6310 Web Page Demo Dozen Waters Center for System Dynamics 2001 July 14 stm file July 5, 2001 Demo Dozen http://www.clexchange.org/dd_msst/ John Heinbokel (heinboke@trinityvt.edu or jhein@adelphia.net) or P. Jeffrey Potash (jpotash@trinityvt.edu or jpotash@adelphia.net) 1 Book 1967 The Man Made World, Teacher's Manual Washington, D.C. Commission on Engineering Education 399 The Man Made World, Teacher's Manual Algebra; Bibliographies; Computers; Curriculum; Curriculum Development; Educational Objectives; Engineering; Mathematics; Physical Sciences; Science Activities; Secondary School Science; Teaching Guides; Technology 2 Report 1968 The Development of a Computer Model for Projecting Statewide College Enrollments: A Preliminary Study Rensselaer Research Corp. The Development of a Computer Model for Projecting Statewide College Enrollments: A Preliminary Study Computer Oriented Programs; Cost Effectiveness; Educational Planning; Enrollment Projections; Feasibility Studies; Higher Education; Information Systems; Input Output Analysis; Mathematical Models; Simulation; New York 3 Book 1974 Bibliography on Growth and Education Boulder, Colo. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education 42 Bibliography on Growth and Education Bibliographies; Business; Communication Thought Transfer; Curriculum Development; Economics; Education; Educational Change; Educational Improvement; Educational Research; Environment; Health; Higher Education; Moral Values; Philosophy; Planning; Population Distribution; Problem Solving 5 Report 1979 Nurse Training Act of 1975: Second Report to the Congress, March 15, 1979 (Revised) Health Resources Administration (DHEW/PHS), Bureau of Health Manpower Nurse Training Act of 1975: Second Report to the Congress, March 15, 1979 (Revised) Degree Requirements; Employment Patterns; Employment Projections; Employ ment Qualifications; Employment Statistics; Geographic Distribution; Labor Supply; Models; Nurses; Research Reports; Salaries; Tables (Data), Nursing, Pugh-Roberts; Nurse Practitioners 6 Book 1980 Advances Theory & Application Academic Press 16 Control & Dynamic Systems Advances Theory & Application 0-12-012716-4 CONTROL THEORY; DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING 7 Magazine Article 1982 A Technology Lag that May Stifle Growth Business Week 2760 126, 129-130 Oct 11 A Technology Lag that May Stifle Growth Technological change; Growth industries; Economic activity; Industrial; Capital investments; Kondratieff cycle; Economic conditions & forecasts; Investment analysis 8 Book 1982 Advances in Control & Dynamic Systems Academic Press 18 Advances in Control & Dynamic Systems 0-12-012718-0 BIOLOGICAL CONTROL SYSTEMS 9 Journal Article 1983 Measuring Entry Barriers and the Rule of Reason: A Sophisticated Approach to Antitrust Analysis: Part I Antitrust Law & Economics Review 15 4 59-71 Measuring Entry Barriers and the Rule of Reason: A Sophisticated Approach to Antitrust Analysis: Part I Antitrust Law & Economics Review Antitrust; Predatory pricing; Market entry; Economic theory; Acquisitions & mergers; Industrial concentration; Economic policy; Economic policy & planning 10 Journal Article 1988 System Dynamics Review: Special Issue on Chaos System Dynamics Review 4 1-2 246 System Dynamics Review: Special Issue on Chaos System Dynamics Review 11 Report 1988 Mathless simulation with STELLA (?) The Technical Education Resource Center (TERC) Mathless simulation with STELLA (?) methods, education, pedagogy, simulation, software 12 Journal Article 1989 Management Brief: Decisions, Decisions Economist (UK) 312 7612 64-65 Management Brief: Decisions, Decisions Economist (UK) Strategic planning; Decision making; Advantages; Disadvantages; History; Microcomputers; Management science/Operations research; Planning 13 Journal Article 1989 Integrating Total Quality Control and System Thinking: a Conversation between Professor Shoji Shiba and Peter Senge POM Spectrum Fall Integrating Total Quality Control and System Thinking: a Conversation between Professor Shoji Shiba and Peter Senge 4 pp. Also available as MIT System Dynamics Group Memo D-4048-1 15 Audiovisual Material 1990? How It Ought To Be Quincy, Mass. Massachusetts Dept. of Education Videotape How It Ought To Be education Available from: Video Duplication Services, MET-Bureau of Educational Technologies, Mass. Dept. of Education, 1385 Hancock St., Quincy MA 02169 (617-770-7508) for $17.50 ppd. 16 Newspaper Article 1991 Vermont's Broad New Plan on Energy New York Times New York January 6 Vermont's Broad New Plan on Energy 17 Journal Article 1991 The New System Dynamics Lab: A Cooperative Computing Venture The University (of Vermont) Computing Newsletter 15 2 1-3 The New System Dynamics Lab: A Cooperative Computing Venture Post-Secondary Education, Stella, Stream Erosion, Geology, Limnology 18 Journal Article 1991 Pre-College Education Project CENTER-PIECE: Mathematics, Science, Technology News from Lesley College 1991 February 7 - 8 Pre-College Education Project K-12 education, MIT, System Dynamics in Education Project (SDEP), Undergraduate Research Opportunity Project (UROP) Includes quotes from 'Wondering Thoughts About Education', an unpublished paper (March 1990) by John Bemis, a sponsor of UROP/SDEP. 19 Journal Article 1992 Brattleboro Union High School-A Start Down the Road The Creative Learning Exchange 1 2 1, 3-4 Brattleboro Union High School-A Start Down the Road STELLA, secondary education 20 Report 1992 What is the Center for Organizational Learning? MIT System Dynamics Group Memo What is the Center for Organizational Learning? D-4292 10 pp 21 Report 1992 System Thinking Resource Guide MIT System Dynamics Group Memo System Thinking Resource Guide D-4321-1 22 Book 1992 MOHAWK, Models of Human Activities in Work Context, Separate Papers 1 Roskilde Riso National Laboratory MOHAWK, Models of Human Activities in Work Context, Separate Papers 1 23 Report 1993 21st Century News: The Newsletter for Leaders of 21st Century Studies Gerald O. Barney Institute for 21st Century Studies, Inc. 21st Century News: The Newsletter for Leaders of 21st Century Studies Religion; World Dynamics; Food; Energy; Global environment; Poverty; Economics; Sociology; Leadership; Government; Land use; Resources; Ecology; Population dynamics Quarterly Newsletter distributed internationally 24 Journal Article 1993 Using Growth and Underinvestment for Capital Planning The Systems Thinker 4 6 Using Growth and Underinvestment for Capital Planning Limits to Growth, interlocked patterns of behavior, perceptual delays, underinvesting in service capacity, eroding performance standards, intrapeneur 25 Journal Article 1994 Archetype-Behavior Pairs The Systems Thinker 5 9 Archetype-Behavior Pairs graphs of behavior over time, storylines 6305 Web Page 1996 Road Maps : A Guide to Learning System Dynamics System Dynamics in Education Project 2001 July 14 Jan 12, 2000 pdf file Road Maps : A Guide to Learning System Dynamics Developed by the System Dynamics in Education Project at MIT under the direction of; Professor Jay Forrester. http://sysdyn.mit.edu/road-maps/home.html 26 Conference Proceedings 1999 Proceedings of the 17th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society and 5th Australian & New Zealand Systems Conference Robert Y. Cavana;Jac A.M. Vennix;Etienne A.J.A. Rouwette;Margaret Stevenson-Wright;Joy Candlish Systems Thinking for the Next Millenium Wellington, New Zealand The System Dynamics Society 156 Proceedings of the 17th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society and 5th Australian & New Zealand Systems Conference CD-ROM included 6317 Web Page 1999 12 Days Training Materials CC-SUSTAIN 2001 July 14 June 16, 2001 12 Days Training Materials Systen Educations, Dynamic Modeling, System Dynamics, Cross Curricular, Adult Representing 6 years of development by the CC-STADUS/CC-SUSTAIN Project, these materials are based on the 12-day training that the NSF funded project has provided for teacher workshops each summer. MAC or PC download files http://www.clexchange.org/lom/cle_lom_syseducation.html 5893 Conference Proceedings 2000 Proceedings of the 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;David N. Ford;Ali N. Mashayekhi Sustainability in the Third Millennium Bergen, Norway System Dynamics Society 225 print/cd-rom August 6-10 Proceedings of the 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society ISBN : 0967291429; ISDN : 0967291437 To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society and the international research conferences, contact:; Roberta L. Spencer; System Dynamics Society; Milne 300 - Rockefeller College; University at Albany, State University of New York; 135 Western Avenue; Albany, New York 12222, United States of America; phone : + 1.518.442.3865; fax: + 1.518.443.3398; Email : system.dynamics@albany.edu; Website : www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/ 6272 Edited Book 2001 Nonlinear Control Systems & Power System Dynamics Series on Asian Studies in Computer & Information Science Norwell Kluwer Academic Publishers 10 Nonlinear Control Systems & Power System Dynamics 079237312x 6309 Web Page 2001 Model Systems Self-Taught (MSST) Waters Center for System Dynamics 2001 July 14 pdf file 05-Jul-2001 Model Systems Self-Taught (MSST) http://www.clexchange.org/dd_msst/ John Heinbokel (heinboke@trinityvt.edu or jhein@adelphia.net) or P. Jeffrey Potash (jpotash@trinityvt.edu or jpotash@adelphia.net) 6329 Journal Article 2001 Informational Requirements and the Regulatory Process of Agricultural Biotechnology Journal of Economic Issues 35 2 323-334 Informational Requirements and the Regulatory Process of Agricultural Biotechnology System Dynamics ISSN: 0021-3624 6330 Journal Article 2001 International Capital and Mexican Development : A System Dynamics Model Journal of Economic Issues 35 2 439-450 International Capital and Mexican Development : A System Dynamics Model ISSN: 0021-3624 6343 Conference Proceedings 2001 Proceedings of the 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society James H. Hines;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe Atlanta, Georgia System Dynamics Society 170 print/cd-rom July 23-27 Proceedings of the 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society ISBN : 0967291445 To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society and the international research conferences, contact:; Roberta L. Spencer; System Dynamics Society; Milne 300 - Rockefeller College; University at Albany, State University of New York; 135 Western Avenue; Albany, New York 12222, United States of America; phone : + 1.518.442.3865; fax: + 1.518.443.3398; Email : system.dynamics@albany.edu; Website : www.systemdynamics.org 6397 Journal Article 2001 Review : Cities and Regions as Self-Organizing Systems : Models of Complexity System Dynamics Review 17 4 365-371 Winter 2001 Review : Cities and Regions as Self-Organizing Systems : Models of Complexity Book review of Peter M. Allen's 1997 book published by Gordon and Breach Science Publishers. 6751 Journal Article 2002 The Global Citizen : Celebrating the Life of Dana Meadows System Dynamics Review 18 2 101-310 Summer The Global Citizen : Celebrating the Life of Dana Meadows Special issue edited by John D. Sterman 6773 Conference Proceedings 2002 Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society ISBN 0967291461 www.systemdynamics.org To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society and the international research Conferences, contact:; Roberta L. Spencer; System Dynamics Society; Milne 33 - Rockefeller College; University at Albany, State University of New York; 135 Western Ave.; Albany, N.Y. 12222, U.S.A.; system.dynamics@albany.edu 7271 Conference Proceedings 2003 Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Robert L. Eberlein;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe New York City, USA The System Dynamics Society print/cd-rom July 20-24 Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society ISBN 0967291488 www.systemdynamics.org To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society and the international research Conferences, contact:; Roberta L. Spencer; System Dynamics Society; Milne 33 - Rockefeller College; University at Albany, State University of New York; 135 Western Ave.; Albany, N.Y. 12222, U.S.A.; system.dynamics@albany.edu 7656 Conference Proceedings 2004 Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society print/cd-rom July 25-29 Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society ISBN 0974532916 www.systemdynamics.org To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society and the international research Conferences, contact:; Roberta L. Spencer; System Dynamics Society; Milne 33 - Rockefeller College; University at Albany, State University of New York; 135 Western Ave.; Albany, N.Y. 12222, U.S.A.; system.dynamics@albany.edu 7995 Journal Article 2005 DVD Review : The MIT System Dynamics Group Literature Collection System Dynamics Review 21 1 91-94 Spring DVD Review : The MIT System Dynamics Group Literature Collection The DVD contains over 3500 D-memos, along with theses, publications, the Guided Study Program, the Road Map series and miscellaneous papers selected by Jay W. Forrester and prepared by Nan Lux with support from the staff at the society office. ISSN: 0883-7066; various reviewers 27 Report (Ill.) Department of Energy and Natural Resources 1989 Illinois Statewide Electric Utility Plan Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources Illinois Statewide Electric Utility Plan electricity 28 Report (Ill.) Department of Energy and Natural Resources 1990 Illinois Statewide Natural Gas Utility Plan Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources Illinois Statewide Natural Gas Utility Plan 29 Report (Ill.) Department of Energy and Natural Resources 1991 Illinois Statewide Electric Utility Plan Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources Illinois Statewide Electric Utility Plan electricity 30 Report (Ill.) Department of Energy and Natural Resources 1992 Illinois Statewide Gas Utility Plan 1993-2002 Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources Rept. Illinois Statewide Gas Utility Plan 1993-2002 ILENR/RE-SP-92/10 natural gas 3 vols. 31 Report (Mass.) Executive Office of Energy Resources 1988 State Annual Forecast of Energy Resources, 1988-2000 State Annual Forecast of Energy Resources, 1988-2000 3 vol. 32 Report (Mass.) Executive Office of Energy Resources 1990 State Annual Forecast of Energy Resources, 1989-2001 State Annual Forecast of Energy Resources, 1989-2001 3 vol. 33 Report (U. S.) Department of Energy 1979 National Energy Plan II National Energy Plan II Contributors include John D. Sterman 34 Report (U. S.) Department of Energy 1981 Energy Projections to the Year 2000 NTIS Document Energy Projections to the Year 2000 DOE/PE-0029 35 Report (U. S.) Department of Energy 1983 Energy Projections to the Year 2010 NTIS Document Energy Projections to the Year 2010 DOE/PE-0029/2 7761 Conference Proceedings Mohammad Saeid Jabal Aameli;Ali Reza Mir Mohammad Sadeghi;Somayeh Alizadeh 2004 System Dynamics as a Useful Tool for Value Engineering 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni print/cd-rom July 25-29 System Dynamics as a Useful Tool for Value Engineering System Dynamics, Value Engineering, Value Management, Value Analysis, Simulation. Value Engineering, Value Management and Value Analysis are terms which refer to function oriented problem-solving techniques that have been successfully applied world- wide to reduce costs, improve performance and quality, and “add value” to products and services. System Dynamics technique is used to study the dynamic behavior of a variety of complex systems. This paper describes how system dynamics models can be created to model changes and that occur in value over time. There are many parameters were used to monitor changes in value that occurs as supply and demand change. The value of all of the products is changed during time. Some of them are changed in a short period of time for example day and week, however the other period changes are years and decades. It is important that this behavior can be simulated during this periods and System Dynamics helps us to model all of these situations for the related model. Mohammad Saeid Jabal Aameli; jabal_ms@yahoo.com; IUST University; Ali Reza Mir Mohammad Sadeghi; ammsadeghi@yahoo.com; Imam Hossen University; Somayeh Alizadeh; s_alizadeh@mail.iust.ac.ir; IUST University; Industrial Engineering Dept; Narmak Tehran; Iran 36 Conference Proceedings Khaled A. Abbas Simulation of the Effects of Transport Investment Policies on the Development of Road Infrastructure Universities' Transport Studies Group Annual Meeting Hatfield, UK Hatfield Polytechnic 19 Simulation of the Effects of Transport Investment Policies on the Development of Road Infrastructure simulation, Transportation, Road Transport, Policy Formulation, Simulation, New Developments. 38 Conference Proceedings Khaled A. Abbas 1990 A Road Provision Model Using System Dynamics David F. Anderson;George P. Richardson;John D. Sterman System Dynamics ‘90: Proceedings of the 1990 International Systems Dynamics Conference Chestnut Hill, Mass. International System Dynamics Society 1 A Road Provision Model Using System Dynamics 0-914341-16-2 Transportation, Road Transport, Highway Management 39 Conference Proceedings Khaled A. Abbas 1990 The Use of System Dynamics in Modelling Transportation Systems With Respect to New Cities in Egypt David F. Anderson;George P. Richardson;John D. Sterman System Dynamics ‘90: Proceedings of the 1990 International Systems Dynamics Conference Chestnut Hill, Mass. International System Dynamics Society 16 The Use of System Dynamics in Modelling Transportation Systems With Respect to New Cities in Egypt 0-914341-16-2 37 Conference Proceedings Khaled A. Abbas;M G H Bell;F 0 Crouch Computer based support for the Management of Investments in Road Infrastructure Planning and Transport Research and Computation Summer Annual Meeting Sussex. UK University of Sussex 13 Computer based support for the Management of Investments in Road Infrastructure simulation, Transportation, Road Transport, Road Infrastructure, Policy Formulation, Computer Models. 7199 Journal Article Michael D. Abbott;Rolfe S. Stanley 1999 Modeling Groundwater Recharge and Flow In an Upland Fractured Bedrock Aquifer System Dynamics Review 15 2 163 (22 pages) Modeling Groundwater Recharge and Flow In an Upland Fractured Bedrock Aquifer 12227562 Provider: OCLC ISSN: 0883-7066 CODEN: SDREEG 6774 Conference Proceedings Hazem Y. Abdel-Azim;Khaled Wahba 2002 System Dynamics Model for Computer Virus Prevalence Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 System Dynamics Model for Computer Virus Prevalence A standard SIR epidemic model is used as the backbone of this study, capitalizing on the dual nature of the biological virus, and computer virus prevalence. The basic SIR model has been extended to account for the important concept of a “kill signal” which is generated as an infected machine is virus-cleared. The “kill signal” spreads through a “word of mouth contact rate” (WMCR) informing physically connected machines, or machines that have exchanged software with the infected one about the virus. As a policy design it is suggested that the kill signal level, represented by a WMCR, will be dynamically increasing as the infectious population level increases. This has been proven theoretically using the simulation model to push down the epidemic level significantly, thus suggesting a very cost effective organizational policy to control the computer virus spreading. On the prevention level policy, controlling infectivity as well as the contact rate will help decrease the infection rate of PC's. ISBN 0967291461 Hazem Y. Abdel Azim; hazem@imaginet-software.com; Cairo University; 24b Anwar El-Mofty St; Nasr City; Cairo Egypt; Khaled Wahba; khaled.wahba@riti.org; Cairo University; 42 El-Higaz Street Heliopolis; Cairo 11223 Egypt 9056 Thesis Ahmed A. AbdelGawad 2004 An Automated System to Analyze System Dynamics Models Bergen University of Bergen An Automated System to Analyze System Dynamics Models 8408 Conference Proceedings Ahmed AbdelTawad AbdelGawad;Bahaa Eldin Aly Abdel-Aleem;Mohamed Mostafa Saleh;Pål I. Davidsen 2005 Automated Eigenvalue Analysis of System Dynamics Models Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston The System Dynamics Society 39 Automated Eigenvalue Analysis of System Dynamics Models The method presented in this paper allows for an investigation of how the eigenvalues characterizing the model behavior is created from the underlying model structure and how this behavior feeds back to change instantaneously the relative significance of the model structure. The method also allows us to identify the relative significance of the various parameters that governs the gains of the links and loops of the model. The method has been implemented using Matlab software for the purpose of facilitating an eigenvalue analysis of system dynamic models. This work is based on control theory as well as the previous work on eigenvalue analysis in system dynamics. It summarizes the thesis work by Ahmed AbdelTawab AbdelGawad (2004) and Bahaa E. Aly Abdel-Aleem (2004), under the supervision of Mohamed Saleh and Pål I. Davidsen. The method outlined and Matlab code developed in preparation for this paper may be implemented as part of any simulation package. 46 Thesis Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1984 The Dynamics of Software Development Project Management: An Integrative System Dynamics Perspective Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ph.D. Thesis The Dynamics of Software Development Project Management: An Integrative System Dynamics Perspective Project Management, Business, Productivity, Software 50 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1987 Improving the Portability of Software Estimation Tools 21st DoD Cost Analysis Symposium Improving the Portability of Software Estimation Tools simulation, project management 51 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1988 Understanding the '90% Syndrome' in Software Project Management: A Simulation-Based Case Study J. Systems & Software Understanding the '90% Syndrome' in Software Project Management: A Simulation-Based Case Study simulation, software, project management 53 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1988 On the Economics of Software Quality Assurance Third Intl. Conf. on Improving Software Quality and Productivity Toronto Quality Assurance Inst. On the Economics of Software Quality Assurance simulation, project management 54 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1988 The Economics of Software Quality Assurance: A Simulation-Based Case Study MIS Quarterly 12 3 395-411 The Economics of Software Quality Assurance: A Simulation-Based Case Study MIS Quarterly Software; Quality control; Systems development; Simulation; Models; Errors; NASA (space); Experiments; Tradeoff analysis; Case studies; Government agencies Software & systems; Quality control; Company specific; Public sector 56 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1989 A Study of Staff Turnover, Acquisition, and Assimilation and their Impact on Software Development Cost and Schedule J. Management Information Systems A Study of Staff Turnover, Acquisition, and Assimilation and their Impact on Software Development Cost and Schedule simulation, project management 58 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1989 The Dynamics of Software Project Staffing: A System Dynamics Based Simulation Approach IEEE Trans. on Software Engineering The Dynamics of Software Project Staffing: A System Dynamics Based Simulation Approach simulation, software, project management 59 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1989 An Integrative System Dynamics Perspective of Software Project Management: Examples of Project Estimation and Scheduling Experiments Soc. for Computer Simulation Western Multiconference An Integrative System Dynamics Perspective of Software Project Management: Examples of Project Estimation and Scheduling Experiments simulation, software, project management 60 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1989 Modeling the Software Development Process: Before, During, and After First Software Project Dynamics Modeling Workshop Monterey, CA Modeling the Software Development Process: Before, During, and After simulation, project management 61 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1989 On the Utility of Historical Project Statistics for Cost & Schedule Estimation 23rd DoD Cost Analysis Symposium On the Utility of Historical Project Statistics for Cost & Schedule Estimation simulation, software, project management 62 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1989 The Elusive Silver Lining: How we Fail to Learn from Failure in Software Development CISR Summer Session MIT The Elusive Silver Lining: How we Fail to Learn from Failure in Software Development simulation, project management 64 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1990 Investigating the Cost/Schedule Tradeoff in Software Development IEEE Software 7 1 97-105 Investigating the Cost/Schedule Tradeoff in Software Development simulation, project management, Software development management 65 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1990 On the Utility of Historical Project Statistics for Cost and Schedule Estimation: Results from a Simulation-Based Case Study Journal of Systems and Software 13 1 71-82 On the Utility of Historical Project Statistics for Cost and Schedule Estimation: Results from a Simulation-Based Case Study Journal of Systems and Software DP management; cost estimation, Software development management 68 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 1993 Thinking In Circles American Programmer 6 5 3 - 9 Thinking In Circles software development, project management 7044 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 2002 Modeling the Dynamics of Human Energy Regulation and its Implications for Obesity Treatment System Dynamics Review 18 4 431-471 Winter 2002 Modeling the Dynamics of Human Energy Regulation and its Implications for Obesity Treatment ISSN: 0883-7066 Information Sciences; Naval Postgraduate School; 555 Dyer Road; Code GB/Ah; Monterey, Calif. 93943-5103; tkabdel@nps.navy.mil 7224 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 2003 Response to Letter from Professor Platt System Dynamics Review 19 2 169-170 Summer Response to Letter from Professor Platt ISSN: 0883-7066 7272 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid 2003 The Obesity Problem : Is It a State In Mind? Robert L. Eberlein;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society New York City, USA The System Dynamics Society print/cd-rom July 20-24 The Obesity Problem : Is It a State In Mind? The growing obesity problem is addressed from a decision-theoretic perspective. In managing their health (and their bodies), people are viewed as decision makers who are managing a truly complex and dynamic system – the human body. The question is how effective the mental models that people rely on are for such a task? Specifically, our objective is twofold. First, to demonstrate the deficiencies in people’s mental models and the impacts they have on the treatment and prevention of obesity. Second, to demonstrate the utility of System Dynamics modeling tools to address these deficiencies through learning and decision support. A holistic system dynamics computer model is presented that integrates the processes of human metabolism, hormonal regulation, body composition, nutrition, and physical activity. The model serves as a laboratory tool for controlled experimentation to gain insight into the dynamics of body weight regulation. Three simulation experiments are conducted. ISBN 0967291488 tkabdelh@nps.navy.mil; Naval Postgraduate School; Information Sciences; 555 Dyer Road Code GB/Ah; Monterey CA 93943-5103 USA 40 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1981 A Study of the Multicache Consistency Problem in Multiprocessor Computer Systems Sixth Workshop on Computer Architecture for Non-Numerical Processing A Study of the Multicache Consistency Problem in Multiprocessor Computer Systems simulation, software, project management 41 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1982 A Model of Software Project Management Dynamics Sixth Intl. Computer Software and Applications Conf. (COMPSAC) A Model of Software Project Management Dynamics simulation, project management 43 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1983 The Dynamics of Software Project Scheduling Comm. of the ACM 26 5 The Dynamics of Software Project Scheduling simulation, software, project management 45 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1983 An Integrative Approach to Modeling the Software Management Process: A Basis for Identifying Problems and Evaluating Tools And Techniques IEEE Computer Society Workshop on Software Engineering Technology Transfer An Integrative Approach to Modeling the Software Management Process: A Basis for Identifying Problems and Evaluating Tools And Techniques simulation, project management 47 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1986 Impact of Schedule Estimation on Software Project Behavior IEEE Software 3 4 Impact of Schedule Estimation on Software Project Behavior simulation, software, project management 48 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1987 On the Portability of Quantitative Software Estimation Models Information & Management On the Portability of Quantitative Software Estimation Models simulation, software, project management 49 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1987 The Economics of Software Quality Assurance: A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Approach Annals of the Society of Logistics Engineers The Economics of Software Quality Assurance: A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Approach simulation, software, project management 55 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1989 Lessons Learned from Modeling the Dynamics of Software Project Management Comm. of the ACM Lessons Learned from Modeling the Dynamics of Software Project Management simulation 63 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1989 Software productivity: potential, actual, and perceived System Dynamics Review 5 2 93-113 Software productivity: potential, actual, and perceived System Dynamics Review business, software development, project management 66 Journal Article Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1990 The Elusive Silver Lining: How We Fail to Learn from Software Development Failures Sloan ManagementReview 32 1 39-48 The Elusive Silver Lining: How We Fail to Learn from Software Development Failures Sloan ManagementReview Case studies; NASA (space); Systems design; Systems development; US; Models; Project management; Strategic planning; Effectiveness Company specific; Public sector; United States; Planning; Software & systems 67 Book Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;Stuart E. Madnick 1991 Software Project Dynamics: An Integrated Approach Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, USA Prentice Hall Software Project Dynamics: An Integrated Approach Software project managament; Software development; Quality Assurance; Quality Control Includes fully interactive model for scenario experimenting and strategy analysis 42 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;N. O. Mansour 1982 Improving Software Development Productivity: A Challenge and an opportunity for Developing Nations First Intl. Computer Conf. in Egypt Cairo Improving Software Development Productivity: A Challenge and an opportunity for Developing Nations simulation, project management 44 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;John D. W. Morecroft 1983 A Generic System Dynamics Model of Software Project Management Intl. System Dynamics Conf. A Generic System Dynamics Model of Software Project Management simulation, software, project management 52 Conference Proceedings Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid;T.R. Sivasankaran 1988 Incorporating Expert Systems Technology Into Simulation Modeling: An Expert-Simulator for Project Management Soc. for Computer Simulation Western Multiconference Incorporating Expert Systems Technology Into Simulation Modeling: An Expert-Simulator for Project Management simulation, software, project management 69 Journal Article M. F. Abdin;N. S. Mohamed 1986 The Role of Simulation in Design of FMSs Computers & Industrial Engineering 11 1-4 372-376 The Role of Simulation in Design of FMSs Computers & Industrial Engineering Simulation; Flexible manufacturing systems; Computer based modeling; Systems design; Applications Software & systems; Production planning & control 70 Journal Article G. Abdou;S.P. Dutta 1993 A Systematic Simulation Approach for the Design of JIT Manufacturing Systems Journal of Operations Management 11 3 225-238 A Systematic Simulation Approach for the Design of JIT Manufacturing Systems 71 Journal Article T Abeyrama;Khalid Saeed 1984 The Gramodaya Mandalaya Scheme in Sri Lanka: Participatory Development or Power Play? Community Development J. 19 l 20-31 The Gramodaya Mandalaya Scheme in Sri Lanka: Participatory Development or Power Play? simulation, Community Development, Self-Help, Role Systems 72 Thesis Maged Aboelata 1998 Object-Oriented Modeling Framework for Water Resources Policy Analysis The University of Manitoba, Department of Civil and Geological Engineering, Winnipeg, Canada MSc Thesis Object-Oriented Modeling Framework for Water Resources Policy Analysis 191p. 73 Book Section Ralph H. Abraham 1987 Dynamics and Self-Organization F. Eugene Yates Self-Organizing Systems: The Emergence of Order New York Plenum Press Dynamics and Self-Organization 74 Book Maurice F. Aburdene 1988 Computer Simulation of Dynamic Systems Wm C Brown 368 Computer Simulation of Dynamic Systems SYSTEM ANALYSIS; SIMULATION METHODS 75 Journal Article Surya Raj Acharya;Khalid Saeed 1996 An Attempt to Operationalize the Recommendations of the 'Limits to Growth' Study to Sustain the Future of Mankind System Dynamics Review 12 4 281-304 An Attempt to Operationalize the Recommendations of the 'Limits to Growth' Study to Sustain the Future of Mankind Experimenting further with the World3 model, this paper attempts to formulate the operational means to implement the critical recommendations of the "Limits to Growth" study. With feedback as the organizing principle and the work of Daly(1991), Page(1977) and Saeed(1985) as guidelines, additional policy space has been built into the model to accommodate controversial views on resource policy and to self-regulate its critical policy parameters. The policies so created not only appear to lie within the scope of existing and potentially feasible regulatory institutions, they are also insensitive to their respective behavioral parameters as well as to the timing of intervention. Furthermore, these policies strive to influence day-by-day actions of the actors in the system instead of imposing the drastic schedule of changes in lifestyle that is implicit in the literal interpretation of the broad recommendations of the "Limits" study. In addition, the implementation of these policies appears to be possible through a national rather than a global order. 76 Journal Article Zafer Achi;Andrew Doman;Olivier Sibony;Jayant Sinha;Stephan Witt 1995 The Paradox of Fast-Growth Tigers The McKinsey Quarterly 3 4-17 The Paradox of Fast-Growth Tigers 77 Edited Book Jan Achterbergh;Raul Espejo;Harie Regtering;Markus Schwaninger 1997 Orgainzational Cybernetics Research Memorandum Nijmegen Nijmegen Business School 276p. Orgainzational Cybernetics 79 Conference Proceedings Johan Ackerman 1998 The Application of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics in the Strategic Transformation of Public Enterprises 16th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Quebec '98 Quebec City, Canada System Dynamics Society 1 1 13 Parallel Session Papers print The Application of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics in the Strategic Transformation of Public Enterprises CD-ROM supplement contains full text 5892 Conference Proceedings Johan Ackerman;Anton duPlessis 2000 Systems Thinking And Scenario Planning: A South African Case Study Of The Strategic Transformation Of A Manufacturing Company 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Bergen, Norway System Dynamics Society 25 Pål I. Davidsen;David N. Ford;Ali N. Mashayekhi Sustainability in the Third Millennium print/cd-rom August 6-10 Systems Thinking And Scenario Planning: A South African Case Study Of The Strategic Transformation Of A Manufacturing Company This presentation is a case study on structured transformation through the application of systems thinking in the manufacturing industry of South Africa. The post-apartheid era initiated radical changes in business paradigms within the country that led, inter alia, to changes in stakeholder profiles and requirements. Against this background Iscor Ltd (a privatised former state corporation) embarked on a scenario-based process of structured transformation. The application of systems thinking approaches and scenario-based planning in an environment never exposed to such logic, caused its own contextual challenges. Getting acceptance from decision-makers for the application of software in the modelling of thinking patterns and the prioritisation of issues and strategies was particularly difficult. Both authors are involved in the design and execution of the transformation program. This presentation is based on the experience gained in the application of the scenario planning methodology within the company’s overall strategic planning cycle. The presentation will focus on the approach that was used, the tools utilised and the challenges experienced. Thus it provides insight into the application of scenario planning as a tool for the systemic understanding of organisational problems in the context of rapid political and socio-economic change and transformation, and of increasing globalisation. ISBN : 0967291429 johana@hq.iscorltd.co.za; ISCOR Ltd.; PO Box 192; Newlands 0049 South Africa; ; aduples@postino.up.ac.za; Pretoria University; PO Box 11439; Maroelana 0161 South Africa 5918 Conference Proceedings Fran Ackermann;David F. Andersen;John Bryson;Colin Eden;Charles Finn;George P. Richardson 2000 The TPI Framework : An Integrated Approach To Strategy Development 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Bergen, Norway System Dynamics Society 26 Pål I. Davidsen;David N. Ford;Ali N. Mashayekhi Sustainability in the Third Millennium print/cd-rom August 6-10 The TPI Framework : An Integrated Approach To Strategy Development This paper presents a framework that integrates several prominent streams of research and practice in strategy development with system dynamics group model-building approaches to create a new and integrative approach to organizational strategy development. With respect to the theory and practice of strategy development, the TPI framework draws heavily on the approach of Bryson (1995) coupled to that of Eden and Ackermann (1998) with an approach to stakeholder analysis and management that is drawn from Finn (1997). The system dynamics component of the framework draws from both standard principles of system dynamics modeling (Richardson, 1981) as well as more recent work in group model building (Andersen and Richardson, 1997 and Richardson and Andersen 1995). Finally, the framework links to an explicit theory of organizational leadership as articulated by Bryson and Crosby (1992). The framework posits the existence of a number of conceptual principles that underpin a coherent approach to organizational strategy development, strategic change and realignment. In turn, these principles are linked to a set of software, groupware, and organizational development tools that are used by strategy change agents when they engage in client-based projects. The TPI framework was developed and refined in a series of workshops held between 1995 and 1999 by the authors of this paper and has been recently recast as a graduate course in Strategic and Systems Thinking (Andersen 1999) at the Rockefeller College, University at Albany. The framework will be taught during the summer of 2000 at the Humphrey Institute as well as at the Strathclyde Business School. The framework continues to evolve as it is tested and refined in practice. ISBN : 0967291429 fran@mansci.strath.ac.uk; University of Strathclyde; Glasgow G1 1QE UK; ; david.andersen@albany.edu; University at Albany; Rockefeller College; Milne 315B; Albany NY 12222 USA; ; jmbryson@hhh.umn.edu; University of Minnesota; Humphrey Center; Minneapolis MN 55455 USA; ; Colin Edencolin@mansci.strath.ac.uk; University of Strathclyde; Dept. of Management Science; ; charles_finn@sln.suny.edu; Empire State College; Graduate Studies; 23 Union Avenue; Saratoga Springs NY 12866 USA; ; g.p.richardson@albany.edu; University at Albany; Rockefeller College; Milne 103C; Albany NY 12222 USA 7658 Conference Proceedings Fran Ackermann;Susan Howick;David F. Andersen 2004 Stirling Revisited : Practical Approaches to Merging Two Systems Thinking Streams 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni print/cd-rom July 25-29 Stirling Revisited : Practical Approaches to Merging Two Systems Thinking Streams The 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, held in Stirling, reviewed a range of related Systems Thinking approaches. This paper focuses on the specific approach described by Eden in Stirling and proposes a number of guidelines that can be used to explicitly and formally link Eden's Systems Thinking approaches to formal simulation models. The specific case presented involves linking semantically rich scenario maps to a formal causal influence diagram that was in turn used as the basis for a formal simulation model. While the case reported on is quite specific, we suggest that a broader range of complementary systems thinking approaches can and should be integrated with more traditional SD simulation methods. The specific case study reported on examines a scenario-based simulation of the promotion of renewable energy sources in the UK electric power market. This work also informs on-going research in group model building, strategy modeling (especially using scenarios) and the on-going debate about qualitative vs. quantitative system dynamics. Fran Ackermann; fran@mansci.strath.ac.uk; University of Strathclyde; Dept of Management Science; 40 George Street; Glasgow G1 1QE UK; Susan Howick; susan@mansci.strath.ac.uk; University of Strathclyde; Department of Management Science; 40 George Street; Glasgow G1 1QE UK; David F. Andersen; david.andersen@albany.edu; University at Albany; 315B Milne Hall; 135 Western Avenue; Albany NY 12222 USA 8101 Journal Article Fran Ackermann;Terry M. Williams;Colin Eden 2003 Structuring a Delay and Disruption Claim : an Application of Cause-Mapping and System Dynamics European Journal of Operational Research 148 192-204 Structuring a Delay and Disruption Claim : an Application of Cause-Mapping and System Dynamics 78 Conference Proceedings Fran Ackermann;Terry M. Williams;Colin Eden;Andrew J. Tate 1994 Using Cognitive Mapping to Develop a Large Forensic System Dynamics Model 1994 International System Dynamics Conference Sterling, Scotland System Dynamics Society Problem-Solving Methodologies 1 Using Cognitive Mapping to Develop a Large Forensic System Dynamics Model 80 Journal Article Russell L. Ackoff 1994 Systems Thinking and Thinking Systems System Dynamics Review 10 2/3 175-188 Systems Thinking and Thinking Systems 6394 Journal Article Russell L. Ackoff 2001 OR : After the Post Mortem System Dynamics Review 17 4 341-346 Winter 2001 OR : After the Post Mortem ISSN 0883-7066 Professor R. L. Ackoff; 1021 Lancaster Avenue; Suite 210; Bryn Mawr, PA 19010 USA 7075 Conference Proceedings Russell L. Ackoff;Peter M. Senge 2002 The Dynamic Concept of an Enterprise; and, Managing and Leading Organizations as Communities Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe Special Sessions print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 The Dynamic Concept of an Enterprise; and, Managing and Leading Organizations as Communities Russell L. Ackoff and Peter M. Senge will speak on THE DYNAMIC CONCEPT OF AN ENTERPRISE and MANAGING AND LEADING ORGANIZATIONS AS COMMUNITIES respectively. Conceptual transformations to management and organizations in an enterprise, and the evolving qualities of organizations as human communities, will be discussed. Russell L. Ackoff is Anheuser-Busch Professor Emeritus of Management Science at The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, an author and co-author. Peter M. Senge is a Senior Lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Founding Chair of the Society for Organizational Learning (SoL), author and co- author. ISBN 0967291461; This session is sponsored by IBM. Russell Ackoff; rlackoff@aol.com; 1021 Lancaster Avenue #201; Bryn Mawr PA 19010 USA; Peter M. Senge; psenge@mit.edu; Society for Organizational Learning; 955 Massachusetts Avenue Suite 201; Cambridge MA 02139-3180 USA 6344 Conference Proceedings Nubia Acuña Moreno;Rosa Cavanzo Cuevas;Yelitza Contreras Ospina;Jorge Parra Valencia 2001 Caleb: Microworld of the Christian Church's Membership Dynamics The 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Atlanta, Georgia System Dynamics Society James H. Hines;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 23-27 Caleb: Microworld of the Christian Church's Membership Dynamics This paper proposes a software named Caleb. Caleb is a microworld based on system dynamics that allows study of the dynamics of the membership in a Christian Church located in Bucaramanga, Colombia. The Church has been developed in the course of fifteen years, from zero to presently 3500 members. In this course the church has lost 6000 members. The problem is explained using system dynamics. The elements of growth and decline of membership are integrated in a system dynamics model. To finish, the paper presents several ideas for the manager of the Church, about how use the software to re-think activities to develop his organization. ISBN : 0967291445; To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society and the international research conferences, contact:; Roberta L. Spencer; System Dynamics Society; Milne 300 - Rockefeller College; University at Albany, State University of New York; 135 Western Avenue; Albany, New York 12222, United States of America; phone : + 1.518.442.3865; fax: + 1.518.443.3398; Email : system.dynamics@albany.edu; Website : www.systemdynamics.org Rosa Cavanzo Cuevas; romaca73@latinmail.com; ; Jorge Parra Valencia; alenciajaparrav@centrosistemas.edu.co 8706 Conference Proceedings Emmanuel Adamides;George Papaioannou;George Papachristos 2007 Thinking global, acting local: The activities of the Hellenic Chapter of the System Dynamics Society Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston, MA The System Dynamics Society Thinking global, acting local: The activities of the Hellenic Chapter of the System Dynamics Society 8705 Conference Proceedings Emmanuel Adamides;Nickolaos Pomonis;George Papachristos 2007 Path dependence and transients in random and adaptive walks on strategy fitness landscapes Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston, MA The System Dynamics Society Path dependence and transients in random and adaptive walks on strategy fitness landscapes Over the last decade complexity theory in general, and Kaufmann’s NK fitness landscape model in particular, have been very popular means of promoting evolutionary and prosessualistic approaches to strategic management. However, either in pure conceptual, or in more formal forms, these models assume rather naïve, “memoryless” and unrestricted by past choice strategy processes (organisational structure and decision making), i.e. they ignore the internal dynamics of the strategy-formulation system. In this paper, we demonstrate how system dynamics modelling can enrich the NK fitness landscape model so that these drawbacks are overcome, especially with respect to the way the fitness landscape is searched/walked. The resulting modelling framework becomes particularly useful for understanding strategic behaviours and assessing strategic flexibility under the assumption of resource-based competition as it allows the explicit modelling of the dynamics of assets accumulation and the complementarity and substitution effects among strategic decisions and actions towards resource and capability development for achieving higher fitness. We demonstrate our approach in the modelling of operations strategy as an emergent process of distributed decision making for capabilities development. 8162 Conference Proceedings Emmanuel D. Adamides 2006 A system dynamics computer-based learning environment for the formulation of manufacturing strategy Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Nijmegen, The Netherlands The System Dynamics Society 41 A system dynamics computer-based learning environment for the formulation of manufacturing strategy The paper discusses how a Computer Based Learning Environment (CBLE), which is based on a system dynamics model, can form the basis of strategy formulation processes at the operations level. The rationale behind, the structure and the elements of the SYDMAS CBLE, as well as its embedment in a scenario-driven manufacturing strategy formulation process are presented. Through a use case, it is shown how the CBLE can enhance the manufacturing strategy formulation process by providing a dynamic perspective and by effectively supporting the related social and knowledge processes. 7659 Conference Proceedings Emmanuel D. Adamides;Nikolaos Pomonis;Yeoryios A. Stamboulis 2004 Embedding Game-Theoretic Concepts into System Dynamics Models : The Case of Complementary Products Development 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni print/cd-rom July 25-29 Embedding Game-Theoretic Concepts into System Dynamics Models : The Case of Complementary Products Development The problem of mutual resource commitment during the development of complementary products is modeled as an evolutionary Prisoner’s Dilemma game. To investigate the effect of different pure and mixed cooperation and/or defection strategies over the period of a technology cycle, a system dynamics simulation model has been built using the resource-based view of the firm. The dynamics of tangible and intangible assets, such as customer base and technological learning, were included in the model. Cooperation and defection payoffs have been assumed to be time-dependent. The model was calibrated using data from the video games industry. Simulations run for different complementors’ strategies show the importance of early cooperation during technology cycles. The model can be used in an interactive mode to evaluate more complex industry-specific strategies. Emmanuel D. Adamides; adamides@mech.upatras.gr; University of Patras; Mechanical Eng & Aeronautics Rion; 26500 Patras Greece; Nikolaos Pomonis; npomo@yahoo.gr; University of Patras; Dpt Mechanical & Aeronautical Eng; IMIS Lab; 26500 Patras Greece; Yeoryios A. Stamboulis; ystambou@uth.gr; University of Thessaly; Gallias 6; Volos 38221 Greece 8410 Conference Proceedings Emmanuel D. Adamides;Yeoryios A. Stamboulis;Nikolaos Pomonis 2005 Modularity and Strategic Flexibility: A Cognitive and Dynamic Perspective Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston The System Dynamics Society 40 Modularity and Strategic Flexibility: A Cognitive and Dynamic Perspective The paper addresses the question whether a modular organizational structure breeds mechanisms that promote proactive strategic flexibility. We examine this question from the perspective of the cognitive school of strategic management and with the aid of system dynamics modeling and simulation to explore long-term dynamic effects. Both our analysis and our experiments with the model suggest that modular organizations do not necessarily encourage the construction of managers’ mental models with a capability to generate more strategic options and, thus, do not promote strategic flexibility at a higher degree compared to more traditional organizational structures. 81 Conference Proceedings J. M. Adamo;Michel Karsky 1977 Applications de la Dynamique des Systèmes et de la Logique Floue à un Problème de Relations du Travail Sèminaire AFCET Groupe Dynamique des Systèmes Solaize Applications de la Dynamique des Systèmes et de la Logique Floue à un Problème de Relations du Travail Fuzzy set theory, industry 82 Conference Proceedings L. E. Addison;J. W. Litchfield;J. V. Hansen 1974 Managing Growth and Change in R&D Organization: The Role of Dynamic Modeling IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics Dallas TX Managing Growth and Change in R&D Organization: The Role of Dynamic Modeling Research and development Available from the authors at Battelle-Northwest, Richland, WA 99352 84 Conference Proceedings L. E. Addison;J. W. Litchfield;J. V. Hansen 1975 Management Decision Policy Analysis with System Dynamics Eighth Annual Simulation Symposium Tampa, FL Management Decision Policy Analysis with System Dynamics 83 Conference Proceedings L. E. Addison;Marlin H. Mickle;William G. Vogt 1974 Dynamic Leontief Model for a Productive System Proceedings of the 1974 International Conference on System Man and Cybernetics Dynamic Leontief Model for a Productive System manufacturing 6786 Conference Proceedings Ziad Adel;Khaled Wahba 2002 Impact of Marketing Mix on Exports of Egyptian Textiles Using a System Dynamics Approach Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 Impact of Marketing Mix on Exports of Egyptian Textiles Using a System Dynamics Approach This paper is in quest of building a system dynamics model for the Egyptian textile industry which can be used for testing ideas to enhance the status of this industry, prepare it for expected local and international environmental changes, and boost exports. This paper concluded the high importance of investment in raw cotton development to increase exports of raw cotton and finished textile. It showed that early investment to increase fine raw cotton production is more effective in increasing exports than investment in textile manufacturing development, which would be more important after raw cotton production increase. It showed also that investment in distribution and promotion helps against competition with results better than quality and research and development for the Egyptian textile-manufacturing sector. Also, investment in quality of finished textiles should be sustainable at high levels to give a real positive effect on exports. ISBN 0967291461 Ziad Adel; wza063@motorola.com; Khaled Wahba; khaled.wahba@riti.org; Cairo University; 42 El-Higaz Street Heliopolis; Cairo 11223 Egypt 86 Conference Proceedings Karen J. Adler;Robert L. Eberlein 1987 Depression, Perception and Cognition Qifan Wang;Robert Eberlein International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Shanghai International System Dynamics Society 1-14 Depression, Perception and Cognition Psychology 85 Report Thomas Adler;John Ison 1980 Analysis of Long-Term Transportation Energy Use Dartmouth System Dynamics Group, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College Report Analysis of Long-Term Transportation Energy Use DSD 352 8108 Journal Article R. Adner;C. E. Helfat 2003 Corporate Effects and Dynamic Managerial Capabilities Strategic Management Journal 24 101-1025 Corporate Effects and Dynamic Managerial Capabilities 87 Journal Article Viktor Grigorevich Afanasyev 1980 Dynamics of Social Systems - Dinamika sotsial'nykh sistem Kommunist 1980 5 56-70 Dynamics of Social Systems - Dinamika sotsial'nykh sistem Kommunist social systems dynamics; SH- sociology: history and theory-theories, ideas and systems; METHODS 8164 Conference Proceedings John F. Affeldt 2006 The Application of System Dynamics Simulation to Volatile System Management Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Nijmegen, The Netherlands The System Dynamics Society 41 The Application of System Dynamics Simulation to Volatile System Management One of the most volatile market environments of our time is the energy business. Whether the energy medium is gasoline, electricity, or natural gas, traditional market forces do not seem to exert the same influences as in other markets. Indeed, the behavior of the energy market sometimes seems to defy traditional understanding of the law of supply and demand. Management of, and survival within, such a system requires deep understanding of the system’s potential behaviors under many different scenario settings. System Dynamics (SD) is posited as the most appropriate first methodology to apply when a system with highly volatile behavior is under scrutiny. This paper presents the background and some of the lessons learned from projects in which SD simulation was applied to analyze and understand the highly volatile energy market. A natural gas strategic acquisition simulation provides a tool for examination of market dynamics with a focus on acquisition strategy, while a gasoline business simulation provides insights into the supply side of the energy business. The application of SD to volatile environment management is not new; the scale of these simulations, and some of the techniques used for design and rollout potentially make the projects unique. 8411 Conference Proceedings Ashish Agarwal;Ravi Shankar 2005 Modeling Supply Chain Performance in Different Market Scenarios Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston The System Dynamics Society 40 Modeling Supply Chain Performance in Different Market Scenarios Performance of a supply chain depends on the integration of its trading partners and its abillity to quickly respond to market changes. A system dynamics approach has been attempted in this paper to model the effect of integration and agility on performance of a case supply chain involved in FMCG business. The dynamic interactions between the different variables related to cause and effect of integration and agility of a case supply chain performance variables indicates that the influence of increase in integration level on the performance of the case supply chain is relatively more significant as compared to the influence of a similar increase in the agility level. 88 Journal Article Michel Agbodan 1972 Organic and Inorganic Theory of Development - Organische und Anorganische Entwicklungstheorie zur Neudeutung des Auslandischen Entwicklungsbeitrages Eine Modell-theoretische Darstellung Dritte Welt [Die ] 1 4 479-497 Organic and Inorganic Theory of Development - Organische und Anorganische Entwicklungstheorie zur Neudeutung des Auslandischen Entwicklungsbeitrages Eine Modell-theoretische Darstellung Dritte Welt [Die ] Development; Developing countries; Organic & inorganic aspects of development social change and economic development-social change & economic development 5537 Thesis Safia Aggarwal 1995 Population Dynamics of the Zebra Mussel in the Illinois River Urbana University of Illinois 143 MS Thesis Population Dynamics of the Zebra Mussel in the Illinois River 5787 Journal Article Sajjad Ahmad;Slobodan P. Simonovic 2000 System Dynamics Modeling of Resevoir Operations for Flood Management Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering 14 3 190-198 July System Dynamics Modeling of Resevoir Operations for Flood Management 5919 Conference Proceedings Sajjad Ahmad;Slobodan P. Simonovic 2000 Dynamic Modeling Of Flood Management Policies 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Bergen, Norway System Dynamics Society 26-27 Pål I. Davidsen;David N. Ford;Ali N. Mashayekhi Sustainability in the Third Millennium print/cd-rom August 6-10 Dynamic Modeling Of Flood Management Policies Economic and social impacts related to flood disaster are two important and interdependent issues addressed by flood management policies. Economic impacts include structural and non-structural damages caused by the floods and the social impacts of flood disaster are mainly related to evacuation, where public response to disaster warning plays an important role. This paper presents a system dynamics model that captures dynamic interaction between different components of the flood management system. The model provides a platform for evaluation of the consequences of various policy alternatives for flood management. The operation of reservoir and floodway has been simulated. Operating rules are developed for high flow/flood years to minimize flooding. Alternative operating rules are explored by changing reservoir storage allocation and outflows. Impacts on the flood management capacity of the reservoir are investigated by simulating gated spillway in addition to an existing unregulated spillway. Flood damages to buildings and infrastructure are calculated. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reservoir levels at the start of the flood season and outflow from the reservoir. The modeling work on economic impacts of flood management policies is complete. However, the work on social aspects of flood management especially public response to flood warning and people’s perception of risk with special relevance to evacuation planning is in progress. The model is implemented for the Red River basin in Canada using recorded data of large flood events. ISBN : 0967291429 umahmads@cc.umanitoba.ca; University of Manitoba; Department of Civil and Geological Engineering; Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3T 5V6; ; slobodan_simonovic@umanitoba.ca; University of Manitoba; Natural Resources Institute and Dept. of Civil and Geological Engineering 8412 Conference Proceedings Fadl M. Ahmed;Khaled Wahba;Abdallah S. Ahmed 2005 The Dynamics of Glucose Regulatory System: An Educational Tool for the Students of First Medical Year Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston The System Dynamics Society 40-41 The Dynamics of Glucose Regulatory System: An Educational Tool for the Students of First Medical Year The glucose regulatory system in man is a complex system. It is a nonlinear, multiloop, self-regulatory feedback system which exhibits behavior which is often counter-intuitive and which is insensitive to many external interference. The challenge in this work is to employ a model that is “simple, but not too simple” for the students of first medical year with the purpose to help them understand the glucose regulatory system in the human being body by quasi-practical approach based on simulation tool and not my theoretical understanding. This model describes the carbohydrate metabolism, digestion, absorption and fate of intake carbohydrates. The model attempts to reflect the underlying (patho) physiology of insulin action and carbohydrate absorption in quantitative terms such as insulin sensitivity, volume of glucose and insulin distribution and maximal rate of gastric emptying. The model represents the integration of two existing models proposed earlier by Foster et al. (1970) and Lehmann et al. (1992). 8136 Thesis Neveen Mohamed Mohamed Ahmed 2003 The Dynamics of Twin Crises in Asia-An Insight into The Egyptian Economy Maastricht, Netherlands Maastricht School of Management MBA Thesis The Dynamics of Twin Crises in Asia-An Insight into The Egyptian Economy The study attempts to identify the extent of similarities, and/or differences between the conditions that surrounded the Asian tigers economies from 1994-1999, and those in Egypt from 1998-2003. A generic “Business Dynamics model” is developed, based on a simplified causal framework of three main independent groups of variables; economic fundamentals, Real and Financial links, and vulnerability indicators, the relevant data for Indonesia is chosen for the simulation model. Although similar symptoms between the two cases were identified, the origins for trouble were quite different; while the Indonesian crisis was mainly attributable to the combination of fixed exchange regime, moral hazard, and excessive financial liberalization, the Egyptian economy has suffered a weak real sector, undiversified and exogenously determined sources of hard currency, and a long- lasting rigid exchange rate system. In summary, the authors contend that even a floatation of the Egyptian pound has taken place, the Egyptian currency crisis would not have been resolved, unless drastic measures were to be taken to trouble shoot the other two main sources of trouble; low levels of exports, and undiversified sources of dollar flows. Neveen Mohamed Mohamed Ahmed; gilankabani@hotmail.com; Egyptian Cabinet; 7 El Edreasy St; Behind Heliopolis Sporting Club; Heliopolis Cairo Egypt 7660 Conference Proceedings Neveen Mohamed Mohamed Ahmed;Khaled Wahba 2004 The Dynamics of Twin Crises in Asia : A Comparison between the Egyptian and the Indonesian Currency Crises 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni print/cd-rom July 25-29 The Dynamics of Twin Crises in Asia : A Comparison between the Egyptian and the Indonesian Currency Crises The study attempts to identify the extent of similarities, and/or differences between the conditions that surrounded the Asian tigers economies from 1994-1999, and those in Egypt from 1998-2003. A generic “Business Dynamics model” is developed, based on a simplified causal framework of three main independent groups of variables; economic fundamentals, Real and Financial links, and vulnerability indicators, the relevant data for Indonesia is chosen for the simulation model. Although similar symptoms between the two cases were identified, the origins for trouble were quite different; while the Indonesian crisis was mainly attributable to the combination of fixed exchange regime, moral hazard, and excessive financial liberalization, the Egyptian economy has suffered a weak real sector, undiversified and exogenously determined sources of hard currency, and a long- lasting rigid exchange rate system. In summary, the authors contend that even a floatation of the Egyptian pound has taken place, the Egyptian currency crisis would not have been resolved, unless drastic measures were to be taken to trouble shoot the other two main sources of trouble; low levels of exports, and undiversified sources of dollar flows. Neveen Mohamed Mohamed Ahmed; gilankabani@hotmail.com; Egyptian Cabinet; 7 El Edreasy St; Behind Heliopolis Sporting Club; Heliopolis Cairo Egypt; Khaled Wahba; khaled.wahba@riti.org; Cairo University; Faculty of Engineering; 11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek; Cairo 11211 Egypt 5766 Thesis Nam Sung Ahn 1999 A System Dynamics Model of a Large Research and Development Program Dept. of Nuclear Engineering Cambridge Massachusetts Institute of Technology 160 Ph.D. Thesis System Dynamics Model of a Large R&D Program 89 Conference Proceedings Lu Aizhu;Hu Zheng 1992 An Oil Field Planning Support System based on System Dynamics Jac A. M. Vennix;Jan Faber;Wim J. Scheper;Cees A. Th. Takkenberg Proceedings of the 1992 International System Dynamics Conference of the System Dynamics Society Utrecht, the Netherlands The System Dynamics Society 11-20 An Oil Field Planning Support System based on System Dynamics 92-9129-001-7 Petroleum, Oil, Decision Support, Planning, energy 6350 Conference Proceedings Mahmoud Ajami;Ali N. Mashayekhi;Reza Sotudeh 2001 Intervention for Organizational Learning Improvement The 19th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Atlanta, Georgia System Dynamics Society James H. Hines;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 23-27 Intervention for Organizational Learning Improvement Because of rapid environmental changes, the rate at which organizations learn may become the only sustainable source of competitive advantage. Organizations learn through their individuals. This article describes a method of intervention by a facilitator designed to enhance organization learning through changes in individuals’ mental models and vision based on Senge’s concepts and approach to organizational learning. Three power plants were used as the field for the research. The facilitator made several interventions in the management teams thinking process in several periods. In each period the nature and approach of the intervention was different. Interventions included: (1) introduction to basic theories of management principles, system thinking, and organizational learning, (2) facilitating the formation of shared vision process, (3) facilitating the formation of shared mental model process. In the second and third periods of the intervention, the discipline of dialogue was emphasized. The results and effectiveness of the interventions after each period were measured and evaluated using cognitive mapping methods. ISBN : 0967291445; To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society and the international research conferences, contact:; Roberta L. Spencer; System Dynamics Society; Milne 300 - Rockefeller College; University at Albany, State University of New York; 135 Western Avenue; Albany, New York 12222, United States of America; phone : + 1.518.442.3865; fax: + 1.518.443.3398; Email : system.dynamics@albany.edu; Website : www.systemdynamics.org Mahmoud Ajami; m.ajami@tavanir.org; ; Ali Mashayekhi; mashayek@sina.sharif.ac.ir; ; Reza Sotudeh; University of Hertfordshire; UK 6777 Conference Proceedings Mahmoud Ajami;Ali N. Mashayekhi;Reza Sotudeh 2002 A Comparative Study Among Policy and Decision Makers Through Their Mental Models Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 A Comparative Study Among Policy and Decision Makers Through Their Mental Models Cognitive map analysis has been widely used to understand the structure of decision-makers thought. It has been introduced as a proper tool to map the mental model of a decision-maker. Facilitators as agents who intervene and facilitate change in the mental models can use it to map the mental model of managers and assist them to change it or evaluate its changes over time. This paper introduces a framework of intervention, which has been implemented in three companies in order to change individuals’ mental models toward shared mental models. Cognitive maps are used to measure the impact of intervention in different stages. Cognitive maps of three decision-makers, in three companies, have been used as a tool to measure the changes in the thought processes of decision-makers and to measure the rate of sharing among them after each intervention. Analysis and evaluation of the rate of sharing and the contents leads to some guidelines for more effective intervention. ISBN 0967291461 Mahmoud Ajami; m.ajami@tavanir.org; Tavanir Co; PO Box 14155-6467; Berezil Ave Vanak Sq; Tehran Iran; Ali N. Mashayekhi; mashayek@sharif.edu; Sharif University of Technology; Graduate School of Management; Azadi Avenue P O Box 11365-8639; 8639 Tehran Iran; Reza Sotudeh; University of Hertfordshire; Hertfordshire AL10 9AB UK 5920 Conference Proceedings Mahmoud Ajami;Reza Sotudeh 2000 Power Plant Performance : Identification of a Relationship Between Availability, Reliability and Productivity 18th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Bergen, Norway System Dynamics Society 27 Pål I. Davidsen;David N. Ford;Ali N. Mashayekhi Sustainability in the Third Millennium print/cd-rom August 6-10 Power Plant Performance : Identification of a Relationship Between Availability, Reliability and Productivity Quality of electrical energy is measured by means of two categories of indices: One category is technical indices which are integrated in availability (A) and reliability (R). Another category of indices is economical which is integrated in productivity (P) index. Three mentioned integrated indices are collectively abbreviated to ARP indices and performance is a function of them. The ranges of ARP variations are vast and every country based on the level of its technological, economical and based on its social conditions should find the optimum level of the indices and then try to increase them gradually. This paper, at the level of power plant, describes the performance improvement via internal relations of the ARP indices and shows their interrelations by means of causal diagram and determines the strategies and related policies, as managerial manoeuvres, to improve the performance. ISBN : 0967291429 m.ajami@tavanir.org; Tavanir, Iran; ; Reza Sotudeh; University of Hertfordshire, UK 90 Book H. Akaike;T. Nakagawa 1989 Statistical Analysis & Control of Dynamic Systems Kluwer Academic Statistical Analysis & Control of Dynamic Systems 90-277-2786-4 DYNAMICS 8707 Conference Proceedings Bahadir Akcam;Deborah Andersen;David Andersen;Anthony Cresswell 2007 Secondary Data Analysis in System Dynamics Modeling Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston, MA The System Dynamics Society Secondary Data Analysis in System Dynamics Modeling The importance of qualitative data is appreciated in the System Dynamics field since its early days. In his description of information content, Forrester (1980) categorized information into three main databases; Mental, written and numerical. Most of the information available to modeler is qualitative in nature. Forrester (1991) discusses that despite qualitative information’s importance, management and social scientists have long been neglected this “far richer and more informative body of information that exist in the knowledge and experience of those in the active, working world.” Luna-Reyes and Andersen (2003) indicate the lack of well defined protocols to incorporate qualitative information during the modeling process. In their paper, they discuss the suitability of several qualitative data collection methods in the different stages of the modeling process. In their conclusion, they indicate the need for the development and testing formal protocols involving qualitative social research techniques to support the modeling process. This paper is indented to respond such need by developing and testing a formal protocol to support the test of a generic dynamic theory by using qualitative data analysis techniques. These techniques will be used to do secondary data analysis of previously done interviews by other researchers. 8413 Conference Proceedings Bahadir Akcam;Victor Asal 2005 The Dynamics of Ethnic Terrorism Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston The System Dynamics Society 41 The Dynamics of Ethnic Terrorism Despite the fact that much of recent terror is ethnically based, little attention has been paid to systematically explaining ethnic violence. We build on the work done by the Minorities at Risk Project (MAR) to the issue of ethnic terror using systems dynamics. While there has been important work done using MAR to explore ethnic violence as a base using statistics and qualitative analysis (Gurr 2000) there has been little work exploring ethnic terrorism specifically and none that has exploited systems dynamics as an analytical tool. The application of a systems dynamics approach will help us go beyond some of the limitations of statistical analysis to explore how government policy and ethnonationalist terrorism feed of each other in a cycle of violence, discrimination and repression. This work has three broad goals. First, it is targeted at understanding the causes of ethnic terror and second examining the way the relation between the ethnic policies of governments and the behavior of ethnic groups - particularly their choice to use or not use terrorism relate systematically. Third, this work sees to apply for the first time the tools of systems dynamics to political violence. 8165 Conference Proceedings Bahadir Akcam;Anthony M. Cresswell;David F. Andersen 2006 Testing a Generic Dynamic Theory of Collaboration in the World Trade Center Case Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Nijmegen, The Netherlands The System Dynamics Society 42 Testing a Generic Dynamic Theory of Collaboration in the World Trade Center Case Researchers at University at Albany did twenty-nine in-depth interviews for gathering first-person accounts of activities, decisions, problems, and solutions of the World Trade Center response and recover process. A generic dynamic theory of collaboration is tested in this interview dataset. The theory is based on Luna-Reyes, et al.’s (2004) model on interagency collaboration. It’s found that during the response and recovery processes participants developed several social accumulations (individual understanding, shared understanding, and relationships). These social accumulations again improved the effectiveness of the processes they were produced. They also increased the effectiveness of other processes in response and recovery effort. These findings are consistent with the generic dynamic theory of collaboration Luna-Reyes, et al. (2004) proposed. A system dynamics model is developed to discuss several different scenarios. 6785 Conference Proceedings Ömer Akkentli;Mert Nuhoglu 2002 Traffic Deadlock Caused by Two Intersections Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 Traffic Deadlock Caused by Two Intersections In this work, we discovered an important feedback structure in the traffic flow, which generates a threshold value that causes deadlock in the traffic flow. There is a two-way main artery, which is fed by two intersecting roads in reverse directions. When the traffic flow is congested, one of the main arteries may become full. Then the cars coming from the intersecting road that feeds this artery stop in the junction. By doing so, these cars cause the other main artery, which is in the reverse direction, to be blocked. Therefore the tail of the jam in this artery becomes longer and the cars entering the artery stop in the outflow junction of the first artery. Since the other road is also blocked, the outflow of this road becomes blocked and none can move anywhere. This work is evidence for the argument that individual movements – movements which do not care about the system structure – lead to system crash. ISBN 0967291461 Ömer Akkentli; akkent@yahoo.com; Beyazgul Cad No 33; Arnavutkoy; Besiktas Istanbul Turkey; Mert Nuhoglu; mert.nuhoglu@isnet.net.tr; Madalyon Sk 2-7; Nisantasi; 80220 Istanbul Turkey 8709 Conference Proceedings Henk Akkermans 2007 Beyond Rounding Up the Usual Suspects: Towards Effective Quality Management Policies for Production Ramp-ups in Supply Chains Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston, MA The System Dynamics Society Beyond Rounding Up the Usual Suspects: Towards Effective Quality Management Policies for Production Ramp-ups in Supply Chains This study investigates the issue of managing quality during production ramp-ups in high-tech supply chains. It combines an in-depth case study of one particular high-tech supply chain setting with insights from the recently-emerging literature on behavioral operations and synthesizes these two into a system dynamics simulation model. Model analysis suggests that isolated and intuitively appealing quality management policies are likely to lead to suboptimal or even detrimental results. Of crucial importance is finding the balance between ramping up production rates sufficiently fast to capture short-lived market demand and avoiding to increasing production starts so high that workload levels in the supply chain move beyond the tipping point. This means that when workloads become too high, the entire supply chain can get bogged down in a vicious cycle of high workloads leading to low quality levels, which lead to high rework levels and hence to even higher workloads. Especially promising policies to be used in combination are, firstly, moderate production ramp-up rates that turn out to generate more timely output than overly aggressive production ramp-ups. Secondly, policies that leverage the expertise that can be gained from analyzing defective units that cannot be repaired easily downstream, as these may yield knowledge regarding hidden quality issues upstream 8708 Conference Proceedings Henk Akkermans;Willem van Oppen 2007 From Mopping the Floor to Fixing the Plumbing: How KPN Telecom Uses SD to Improve Ramp-ups In its Service Supply Network Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Boston, MA The System Dynamics Society From Mopping the Floor to Fixing the Plumbing: How KPN Telecom Uses SD to Improve Ramp-ups In its Service Supply Network Paper describes an ongoing applied research project at KPN Telecom, the leading mobile and fixed telephony operator in the Netherlands. The project describes is aimed at developing a collaborative sales & operations planning business process at KPN that will support the ramp-up of new IP-based service offerings through KPN’s service supply network. Paper discusses root causes for why coordinating capacity and sales ramp-ups in the various stages of the chain is far more difficult in service than in manufacturing. Introduces workload as a key organising concept in collaborative supply chain coordination during ramp-ups. Describes project findings so far, which are still limited to conceptual simulation model development through group model-building workshops. Subsequent project results will be incorporated in the paper as these become available. 91 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans 1992 Participative Modeling To Support Strategic Decision Making in Operations-A Case Study Jac A. M. Vennix;Jan Faber;Wim J. Scheper;Cees A. Th. Takkenberg Proceedings of the 1992 International System Dynamics Conference of the System Dynamics Society Utrecht, the Netherlands The System Dynamics Society 21-31 Participative Modeling To Support Strategic Decision Making in Operations-A Case Study 7243 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans 1993 Participative Business Modelling to Support Strategic Decision Making in Operations - A Case Study International Journal of Operations & Production Management 13 10 34-48 Participative Business Modelling to Support Strategic Decision Making in Operations - A Case Study 94 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans 1995 Quantifying the Soft Issues: A Case Study in the Banking Industry Toshiro Shimada;Khalid Saeed System Dynamics '95 Tokyo International System Dynamics Society 2 2 313-322 Quantifying the Soft Issues: A Case Study in the Banking Industry Finance 7241 Thesis Henk A. Akkermans 1995 Modelling with Managers : Participative Business Modelling to Support Strategic Decision-Making Eindhoven University of Technology Ph.D. Thesis Modelling with Managers : Participative Business Modelling to Support Strategic Decision-Making 7242 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans 1995 Developing A Logistics Strategy Through Participative Business Modeling International Journal of Operations & Production Management 15 11 100-112 Developing A Logistics Strategy Through Participative Business Modeling 7238 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans 1999 Designing Effective Quality Management Policies with System Dynamics Simulation International Journal of Applied Quality Management 2 2 Designing Effective Quality Management Policies with System Dynamics Simulation 6337 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans 2001 Renga : A Systems Approach to Facilitating Inter-Organizatonal Network Development System Dynamics Review 17 3 179-193 Fall 2001 Renga : A Systems Approach to Facilitating Inter-Organizatonal Network Development ISSN: 0883-7066 9073 Conference Proceedings H. A. Akkermans 2001 Emergent Supply Networks. System Dynamics Simulation of Adaptive Supply Agents Proceedings of the 34th Hawaii International Conference on Systems Sciences University of Hawaii January 2001 Emergent Supply Networks. System Dynamics Simulation of Adaptive Supply Agents 7545 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans 2003 Supply Chain Management I and II Robert L. Eberlein;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society New York City, USA The System Dynamics Society print/cd-rom July 20-24 Supply Chain Management I and II Special session Recently, effective management of supply chains has gained unprecedented interest from academics and practitioners from the fields of mainstream operations management (OM) and operations research/management science (OR/MS). However, many of the most urgent and challenging puzzles in this area appear to be in need of a new research perspective if they are to be solved. Examples of such "hot topics" include the interaction of product development and manufacturing during new product introduction, information sharing in decentralised supply chains, dynamic interactions of "hard" performance indicators and "soft" variables such as trust and customer satisfaction, root causes for upstream demand amplification and ways of overcoming the resulting "bullwhip effect". All these topics can be effetively tackled by system dynamics and the many supply chain- related papers at the 2003 conference show that this is precisely what is happening. The two parallel sessions scheduled read like a showcase of the vibrant state-of-the-art here. ISBN 0967291488 henk@minase.nl; Minase BV; PO Box 278 Heuvelring 69; 5000 AG Tilburg; The Netherlands 7239 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans;W.J.M. Bertrand 1997 On the Usability of Quantitative Modelling in Operations Strategy Decision Making International Journal of Operations & Production Management 17 10 953-966 On the Usability of Quantitative Modelling in Operations Strategy Decision Making 7234 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans;Paul Bogerd;P van Doremalen 2004 Travail, Transparency and Trust : A Case Study of Computer-Supported Collaborative Supply Chain Planning in High-Tech Electronics European Journal of Operational Research 153 445-456 Travail, Transparency and Trust : A Case Study of Computer-Supported Collaborative Supply Chain Planning in High-Tech Electronics 9070 Journal Article H. A. Akkermans;P. Bogerd;P. van Doremalen 2004 Travail, Transparency and Trust: A case study of computer-supported collaborative supply chain planning in high-tech electronics European Journal of Operational Research 153 445-456 Travail, Transparency and Trust: A case study of computer-supported collaborative supply chain planning in high-tech electronics 7237 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans;Paul Bogerd;B. Vos 1999 Virtuous and Vicious Cycles on the Road Towards International Supply Chain Management International Journal of Operations and Production Management 19 5/6 565-581 Virtuous and Vicious Cycles on the Road Towards International Supply Chain Management 9075 Journal Article H. A. Akkermans;P. Bogerd;B. Vos 1999 Virtuous and vicious cycles on the road towards international supply chain management International Journal of Operations and Production Management 19 5/6 565-581 Virtuous and vicious cycles on the road towards international supply chain management 93 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;Jacqueline Bosker 1994 Design Guidelines for Participative Business Modeling 1994 International System Dynamics Conference Sterling, Scotland System Dynamics Society Problem-Solving Methodologies 15 Design Guidelines for Participative Business Modeling 7945 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;Wiebe Cnossen;Paul Bogerd 2004 Riding the Seven Waves : Mastering Supply Network Dynamics 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni print/cd-rom July 25-29 Riding the Seven Waves : Mastering Supply Network Dynamics This workshop discusses different aspects of complex dynamic behavior in supply chains and networks. More and more companies operate in effect as parts of highly decentralised interorganisational supply networks. This makes the challenge of coordinating activities within these networks all the greater. Companies have to "ride the waves" of many dynamic developments that they alone cannot control. In this workshop, we look at seven of those waves: - How to avoid the bullwhip effect ofupstream demand amplification? - How to keep capacity in sync with sales as market demand keeps increasing? - How to smoothen the transition from product development to production ramp-up? - How to smoothen the effects of the business cycle on your company’s performance? - How to grow effective and close partnership with key suppliers and customers without losing flexibility in the market? - How to make the dynamics of market standardisation work for instead of against you? - How to manage timely transitions in organisational change? Workshop format will be highly interactive, with tailored presentations on the one hand, and group model-building sessions on the other. Computerised models of these policy issues will be available. Workshops Henk A. Akkermans; henk@minase.nl; Minase BV; PO Box 278 Fabrieksstraat 1a; 5000 AG Tilburg; The Netherlands; Wiebe Cnossen; wiebe@minase.nl; Minase BV; PO Box 278 Heuvelring 69; 5000 AG Tilburg; The Netherlands; Paul Bogerd; paul@minase.nl; Minase Consulting BV; PO Box 278; 5000 AG Tilburg; The Netherlands 8123 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans;Nico Dellaert 2005 The Rediscovery of Industrial Dynamics : The Contribution of System Dynamics to Supply Chain Management in a Dynmaic and Fragmented World System Dynamics Review 21 3 173-186 Fall 2005 The Rediscovery of Industrial Dynamics : The Contribution of System Dynamics to Supply Chain Management in a Dynmaic and Fragmented World Supply chain management ISSN: 0883-7066 6784 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;Kim van Oorschot 2002 Developing a Balanced Scorecard with System Dynamics Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 Developing a Balanced Scorecard with System Dynamics The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a popular concept for performance measurement, because it focuses attention of management on just a few measures and bridges different functional areas (both financial and non-financial measures are included in the BSC). But, the BSC has also received some criticism. In this paper five limitations of the use of the BSC are discussed: BSCs focus on unidirectional causality, are unable to distinguish delays between actions and their impact on performance, have a dearth of validation capabilities, integrate insufficiently strategy with operational measures and suffer from internal biases. We propose a system dynamics approach to develop a BSC in order to overcome these limitations. We present a case study from the insurance sector where this approach is applied. The results suggest that developing a BSC with system dynamics is a promising approach to supplement existing BSC frameworks. ISBN 0967291461 h.a.akkermans@tm.tue.nl; Eindhoven University of Technology; PO Box 513; 5600 MB Eindhoven; The Netherlands; Kim van Oorschot; kim@minase.nl; Minase; Postbus 278; 5000 AG Tilburg; The Netherlands 7661 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;Kim van Oorschot 2004 Time Will Tell : The Impact of Demand Cyclicality and Supply Lead Times on Customer Order Information Sharing in Supply Chains 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni print/cd-rom July 25-29 Time Will Tell : The Impact of Demand Cyclicality and Supply Lead Times on Customer Order Information Sharing in Supply Chains Sharing of end customer information with suppliers is often cited as adequate way of improving performance in decentralised supply chains, but its effectiveness remains problematic in practice as well as in theory. Benefits of information sharing appear to relatively limited and located mainly with the supplier, not the buyer. This paper investigates if this mixed picture is perhaps due to a number of implicit assumptions. Perhaps customer information sharing is highly beneficial in some settings, and not at all in others. If that is the case, then what are the factors that will tell if information sharing is worthwhile? We introduce a generic system dynamics simulation model of a supplier- buyer supply chain to investigate what happens if these characteristics are changed. Here we find that cyclical demand patterns as well longer lead times make sharing of end customer order more advantageous for both the supplier and the buyer. If lead times for both parties are short, information sharing yields little value to either side. Henk A. Akkermans; henk@minase.nl; Minase BV; PO Box 278 Fabrieksstraat 1a; 5000 AG Tilburg; The Netherlands; Kim van Oorschot; kim@minase.nl; Minase BV; Postbus 278 Fabriekstraat 1a; 5000AG Tilburg; The Netherlands 7662 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;Kim van Oorschot 2004 Time for a Hundred Visions and Revisions : A System Dynamics Study of the Impact of Concurrent Engineering on Supply Chain Performance 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni print/cd-rom July 25-29 Time for a Hundred Visions and Revisions : A System Dynamics Study of the Impact of Concurrent Engineering on Supply Chain Performance Concurrent engineering is now commonly seen as a fruitful approach to shortening development times in product development. Concurrent engineering leads to earlier feedback and more intense communication between the different stages in product development. But, what is its effect on supply chain performance once the design that has thus been detailed out has to be manufactured? This paper focuses on this question. It presents a quantitative system dynamics study of a real-world case from the aerospace industry. In aerospace, product development typically takes many years and costs tens to hundred of millions. Our analysis suggests that concurent engineering can have a major impact on performance in aerospace supply chains, not just because production can start sooner and hence go down the learning curve earlier, but also because early feedback from production leads to improved designs during product development as well. These will then need less rework once they enter into manufacturing. Henk A. Akkermans; henk@minase.nl; Minase BV; PO Box 278 Fabrieksstraat 1a; 5000 AG Tilburg; The Netherlands; Kim van Oorschot; kim@minase.nl; Minase BV; Postbus 278 Fabriekstraat 1a; 5000AG Tilburg; The Netherlands 7282 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;A. Georges L. Romme 2003 System Dynamics at the Design-Science Interface : Past, Present and Future Robert L. Eberlein;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe Proceedings of the 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society New York City, USA The System Dynamics Society print/cd-rom July 20-24 System Dynamics at the Design-Science Interface : Past, Present and Future This paper argues that system dynamics is about design science. Design activities are aimed at changing the world, not just analyzing it. As such, design science is a research perspective that has been second nature to the engineering and medical disciplines but has been problematic for the social sciences. This is because a design focus leads one to look for major real-world problems, where real-world relevance is high but academic rigor problematic. System dynamics seeks to improve the world based upon rigorous analysis of that world. Its design orientation has led to significant business relevance, but has long hampered its academic respectability. These days, both goals appear to have been achieved. However, the academic success of SD has been largely accomplished by positioning SD as part of mainstream science. In the future, this positioning might lead to a reduced design orientation of academic SD researchers and split the field into a practitioners and academics part. ISBN 0967291488 Henk A. Akkermans; henk@minase.nl; Minase BV; PO Box 278 Heuvelring 69; 5000 AG Tilburg; The Netherlands; Georges L. Romme; a.g.l.romme@uvt.nl; Tilburg University; Faculty of Economics; PO Box 90153; 5000 LE Tilburg The Netherlands 97 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;Erwin van Schaik 1998 Measurement of Consensus and Learning and Consensus and Learning on Measurement 16th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Quebec '98 Quebec City, Canada System Dynamics Society 1 1 13 Parallel Session Papers print Measurement of Consensus and Learning and Consensus and Learning on Measurement CD-ROM supplement contains full text 9072 Journal Article H. A. Akkermans;H. van der Horst 2002 Managing IT Infrastructure Standardisation in the Networked Manufacturing Firm International Journal of Production Economics 75 1 213-228 Managing IT Infrastructure Standardisation in the Networked Manufacturing Firm 7236 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans;K. van Helden 2002 Virtuous and Vicious Cycles in ERP Implementation : a Case Study of Interrelations Between Critical Success Factors European Journal of Information Systems 1 35-46 Virtuous and Vicious Cycles in ERP Implementation : a Case Study of Interrelations Between Critical Success Factors 95 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;Jac A. M. Vennix 1996 Clients' Opinions on Group Model-Building : An Exploratory Study George P. Richardson;John D. Sterman 1996 International System Dynamics Conference Cambridge, Massachusetts System Dynamics Society 1 2 5-8 Clients' Opinions on Group Model-Building : An Exploratory Study 96 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans;Jac A. M. Vennix 1997 Clients' Opinions on Group Model-Building : An Exploratory Study System Dynamics Review 13 1 3-31 Clients' Opinions on Group Model-Building : An Exploratory Study Group model-building is increasingly used to support strategic decision-making in organizations. However, little is known about its effectiveness, apart from anecdotal evidence and statements by consultants that it works. This article reports on an assessment study of six group model-building projects. Since few tested theories are available, case studies and a qualitative research approach were used to shed more light on the effectiveness of group model-building porjects in real organizations working on real strategic problems. The results show that a number of hypotheses known from experience or textbook theory were 'confirmed', while others were only partially confirmed or should be rejected on the basis of the six cases investigated. 92 Conference Proceedings Henk A. Akkermans;Jac A. M. Vennix;Etiënne A. J. A. Rouwette 1993 Participative Modelling to Facilitate Organizational Change: A Case Study Enrique Zepeda;Jose A. D. Machuca International System Dynamics Conference Cancun, Mexico System Dynamics Society 1 Participative Modelling to Facilitate Organizational Change: A Case Study 9069 Journal Article H. A. Akkermans;K.E. von Oorschot 2005 Relevance Assumed: A Case Study of Balanced Scorecard Development Using System Dynamics Journal of the Operational Research Society 56 931-941 Relevance Assumed: A Case Study of Balanced Scorecard Development Using System Dynamics 9071 Journal Article H. A. Akkermans;C.J.G.M. Vos 2003 Amplification in Service Supply Chains: An Exploratory Case Study from the Telecom Industry Production and Operations Management 12 2 204-223 Amplification in Service Supply Chains: An Exploratory Case Study from the Telecom Industry 7235 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans;C.J.G.M. Vos in press, 2003 Amplification in Service Supply Chains : An Exploratory Case Study from the Telecom Industry Production and Operations Management Amplification in Service Supply Chains : An Exploratory Case Study from the Telecom Industry 7240 Journal Article Henk A. Akkermans;G.C.J.M. Vos 1996 Capturing the Dynamics of Facility Allocation International Journal of Operations & Production Management 16 11 57-70 Capturing the Dynamics of Facility Allocation 98 Conference Proceedings Yasemin Aksoy;Lisa Ferguson 1997 Experiences with the Beer Game Yaman Barlas;Vedat G. Diker;Seckin Polat 15th International System Dynamics Conference: "Systems Approach to Learning and Education into the 21st Century" Istanbul, Turkey Bogazici University Printing Office 1 2 387-388 Interactive Simulation Games (1) (Parallel Session) Experiences with the Beer Game 6783 Conference Proceedings Tarek Al Etr;Khaled Wahba 2002 Reengineering the Furniture Industry in Egypt to Help Improve its Export Capability : A System Dynamics View Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 Reengineering the Furniture Industry in Egypt to Help Improve its Export Capability : A System Dynamics View The furniture industry around the world is undergoing a period of rapid globalization. With the rapid globalization of the furniture industry and the competitive pressures of imports, a nation has to find a way to stay competitive. The furniture industry in Egypt experienced a lot of weaknesses and constraints that limited industry growth and hence its exports. Most important are the quality, delivery delays and others that are rooted fundamentally into the current structure of the industry. The objective of the paper is to propose group of policies that might help reengineer the Egyptian furniture industry. As outcomes of the research, the authors have suggested two group of policies based on the scale of the furniture manufacturer using a time framework approach. A system dynamic methodology has been used to conceptualize the dynamics of the furniture industry in Egypt, and hence propose macro solutions to the observed problems by the researchers. ISBN 0967291461 Tarek Al Etr; tamba15@hotmail.com; Khaled Wahba; khaled.wahba@riti.org; Cairo University; 42 El-Higaz Street Heliopolis; Cairo 11223 Egypt 100 Journal Article M.S. Alam;A.M.Z. Huq;B. K. Bala 1990 An Integrated Rural Energy Model for a Village in Bangladesh Energy 15 2 131-139 An Integrated Rural Energy Model for a Village in Bangladesh Huq's rural energy model, System dynamics simulation, Integrated food and biogas production, Quality of life and policy analysis. 101 Conference Proceedings Prikka-Matti P. Alanne;Anil B. Jambekar 1996 Putting Systems Thinking to Use: A Case Study George P. Richardson;John D. Sterman 1996 International System Dynamics Conference Cambridge, Massachusetts System Dynamics Society 1 2 9-12 Putting Systems Thinking to Use: A Case Study 102 Conference Proceedings Tullio Albertini;David Born 1977 Assessing Alternatives for Improving Dental Care Through Computer Simulation 105th Annual Meeting American Public Health Assoc. Assessing Alternatives for Improving Dental Care Through Computer Simulation 104 Journal Article Peter S. Albin 1987 Microeconomic Foundations of Cyclical Irregularities or `Chaos' Mathematical Social Sciences 13 3 185-214 Microeconomic Foundations of Cyclical Irregularities or `Chaos' Mathematical Social Sciences Economic Problems; Cyclical Processes; Models; chaos phenomena/economics, irregular macroeconomic behavior, microeconomic model; sociology of business- sociology of business; 103 Report Stephanie Albin;Nan Lux How to Download Road Maps from the Internet MIT How to Download Road Maps from the Internet D-4662 Publication Ordering; System Dynamics Group; E60-375; MIT; Cambridge, MA 02139; U.S.A. 6781 Conference Proceedings Mahmood Alborzi 2002 Using System Dynamics to Simulate Reliability Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Computing the reliability of complex systems is often a single period computation. Using system dynamics methodology, we may simulate reliability of complex systems through time to gain a dynamic view of the system behavior. Here the failure rate of each component is treated as a rate variable, and its reliability figure as a level variable, linked together through appropriate auxiliary variables. Modeling the relationships between the components of a complex system using system dynamics in this way, one may observe and analyze the dynamic behavior of the system through time to make appropriate policy decisions. Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print July 28 - August 1 Using System Dynamics to Simulate Reliability ISBN 0967291461 mahmood_alborzi@yahoo.com; Petroleum University of Technology; Sattarkhan Ave.; Khosrow Jonoobi Street; 14537 Tehran Iran 8166 Conference Proceedings Mahmood Alborzi 2006 Implanting Neural Network Elements in System Dynamics Models to Surrogate Rate and Auxiliary Variables Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Nijmegen, The Netherlands The System Dynamics Society 42 Implanting Neural Network Elements in System Dynamics Models to Surrogate Rate and Auxiliary Variables Rate variables and auxiliary variables in System Dynamics models are normally constructed using functional equations and or table functions. To construct functions, however, it is imperative to know the underlying relation between the independent variables and the dependent variable. This we know is not always an easy task. Indeed, in many differentially non-linear or chaotic situations this may be totally impossible. One may have to resort to less accurate representations if constrained to write relations as equations or tables. Neural Networks has been deployed in many fields to capture the underlying structural relations between variables in such situations through training schemes. When trained, Neural Networks may achieve generalization capabilities though literarily as black boxes. As Neural Networks models when trained can work online like a function, they can be easily implanted within System Dynamics models to compute rates or auxiliary variables. The idea in this article is, in situations were it is not possible or it is considerably difficult to construct explicit functions or tables, to deploy Neural Networks to surrogate fuctions. Neural Network models, here called elements, can be trained on actual data to capture the underlying functional relationships between input output variables and implanted as rates or auxiliary variables to carry out computation on line. 7663 Conference Proceedings Lise Albrechtsen;John E. Fa;Pål I. Davidsen;David W. Macdonald 2004 Making Bushmeat Hunting Sustainable : Economic Incentives or Draconian Measures? 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Oxford, England The System Dynamics Society Michael Kennedy;Graham W. Winch;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe;Joan M. Yanni print/cd-rom July 25-29 Making Bushmeat Hunting Sustainable : Economic Incentives or Draconian Measures? Central African peoples have been and still are very dependent on the natural resources they collect from the forest. One of these resources is wild meat (bushmeat), which is hunted in large quantities. Offtake of several species are currently higher than their reproduction rate. In the long run, this will become a conservation crisis on the one hand with the possible extinction of several endemic species, while on the other hand the survival and quality of life of the people dependent on these resources are jeopardized. A dynamic programming model is developed to introduce a method to show explicitly the impact of different policies on the animal population dynamics, the effectiveness of bushmeat hunting, price of bushmeat in the market, and the availability of alternative work opportunities for the hunters. The paper concludes with the simulation of three different policy recommendations for managing bushmeat trade. The model and its simulation show an interesting perspective of the complexity of the wild meat extraction issue. No one single policy will be able to alter the current pattern of unsustainable use – only a combination of policies and other measures will have a chance of succeeding with the conservation of the Central African fauna. Lise Albrechtsen; lise.albrechtsen@zoo.ox.ac.uk; University of Oxford; WildCRU Dept of Zoology; South Parks Road; Oxford OX1 3PS UK; John E. Fa; jfa@durrell.org; Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust; Les Augrés Manor Trinity; Trinity Jersey JE3 5BP; English Channel Islands UK; Pål I. Davidsen; davidsen@ifi.uib.no; University of Bergen; Information Science Department; Hermann Fossgt 6; 5020 Bergen Norway; David W. Macdonald; david.macdonald@zoo.ox.ac.uk; Wildlife Conservation Research Unit; Department of Zoology; South Parks Road; Oxford OX1 3JA UK 6801 Conference Proceedings Bahaa Eldin Aly Abdel Aleem;Dahlia M. Rasmy 2002 The War on Terrorism : Conditions for Success and Failure Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 The War on Terrorism : Conditions for Success and Failure Though terrorism has been a problem for decades, now it has developed both in size and sophistication to a terrifying extent. The 11th of September attacks on various targets in the U.S.A. are living evidence of this. These radical developments raise serious questions about the effectiveness of the counterterrorism scenarios used until the 11th of September. This simulation-based study inspects the effectiveness of the American reaction to the 11th of September events. The model simulates the war from its beginning till the elapse of two months, a period in which major military operations took place. The model shows the behavior of the Americans during the war as well as various behaviors including those of the terrorists, western media coverage and the Arab and Islamic world. Analysis of the model reveals the reasons why the war has failed in achieving some of its major goals and suggests a more effective strategy. ISBN 0967291461 Bahaa Eldin Aly Abdel Aleem; baleem@idsc.net.eg; Dahlia M. Rasmy; darasmy@iti-idsc.gov.eg; Information Technology Institute; 4 Ahmed El-haseb St; Apartment 10; Roda Cairo Egypt 105 Journal Article Elena I. Alekseeva;Valery M. Kirzhner 1994 Migration on Networks and its Stability Consequences System Dynamics Review 10 1 63-85 Migration on Networks and its Stability Consequences 7076 Conference Proceedings Angelo Alessandri 2002 System Dynamics and Applications of Optimization Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe Special Sessions print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 System Dynamics and Applications of Optimization From the fifties, numerous optimization methods have been proposed and have increasingly obtained successes so as to become an essential component of support decision systems in many areas, including, among others, economy, control, and telecommunication. Many numerical packages for optimization are available and have reached a wide diffusion in all the scientific communities. This context has suggested to focus on the role of optimization in system dynamics. Optimization in system dynamics is used for two main purposes, i.e., model identification and policy gauging. Optimization allows one to deal with difficult problems for which exact analytical solutions are hard to find for theoretical and practical reasons. In this prospect, the session aims at bringing together different experiences gained in facing some of these problems regarding system dynamics' applications. ISBN 0967291461 Angelo Alessandri; angelo@ian.ge.cnr.it; Intelligent Systems and Automation; Via De Marini 6; 16149 Genova Italy 6782 Conference Proceedings Angelo Alessandri;Cristiano Cervllera;Filippo Grassia 2002 Optimal Neural Feedback Control for Carbon Tax Policy Gauging in Transportation Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 Optimal Neural Feedback Control for Carbon Tax Policy Gauging in Transportation The effects of carbon emissions have been the objective of an investigation that was based on the model of the nation-wide transportation system with railway, waterway, and roadway. The dynamics of such a complex phenomenon depends on a set of control variables (i.e., the percentage of carbon tax on the fuel cost, the operational cost coverages, and growth rates of the various transportation modes) that can be chosen in a suitable way so as to minimize a given cost function (e.g., carbon emissions, public and private costs, fuel consumption, etc.). This problem has been addressed by searching for a feedback control law that can be approximated by means of the combination of both Dynamic Programming and neural networks. Preliminary simulation results with the afore-mentioned model are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. ISBN 0967291461 Angelo Alessandri; angelo@ian.ge.cnr.it; IAN-CNR National Research Council; Intelligent Systems and Automation; Via De Marini 6; 16149 Genova Italy; Cristiano Cervellera; cristiano.cervellera@dist.unige.it; University of Genoa; Dept of Communications Computer Sci; Via Opera Pia 13; 16145 Genova Italy; Filippo Grassia; filippo@ian.ge.cnr.it; IAN-CNR National Research Council; Intelligent Systems and Automation; Via De Marini 6; 16149 Genova Italy 5783 Journal Article Stephen M. Alessi 2000 Symposium Issue: System Dynamics and Interactive Learning Environments, Part 1 - Designing Educational Support in System-Dynamics-Based Interactive Learning Environments Simulation & gaming 31 2 178 Symposium Issue: System Dynamics and Interactive Learning Environments, Part 1 - Designing Educational Support in System-Dynamics-Based Interactive Learning Environments Simulation & games ISSN: 1046-8781 6791 Journal Article Stephen M. Alessi 2000 Designing Educational Support in System-Dynamics-Based Interactive Leraning Environments Simulation and Gaming 31 2 178-196 Designing Educational Support in System-Dynamics-Based Interactive Leraning Environments 6780 Conference Proceedings Stephen M. Alessi 2002 Model Transparency in Educational System Dynamics Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Palermo, Italy The System Dynamics Society Pål I. Davidsen;Edoardo Mollona;Vedat G. Diker;Robin S. Langer;Jennifer I. Rowe print/cd-rom July 28 - August 1 Model Transparency in Educational System Dynamics Model transparency is increasingly identified as a positive or even necessary characteristic of system-dynamics-based learning environments, where model transparency is usually identified as providing modified causal-loop diagrams, equations, or verbal descriptions of a model. The theses of this presentation are: (1) Model transparency may be beneficial for some educational goals and conditions, but model opacity may be beneficial for others. (2) Model transparency is a continuum (from transparent to opaque) and is multidimensional (for different aspects of a model, such as its variables, stock-flow combinations, and cause-effect relationships). (3) There are many methods of providing information about a model, and these too will depend on the goals and other characteristics of a learning environment. Rather than seeking to prove that model transparency is valuable, system dynamics researchers should be elaborating on how goals and other conditions determine optimal levels and methods of transparency. ISBN 0967291461 steve-alessi@uiowa.edu; University of Iowa; 370 Lindquist Center; Iowa City IA 52242 USA 106 Conference Proceedings William Alexander 1996 Efficiency in Sustainability - The Efficient Life Styles of Kerala George P. Richardson;John D. Sterman 1996 International System Dynamics Conference Cambridge, Massachusetts System Dynamics Society 1 2 13-15 Efficiency in Sustainability - The Efficient Life Styles of Kerala 107 Thesis C. Alexandre 1976 Contribution à une Modélization de la Croissance du Système Urbain Français (1941-1975) Université de Toulouse le Mirail Thèse de Doctorat de 3ème Cycle en Etudes Urbaines Contribution à une Modélization de la Croissance du Système Urbain Français (1941-1975) Urban dynamics 108 Journal Article Herb A. Alf 1981 Creative system dynamics: A post-Newtonian model of psychology Creative Child & Adult Quarterly 6 4 234-251 Creative system dynamics: A post-Newtonian model of psychology Creative Child & Adult Quarterly CREATIVITY; stimulus-creativity-response model of psychology of H. A. Alf HISTORY & PHILOSOPHIES & THEORIES 111 Book Section Louis E. Alfeld 1974 Urban Dynamics and Its Critics Nathaniel J. Mass Readings in Urban Dynamics Cambridge MA Productivity Press 1 115-120 Urban Dynamics and Its Critics Ch 10. Originally published by Wright-Allen Press and MIT Press. 112 Book Section Louis E. Alfeld 1975 Urban Dynamics Applied to an Old Industrial City Walter W. Schroeder, III;Robert E. Sweeney;Louis E. Alfeld Readings in Urban Dynamics Cambridge MA Productivity Press 2 2 203-218 Urban Dynamics Applied to an Old Industrial City Ch. 11. Originally published by Wright-Allen Press and MIT Press. 115 Conference Proceedings Louis E. Alfeld 1996 Dynamic Simulation of Rural Social and Economic Interaction George P. Richardson;John D. Sterman 1996 International System Dynamics Conference Cambridge, Massachusetts System Dynamics Society 1 2 16-19 Dynamic Simulation of Rural Social and Economic Interaction 5796 Report Louis E. Alfeld;R. Evan Ellis;William S. Shepherd 1997 Dynamics of Aircraft Aging (In-house paper) Bethesda, MD Decision Dynamics, Inc 18 Internal Dynamics of Aircraft Aging (In-house paper) System Dynamics, Air Force, Aircraft, Logistics, Life Cycles Extending the life of aging aircraft depends upon many tradeoffs among cost, performance and economic variables. Computer simulation models offer one means to quantify some of the tradeoffs and to support decision-making. This paper describes one such model, called Fleetsight(TM) Decision Dynamics, Inc. (DDI) is developing FleetSight(TM) for the United States Air Force (USAF) ASCIXRSM under the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Program. DDI and Air Mobility Command (AMC) are working together to apply FleetSightTM to three USAF aging aircraft programs. the KC-l 35, the C-S and the C-I 30. Fleetsight(TM) provides a long-term, strategic-level view of the dynamics of aircraft aging. FleetSightTM simulates the dynamic behavior of an aging air fleet over a 20 to 40-year period, tracking the gradual deterioration in systems and components as they succumb to the forces of aging, technological obsolescence and operational stresses. Aging may be slowed, or even temporarily reversed, through aggressive maintenance and upgrade programs. Eventually, however, increasing unscheduled maintenance problems ground a larger fraction of the fleet, undercutting mission performance. Within the limits set by the long-term dynamic behavior of the system, Fleetsight(TM) allows program users to define and test alternative "what-if?" scenarios. Such "what-if?" scenarios trace the consequences among competing policy options, quantify the impact of specific decisions, and test the sensitivity of system response to different parameter assumptions. Fleetsight(TM) offers an innovative simulation tool for designing long-term resource allocation strategies to support aging aircraft fleets. The paper opens with a description of the causal relationships within the model, showing how the relationships interlink to form a rich feedback structure. The modeling methodology, called system dynamics, simulates the dynamic behavior of the system as each element interacts with the others. The primary driver underlying system behavior is the aging process, represented in the model by changes in the average distribution of aircraft and components along a spectrum from new to old. Simulations of the model reveal its baseline behavior and demonstrate how "what-if?" scenarios may be used to quantify the impact of alternative policy options. After presenting the model as a single entity, the paper then describes the model's hierarchical structure, which can represent aircraft and components to deeper levels of detail so as to model the spares cycle. A discussion of th