, B. M. and D. E. Probert (1980). A Strategic Control Module for a Corporate Model of the British Telecommunications Business. Forecasting Public Utilities. O. A. Anderson, North Holland Press. Allenstein, B. M. and D. E. Probert (1982). The Integration of Business Graphics and Videotext for Corporate Planning: A Case Study. Business Graphics, State of the Art Report, Pergamon Infotech Ltd. Allers, R., R. Johnson, et al. (1998). Group Model Building to Support Welfare Reform Part II : Dutchess County. 16th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Quebec '98, Quebec City, Canada, System Dyanmics Society. Alm, I. (1994). Managerial Conflicts in Social Systems: The Ignored Significance of Ethics and Values. 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, Sterling, Scotland, System Dynamics Society. Alm, I. (1999). The Art of Developing Management Support: Demands on Theoretic and Technologic Synergy. 17th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society and 5th Australian & New Zealand Systems Conference, Wellington, New Zealand, The System Dynamics Society. Al'muhamedov, M. I. (1988). Stability & Dynamic Systems, N/A. Alonso, J. C., J. A. Alonso, et al. (1986). Modeling the Common Crane (Grus grus) Population Wintering in Iberia. System Dynamics: On the Move. The 1986 International Conference of the Systems Dynamics Society, Sevilla, Spain, International System Dynamics Society. Alonso Magdaleno, M. I. (2002). Administrative Policies and MIR Vacancies : Impact on the Spanish Health System. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. This work shows the impact over the Spanish health system of two policies that have been used, and still are used, in the allocation of MIR vacancies. These policies are the allocation of MIR vacancies according to the number of graduates and, the allocation MIR vacancies according to the historical “bag” of graduates without specialty. This comparison is based on the evolution of the historical “bag” of graduates without specialty. It is observed that this last policy benefits more to the community than the previous one. Both policies harm the evolution of the specialized doctors’ “bag,” although the allocations according to the historical “bag” harm it even more. By means of the simulation the interrelation is observed that exists among both “bags” (the improvement of one of them implies harm to the other one). The adoption of these proposals spreads to improve the situation of the medical community in the short term but it harms it in the long term. Alonso Magdaleno, M. I. (2002). Dynamic Analysis of Some Proposals for the Management of the Number of Physicians in Spain. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. In this work the impact of some proposals formulated by several groups involved on the Spanish health system is analyzed. The purpose of these proposals is to solve the current imbalance problem among supply and demand of physicians. In this study, the impact over the Spanish health system of every proposed measure is shown; as well as its comparison with the evolution of the system according to the allocation policies that are currently used. According to the obtained results it is concluded that the proposal that offers better results in the long term is the one carried out by the Spanish Society of Primary Care Medicine. Nevertheless, none of them is appropriate to eliminate or to reduce the outlined problem, although they can improve certain collectives or groups in certain moments. Alonso Magdaleno, M. I. (2002). Elaboration of a Model for the Management of the Number of Specialized Doctors in the Spanish Health System. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. The purpose of this study is to analyze the existence of an important imbalance between supply and demand of specialized doctors in the Spanish health system. The specific sequence followed in the supply of MIR vacancies, along the eighties and nineties, has generated this problem. The way of allocation of MIR vacancies, along the time, has created many problems. This fact has led the Spanish health system toward a situation of uncertainty and growing inefficiency. This work’s objective is the elaboration of a model whose purpose is to identify the causes or origins of those imbalances, so that alternative policies are proposed and to learn of the system behavior rather than the realization of future forecasts. In this way, the factors that seem to interact generating the observed symptoms are identified. Lastly, the main feedback loops are shown and the causal diagram of departure is elaborated. Alpasian, A. K., M. Sayar, et al. (1997). Local Forecasting of Chaotic Time Series. 15th International System Dynamics Conference: "Systems Approach to Learning and Education into the 21st Century", Istanbul, Turkey, Bogazici University Printing Office. Al-Qatawneh, L. K., K. Hafeez, et al. (2003). Health Care Supply Chain Dynamics : Systems Design of an American Health Care Provider. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York City, USA, The System Dynamics Society. Health care organizations supply chains are more problematic to manage compared to its industrial counterparts. Moreover, health care organizations have very little control over the demand of supplies. In this paper we propose an integrated system dynamics framework for analyzing and modeling health care logistics chain. An American health care provider is used as an example to demonstrate the implementation of various stages of our framework. Based on the systems analyses, causal relationships were developed and an EOQ based computer simulation model was built and tested. The analyses of the results revealed that the existing “push” type inventory control policies are not suitable for the type of demand that is usually experienced by the health care systems. The authors further suggest that in the health care sector, inventory management should be based on ranking items in terms of “value” and “criticality” rather “frequency of use” to develop appropriate stocking policy. Al-Qirem, R., A. O. Moscardini, et al. (2005). The Use Of System Dynamics Models To Evaluate The Credit-Worthiness Of Firms. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. Evaluating new bank loans has been considered as one of the main dilemmas that banks managers have to deal with in order to reduce the probability of default. The lending process is a series of activities involving two main parties whose association ranges from the loan application to the successful or unsuccessful repayment of the loan. This paper describes the construction of a flight simulator which uses the ideas of System Dynamics and the Viable Systems Methodology. The Decision Support Tool thus formed uses systemic approaches to measure a firm’s performance and can provide a risk assessment in the sense of evaluating performance under different (what- if) scenarios. The credit worthiness from this model can then be evaluated against the usual estimate based only on financial ratios. Altamirano, M., J. Aijo, et al. (2007). A Qualitative Analysis of Periodic Maintenance of Roads Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. Many transportation agencies are experimenting with innovative contractual arrangements for the procurement of construction, maintenance and operation of roads. They are changing from traditional contracts that prescribe the kind of work that need to be done in a specific section of the network, to more flexible contracts, increasing the contractors freedom to its maximum level, where the contractor itself decide which section, when and what kind of work he will perform, with the only condition of keeping a certain level of performance for a whole road network. Advanced computer models have been developed that estimate what would be the resulting road condition for given investment decisions and maintenance actions. Nevertheless it remains uncertain if contractors are given the freedom: What trade-offs would they make? Will road quality decrease? Will road agencies be able to monitor or control contractors? Before all these choices and freedom are transferred to the private sector, it is urgent to develop a clear view of the most important trade-offs that are now already made by the public authority. In order to contribute to the building of this understanding this paper explores the issue of road condition and some of the most the relevant and conflicting aspects of it. Altamirano, M. A. (2006). Modeling the Evolution of National Road Procurement Strategies. Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. Many transportation agencies have discovered that traditional highway contract administration procedures and project delivery methods do not meet current demands. In response, they are turning to alternative contracting. Four trends are perceived in road management. First, with respect to project delivery, more and more projects are contracted for the whole life cycle of the road. Second, contractors are given increasingly more freedom or design space, as the indicators used for monitoring their work become less operational and more performance based. Third, governments follow a dual track strategy; managing a portfolio of directly and indirectly financed projects; dependent on the project characteristics. Fourth, contracts are granted for longer term. These innovative forms of contracting are expected to yield more flexibility in the road sector; more innovation, higher performance and consequently lower costs while keeping up service levels on public values. This paper presents how by using a combination of institutional economics theory and engineering design theory, our aim is to build a systems dynamics model that can capture the institutional context and is able to indicate what contracting practices are likely to occur and which ones are likely to succeed in view of the meeting the public values and demands. Altamirano, M. A. and C. E. van Daalen (2004). A System Dynamics Model of Primary and Secondary Education in Nicaragua. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. A System Dynamics model of primary and secondary education in Nicaragua has been developed to assist the National Ministry of Education in analysing the system of schooling and investigating the impacts of different possible policy decisions. The model shows that without a change in policy there will only be a small increase in the percentage of primary and high school coverage and that the number of illiterate people will more than double over a period of twenty years. The consequences of various policies have been investigated using the model. These policies include implementing literacy programs and introducing a program in which families in extreme poverty receive a subsidy. Preliminary results show that by combining these two policies, an effect on school coverage as well as on the number of illiterate people can be achieved. Altinel, I. K. and E. Ulas (1996). "Simulation Modelling for Emergency Bed Requirement Planning." Annals of Operational Research 67: 183-210. Alvarez, C. and A. F. A. Sierra (2003). A Dynamic Approach to Bank Credit in Light of Economic Development. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York City, USA, The System Dynamics Society. It is really difficult that the managers can make in front of the necessity of investment of their companies appealing so alone to the own funds, that is to say, to the self-financing. The global competitiveness doesn't wait, neither gives truce, it is so they have to appeal to some financing form, either through a bank credit or an emission of holding and values in the stock exchange. The present investigation tries to explain the dynamic behavior between the productive sector and the financial sector, it presents the dynamic form as it is that multiple variables are interrelated, such as the benefits of the companies, the bank deposits, private saving, the interest rate, the retirement of savings, so that through the bank credit they contribute in the economic development of a country like Peru. Alvarez de Toledo Saavedra, P., F. N. Hernández, et al. (2002). Autoregressive Models and System Dynamics : A Case Study for the Labor Market in Spain. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. Autoregressive (AR) models explain, partially at least, the values of a variable or set of variables, based on the past values of this variable or set of variables. It has been found that this kind of simple model, with a small number of variables and parameters, can seriously compete, in terms of its prediction capabilities, with the large macroeconomic models with hundreds of variables and parameters developed during the fifties and sixties. This paper tries to show how system dynamics models may easily incorporate fundamental elements of AR models. As an illustration, we present a case study from the labor market in Spain. We explain the fundamentals of the problem and the formulation of the corresponding AR model. Finally, we develop the model within the framework of system dynamics. We believe this work is a good example of how system dynamics and econometric models can be considered as complementary analysis tools to deal effectively with complex problems Alvarez Sierra, A. F. (2006). Application of the Dynamics of Systems in Alternative of Solution of the Garbage in the City of Huancayo. Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. The city of Huancayo is located in the center of the Peru, with a problem in common, of the different municipalities that are in the whole journey of the river Mantaro, as treating the solid waste. Throw organic waste, inorganic to the river Mantaro; it is not a good solution for the Municipal administrations, because it is contaminated seriously to river, for the great quantity of waste that hurtles daily, besides already to be contaminated by the pollutants that are thrown by the center metallurgist of the Oroya. The sanitary filler was not a good alternative to solve this problem; Which is the best solution? is it a question that they cannot respond, the Municipalities that are located in the City of Huancayo; the constant disagreements among their administrators what they achieve is to continue prolonging the contamination of the rivers and of the environment. The present study has the purpose of giving to know each one of the agents involved inside of this problem and to provide alternative that satisfy to the affected parts. Alvarez Sierra, C. and A. Alvarez Sierra (2002). Coordination Between Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy by Means of a Model of Dynamic Simulation. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. The end of all economic models is to elevate the level of life. Each government tries to find appropriate measures to improve the national economy, without being able to succeed because they refuse to understand that the whole economy is a system with subsystems that interact the one with the other. The current government is promulgating laws after a superficial debate in the congress of the republic or by means of ordinances of urgency. Such laws are experiments that use the country like a laboratory. In the investigation presented, fiscal politics and monetary politics are analyzed by means of a model of dynamic simulation. Effects are caused in multiple social variables and in the economic growth of the country. It is demonstrated that the decisions adopted by the current administration don't favor a real economic growth of the country. Alvarez Sierra, C. and A. F. Alvarez Sierra (2005). Application of the Dynamics of Systems as an Alternative Solution to the Garbage in the Valley of the Mantaro. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. The valley of the Mantaro embraces great part of three counties of the department of Junín (Huancayo, Concepción, Jauja), with a problem in common, of the different municipalities that are in the whole journey of the river Mantaro, as treating the solid waste. Throw organic waste, inorganic to the river Mantaro; it is not a good solution for the Municipal administrations, because it is contaminated seriously to river, for the great quantity of waste that hurtles daily, besides already to be contaminated by the pollutants that are thrown by the center metallurgist of the Oroya. The sanitary filler was not a good alternative to solve this problem; Which is the best solution?, is it a question that they cannot respond, the Municipalities that are located in the valley of the Mantaro; the constant disagreements among their adminstrators what they achieve is to continue prolonging the contamination of the rivers and of the environment. Alvarez Sierra, C. and A. F. Alvarez Sierra (2005). Model Dynamic of Evaluation of the Environmental Impact of the Reforestation. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. The integral handling of the basins in semi-arid areas implies to face many problems. Among them: decrease of the vegetable covering, inadequate use of the earth on the part of the farmers, with the rising erosion processes and transport of silts. On the other hand, in many places of the Andean area, the population's increase and their growing necessities have caused a process of alarming environmental degradation. The handling of trees and bushes in the properties of the peasants are one of the key components of the handling of basins, mainly in semi-arid areas, where the few but intense precipitation events can cause severe damages in the areas of influence of the valleys. The program of reforestation of the PRONAMACHS this at the moment being executed but up to where it will contribute to solve these problems. To be able to get a sustained growth of the community of the Mariac Tingo, we need to know like it will be the long term environmental impact and which will be the economic benefits that it achieved the planned reforestation and systemic. Alwani, M. J. (1980). The Management of a Commercial Bank's Funds: A System Dynamics Study, University of Bradford. Alwani, M. J. (1989). The Planning, and Controlling of Infantry and Artillery Joint Combat Operation. Computer-Based Management of Complex Systems: International System Dynamics Conference, Stuttgart, International System Dynamics Society. Alwani, M. J., E. F. Wolstenholme, et al. (1988). The Design and Testing of Plans at Government Level in Kuwait. Proceedings of the 1988 International Conference of the Systems Dynamics Society, La Jolla, California, International System Dynamics Society. Aly Abdel-Aleem, B. E. and D. M. Rasmy (2003). The Impact of E-Learning on the Quality of Education in Egyptian Universities. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York City, USA, The System Dynamics Society. Amartey, E. (2001). The Impact of Technological Innovation, Transfer and Diffusion in Extended Enterprise in Developing Economies. The 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Atlanta, Georgia, System Dynamics Society. This paper proposes a model for understanding the issues related to innovation and technology transfer in developing economies. Technology innovation and diffusion theories (Romer, 1990; Schumpeter, 1961; Segerstrom, 1991; Grossman, 1993) raised important issues related economic growth in a world with limited technology and technology transfer capacity. However these theories aggregate both developing and industrialised countries into more model to represent the real issue. In the real world, developing and industrialised economies face different technology innovation, transfer and diffusion limitations and deal with different problems arising from such limits (Mashayeki, 1990). This paper presents initial findings of the research on problems of technology innovation, transfer and diffusion of extended enterprise in developing economies (Homer, 1983; Sahrif and Kabir, 1976). While many researchers have propounded technology innovation and technology transfer theories, none of the theories proposed specifically examine problems in developing economies (Mahajan and Peterson,1985). The framework proposed for understanding technology transfer and diffusion addresses both the adoption and the changing rate of evolving product-based technology and also accounts for endogenous factors that cause actual and perceived changes. As part of future work, the research aims to test and validate the model-based theory in developing economies, specifically, examining the impact of extended enterprise on technological innovation, transfer and diffusion. Although the paper undoubtedly still has limitations, I have suggested that the model might be useful in examining the impact on extended enterprise in the presence of new competitive technology transfer and technology diffusion in a developing country. Ambali, J. P. and K. Saeed (1986). "Role of Credit in a Rural Economy: The Case of Thailand." System Dynamics Rev. 2(2): 126-137. Ambali, J. P. and K. Saeed (1986). "The role of credit in a rural economy: the case of Thailand." System Dynamics Review 2(2): 126-137. Ambrosio, J. and T. Alvarez (1991). "Introduction to the methodology of computer simulation in educational environments." Novatica 17(90): 44-50. Amelkin, S. and A. Tsirlin (2001). "Optimal Choice of Prices and Flows in a Complex Open Industrial System." Open Systems & Information Dynamics 8(2): 169-181 (13 pages). Amend, J. F. (1997). Systems Thinking, Professional Education and Rational Transitions in Curriculum. 15th International System Dynamics Conference: "Systems Approach to Learning and Education into the 21st Century", Istanbul, Turkey, Bogazici University Printing Office. Amin, H. and K. Wahba (2003). Healthcare Performance Management Model : A System Dynamics Approach. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New York City, USA, The System Dynamics Society. Healthcare centers all over the world, and especially in the Middle East, face a situation of increasing revenues at a decreasing rate, while margins of profit are decreasing markedly. In an attempt to control expenses, hospital managements have tended to respond to this situation by introducing across-the-board cost-cutting policies on the side of the hospital's employees. In addition, management has had a tendency to over-use 'punishment of employees' and increased 'work-pressure' as their primary response to performance short-falls. In this study, the resultant drop in employee motivation and its negative effect on 'profit levels' will be shown. This study is trial to articulate, the 'Dynamics' between management policies, employee motivation, patient satisfaction, and revenues and expenses (profits). It is a modeling of the inter-relationships between these variables, as they exist today, in most Egyptian hospital environments. Amlin, J. S. (1979). Economic and Technical Determinants of Small-Scale Hydropower Development in New England, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College. Amlin, J. S. (1982). Sensitivity Analysis of Large Computer Models. Forecasting Demand and Energy Requirement Seminars, U. of Wisconsin, Control Data Corporation. Amlin, J. S. and L. Clemens (1983). A Practical Approach to Sensitivity Analysis, National Regulatory Research Inst. Amlin, J. S., E. H. Hall, et al. (1981). Ohio Waste Wood for Energy, Battelle-Columbus Laboratories. Amlin, J. S. and G. E. Juras (1980). ELFOR, A Model for Long-Range Forecasting of Electric Energy (KWH) and Demand (KW) and for Load Management Simulation, Battelle-Columbus Laboratories. Amlin, J. S. and P. H. Kirshen (1981). "Computer Model for Small-Scale Hydropower Policy Analysis." J. of the Water Resources Planning and Management Division, ACSE 107(1). Amlin, J. S., E. Peters, et al. (1979). Factors Hindering the Development of Small-Scale Municipal Hydropower: A Case Study of the Black River Project in Springfield, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College. Ammentorp, W. and K. Baltes (1977). "Fund Raising Dynamics." Fund Raising Management(Fall). Ammentorp, W. and P. Gunderson (1985). Catastrophe Theory and Public Policy: The Dynamics of Provider Behavior in the Nursing Home Industry. Proceedings of the 1985 International Conference of the Systems Dynamics Society, Keystone, Colorado, International System Dynamics Society. Ammentorp, W., P. Gunderson, et al. (1976). "A Dynamic Simulation Model of the Articulation Between A Regional Occupational Training System and an Occupational Work Force." Regional Science Perspectives 6: 28-39. Ammentorp, W. and J. Morris (1977). "Dynamic Analysis: Extending Cost-Benefit Studies." Educational Research Qtrly.(Summer). Amsyari, F. (1991). Dynamic Modeling for Development of Java Island Ecosystem. System Dynamics ‘91: Proceedings of the 1991 International Systems Dynamics Conference, Bangkok, International System Dynamics Society. Amsyari, F. (1992). Insertion of Input-Output Model into System Dynamics Approach. Proceedings of the 1992 International System Dynamics Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Utrecht, the Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. An, L. (2006). Using System Dynamics Modeling for Conditioning Process in Supply Chain. Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, The System Dynamics Society. Conditioning is one of the methods used to address imbalances between supply and demand in supply chains. Under periodic review policy, when the imbalance is beyond certain threshold at conditioning time, some proactive measures could be taken at either demand or supply side or both. For instance, demand could be influenced through pricing (promotion); excessive building blocks could be consumed through component substitution; additional supply could be arranged through flexible contracts. We use System Dynamics to model different conditioning actions. Specifically, corresponding to change of situation, we adopt time period array to realize optimal control along timeline. Some simulation examples are presented to illustrate gradual correction of imbalance situation under different conditioning actions. An, L. and Y. Lee (2007). Modeling Dynamics of Workforce Absenteeism and Effectiveness of Mitigation Actions During Pandemics Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. A pandemic is likely to occur in the near future, and it could cause significant disruptions in society creating deaths, despair, fear, and monetary cost, among other losses. Firms would also be negatively affected by a pandemic through loss of revenue, profit, employees, and even through a reduction in the value of the business itself. Especially for service-intensive businesses, employee absenteeism is a key factor that impacts firms when a pandemic occurs, hampering various business operations. In this paper, we describe a system dynamics model that describes dynamics of workforce absenteeism resulting from a pandemic, and also effectiveness of corporate mitigation actions. An, L. and B. Ramachandran (2005). System Dynamics Model to Understand Demand-Conditioning Dynamics in Supply Chains. Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, The System Dynamics Society. Demand Conditioning is one of the methods used to address imbalances between supply and demand in supply chains. This requires the manufacturer to adjust the demand plan to respond to supply issues. The supply chain has several sources of delays and uncertainties such as lead times at different stages, forecast error, supply yield variability etc. that could potentially trigger or influence the conditioning process. In this paper, we examine dynamical effects in the conditioning process to study potential instabilities. We developed a Systems Dynamics model of a PC manufacturing supply chain to examine instabilities in the supply chain. This model provides insight on supply chain risks and error propagation due to unsynchronized execution. We also use the model to study the effect of different countermeasures to stabilize the supply chain. An, S., K. Uhm, et al. (2002). System Dynamics Model for Forecasting Demand of Each Automobile Type in the Korean Automobile Market. Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, The System Dynamics Society. A system dynamics model is formulated to forecast the automobile demand in Korea. Until the present, managers have used rule-of-thumb methods based on salespersons’ experience and past sales performances. However, as the Korean auto market has changed from a supply leading market into a demand leading market, managers need more logical tools. There have been also arguments that a pure statistical model is too robust and there is no room to incorporate the rich experiences of salespersons nor managers. The newly developed system dynamics model is an experiment to combine the statistical method and the system dynamics method. The model classifies automobiles into 11 types, and the demand is forecasted based upon the top-down approach spiced up with the bottom-up approach. The main structure of the model includes stocks and rates, a regression model, and many calibration models. Vensim DSS is used for the system dynamics model and the calibrations, and Stata is used for the regression model. Anason, D. J., CAPT, USAF (1999). Exploring the Management of Outsourcing and the Determination of Civil Engineering Minimum Manning Numbers in Order to Optimize Air Force Benefits. Wright-Patterson AFB, OH. (AFIT ID: AFIT/GEE/ENV/99M-01). Air Force Institute of Technology. This thesis investigates the relationship between peacetime and wartime tasks for Air Force Civil Engineering career fields in regard to outsourcing. Relevant literature in civilian sector outsourcing techniques is then studied to determine how they decide on what to outsource and what to keep insourced. Peacetime tasks performed by individual career fields are correlated with the wartime tasks to determine if there is any valuable wartime training gained from the completion of peacetime work orders. Several interviews were completed with Air Force Civil Engineer readiness experts to evaluate an importance factor for each career field wartime mission. This importance factor and the wartime correlation is then coded into a mathematical system dynamics model. This model enumerates different decision-maker profiles of outsourcing motivation in order to predict long term trends of manning authorizations given the wartime correlation and importance factors. Different specific dynamic cases are then discussed and possible predictors for optimization are suggested. Andersen, D., J. Morecroft, et al. (2007). How the System Dynamics Society Came to Be: A Collective Memoir Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. In this paper several of the early workers in the field of system dynamics tell both a consensus story of how the System Dynamics Society came into being over 25 years ago and some of the early history of the Society itself. Several slightly different versions of this story have been told over the past several years and we thought it would be fun to involve a broader group in this kind of modified oral history project. The paper is based on a series of separate recollections that have been posted in full on the web at http://www.systemdynamics.org/history/oral_history.htm Andersen, D., J. Morecroft, et al. (2007). "How the System Dynamics Society came to be: a collective memoir." System Dynamics Review 23(2-3): 219-227. In this paper several of the early workers in the field of system dynamics tell some of the history of the Society itself. Several slightly different versions of this story have been told over the past several years and we thought it would be interesting to involve a broader group in this kind of modified oral history project. The paper is based on a series of separate written recollections that have been posted in full on the web at http://www.systemdynamics.org/history/oral_history.htm. Andersen, D., G. Richardson, et al. (2007). Two Group Model Building Scripts that Integrate Systems Thinking into Strategy Workshops Facilitated with Group Explore Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston, MA, The System Dynamics Society. Vennix (1996), Andersen et al (1997), Richardson and Andersen (1995), and Andersen and Richardson (1997) have called for a greater sharing of knowledge and experience in group model building (GMB) projects to disseminate innovative practices and to increase the effectiveness of products being delivered to our clients. This poster responds to that call by describing two scripts based on system dynamics group model-building practices that have been used in strategy workshops using Group Explorer. Eden and Ackermann (1998) have developed a workshop-based approach for the rapid development of strategic options working directly with client teams. In its most recent manifestation, this approach uses the Group Explorer software to facilitate rapid mapping, modeling, and analysis of issues, goals, and distinctive competencies into well-integrated business plans, livelihood schemes, and statements of strategic intent (Ackermann and Eden, 2005) Recently, Howick et al (2006) demonstrated how scenarios maps developed in this tradition of strategic analysis and modeling could be usefully integrated with system dynamics models to improve overall impact and value being delivered to client groups. Andersen et al (2006) have presented a curriculum for co-teaching Eden and Ackermann’s (1998) approach to strategy linked to Bryson’s (2004) approach to leadership and strategy development as well as key elements of system dynamics and systems thinking. Andersen, D. F. An Approach to the Analysis of the Military Personnel System. Cambridge, MA, M.I.T. Andersen, D. F. (1970). Possible Applications of Computerized Methods of Decision-Making in Rural New England Towns. Boston, MA. Andersen, D. F. (1976). How Differences in Analytic Paradigms Can Lead to Differences in Policy Conclusions. Intl. Conf. on System Dynamics, Geilo, Norway. Andersen, D. F. (1977). Mathematical Models and Decision Making in Bureaucracies: A Case Story Told From Three Points of View, M. I. T. human resources Andersen, D. F. (1979). System Dynamics and Education. W. A. Shaffer and (editor). Cambridge, MA, Pugh Roberts Associates. Andersen, D. F. (1979). A System Dynamics Simulation of Special Education Reimbursement Policies, SUNY-Albany, Graduate School of Public Affairs. Andersen, D. F. (1980). How Differences in Analytic Paradigms Can Lead to Differences in Policy Conclusions. Elements of the System Dynamics Method. J. Randers. Cambridge MA, Productivity Press: 61-74. Andersen, D. F. (1980). "Using Feedback Simulation to Test Educational Finance Policies." Policy Sciences 12. Andersen, D. F. (1981). "Kalman Filter Estimation of System States Compared to the General Regression Problem." Intl. J. Policy Analysis and Information Systems 5(2). Andersen, D. F. (1981). "A System Dynamic View of the Competing Values Approach to Organizational Life Cycles." Public Productivity Rev. 5(2). Andersen, D. F. (1981). Why Mathematical Models of Public Policy Issues Often Don't Work. System Dynamics Research Conf., Albany, NY, Inst. for Government and Policy Studies, Nelson Rockefeller College for Public Affairs and Policy, SUNY-Albany. Andersen, D. F. (1982). "Book Review : "System Dynamics and the Analysis of Change, B.E. Paulre, editor"." Simulation. Andersen, D. F. (1982). "Developing New Concepts in System Dynamics : A Review of the 7th International Conference at Brussels." Dynamica 8(2). Andersen, D. F. (1982). "Developing New Concepts in System Dynamics: A Review of the 7th Intl. Conference at Brussels." Dynamics 8(2). Andersen, D. F. (1982). "Problems in Estimating the Costs of Special Education in Urban Areas : The New York City Case." Journal of Education Finance 7(4). Andersen, D. F. (1982). "Redefining the Implementation of Special Education Programs in Fiscal Terms." Human Systems Management 2. Andersen, D. F. (1982). "A Review of the 7th Intl. System Dynamics Conf. at Brussels, June 16-18, 1982." Simulation. Andersen, D. F. (1982). "System Dynamics and the Analysis of Change." Simulation. Andersen, D. F. (1982). "Using Feedback Models to Test the Robustness of Statistical Program Evaluation Design." Dynamics 8(2). Andersen, D. F. (1982). "Using Feedback Models to Test the Robustness of Statistical Program Evaluation Designs. (Research Problem)." Dynamica 8(2). Andersen, D. F. (1983). "Disentangling Statistical Artifacts from Hard Conclusions." J. of Policy Analysis and Management 2(2). Andersen, D. F. (1983). "A System Dynamics Approach to School Finance Questions." Simulation 40(6). Andersen, D. F. (1983). "A System Dynamics Model Simulation of Educational Finance Problems." Simulation 40(6). Andersen, D. F. (1983). "A System Dynamics Simulation of Educational Finance Policies." Simulation 40(6). Andersen, D. F. (1984). Formalization as Crisis: A Transition Planning Program for Young Organizations. New Futures: The Challenge of Measuring Corporate Transitions. R. Quinn and J. Kimberly. Homewood IL, Richard D. Irwin, Inc. Andersen, D. F. (1985). Models, Simulation and System Dynamics. The Computer Culture: A Symposium to Explore the Computer's Impact on Society. D. P. Donnelley. Cranbury, NJ, Associated University Presses. Andersen, D. F. (1988). "Chaos in System Dynamics Models." System Dynamics Rev. 4(1-2): 3-13. Andersen, D. F. (1988). "Foreword: Chaos in system dynamics models." System Dynamics Review 4(1-2): 3-13. Andersen, D. F. (1990). "Analyzing who gains and who loses: the case of school finance reform in New York State." System Dynamics Review 6(1): 21-43. Andersen, D. F. (1991). "The Size and Scope of Strategic Planning in State Agencies : The New York Experience." American Review of Public Administration 21(2): 119-137. Andersen, D. F. (2004). "The 2004 Jay Wright Forrester Award : Citation for the Winner: Eric F. Wolstenholme." System Dynamics Review 20(4): 337-340. Andersen, D. F. and D. L. Andersen (1977). Theories of Decision Making : An Annotated Bibliography. Cambridge, MA. Andersen, D. F., D. L. Andersen, et al. (1997). An Approach to Teaching System Thinking in Public Sector Audiences. 15th International System Dynamics Conference: "Systems Approach to Learning and Education into the 21st Century", Istanbul, Turkey, Bogazici University Printing Office. Andersen, D. F., S. Belardo, et al. (1994). "Strategic Information Management : Conceptual Frameworks for the Public Sector." Public Productivity and Management Review XVII(4): 335-353. Andersen, D. F., K. R. Britting, et al. (1975). Dynamic Parameter Sensitivity in Social System Models. Summer Computer Simulation Conference, San Francisco, CA, Simulation Councils, Inc. Andersen, D. F., D. M. Cappelli, et al. (2004). Preliminary System Dynamics Maps of the Insider Cyber-Threat Problem. 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Oxford, England, The System Dynamics Society. Twenty five researchers from eight institutions and a variety of disciplines, viz. computer science, information security, knowledge management, law enforcement, psychology, organization science and system dynamics, found each other February 2004 in the “System Dynamics Modelling for Information Security: An Invitational Group Modeling Workshop” at Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University. The exercise produced preliminary system dynamics models of insider and outsider cyber attacks that motivated five institutions, viz. Syracuse University, TECNUN at University of Navarra, CERT/CC at Carnegie Mellon Univers