11th MIT-UAlbany System Dynamics Research Colloquium
| Date: | Friday, October 14, and Saturday, October 15, 2005 |
| Location: | Page Hall Lounge Rockefeller College of Public Affairs andPolicy University at Albany 135 Western Ave. Albany, NY 12222 |
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Time |
Presentation |
Speaker |
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FRIDAY |
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9:00 |
Networking and Coffee |
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9:45 |
Welcome and Opening Remarks |
Hyunjung Kim |
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10:00 |
The Federalism Challenge for Extreme Event Policy Design |
Michael Deegan (UAlbany) |
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10:45 |
Small Unbaked Idea Session |
Cristina Giosue (Cornell) |
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11:30 |
Dynamics of Capital Structure |
Christopher Johnson and Onur Dulgeroglu (GE) |
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12:15 |
Networking over Lunch |
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13:00 |
Small Unbaked Idea Session |
Sasha Lubyansky (UAlbany) |
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13:45 |
Mapping the impact pathways: how management research can be relevant? |
Hazhir Rahmandad (MIT) |
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14:30 |
Small Unbaked Idea Session In the Eye of the Storm--Hurricane Mitigation |
Ryan Taylor, Ajish George, and Melissa Peterson (UAlbany) |
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15:15 |
Networking and Coffee |
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15:30 |
Hydrogen Transition Challenge: co- evolutionary dynamics between alternative fuel vehicle demand and fueling infrastructure |
Jeroen Struben (MIT) |
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16:15 |
Discussion Session The Goal and the Future of the Colloquium |
David Andersen (UAlbany) |
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17:00 |
Closeing Remarks and Adjourn |
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18:00 |
Dinner at Andersen’s |
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SATURDAY High Peaks Adventure in the Adirondacks |
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Presentation Abstracts
Michael Deegan
University at Albany
The Federalism Challenge for Extreme Event Policy Design
Natural hazards in vulnerable communities cost United States taxpayers billions of dollars each year. In fact, some research suggests the taxpayer burden of relief and recovery is nearly 500 million dollars a week. The flood hazard is one of the most costly and pervasive natural hazard in this country. Since the risks of these extreme events are not evenly distributed throughout the states nor are they predictable in any given year, the hazard presents difficult challenges in a highly decentralized federalism system.
Since the 1950s, the federal government has enacted several policies to deal with threats imposed by natural hazards. The early policies had a paternalistic tone, favoring federal relief after disaster and federal projects (e.g., levees, and seawalls) to mitigate and protect communities before an event. Later research showed that levees encourage development in these “protected” floodplains. The “levee effect” can create a sense of security in these communities, a sense that could be false in a flood of record. Over time, federal policies would encourage state and local governments to share the burden by developing plans in favor of mitigation at the community level (e.g., zoning and building code enforcement).
While the federal government would prefer that each community take an active role in hazard mitigation planning, the reality is much different. The level of commitment and capacity for mitigation planning varies from state to state and from community to community within each state. In part, one might argue that the current incentives do not encourage the “buy in” from local communities that the federal government desires. One might also argue that where state involvement is low, the local agenda for hazards is nonexistent, which may explain why local governments continue to focus on relief and recovery instead of mitigation. The conceptual model developed for this research identifies the federalism challenges in this problem. In the base run, the model simulates the “levee effect” for a community in potential hazard of an extreme event.
In this discussion, I would like to explore a few ways I may wish to build confidence in the structure and behavior of the model. For my dissertation, I will be able to interview a few hazards experts who are very familiar with the policy options, but not familiar with system dynamics. With your help, I would like to develop an effective strategy for interviewing these informants.
Cornell
The dynamics of milk production and qualitative characteristics of milk of the Cinisara cow, (a local Sicilian breed raised in a pasture-based production system) and possible intertemporal relationships with the characteristics of Caciocavallo palermitano cheese. (This is a Sicilian variety of cheese that is not qualified as PDO, but has been recently included under the protection of Slow Food Association.) This cheese is made according to traditional methods, and its qualitative characteristics are extremely variable. Often in summer, which is a tourist period marked by a high demand for local products, cheese production is not sufficient because the climatic conditions make the grazing resource and the resulting milk production extremely low. In fact, Cinisara cows are raised in marginal hilly areas of Sicily, where precipitation is generally low and irregular throughout the autumn-winter season. These climatic conditions are the main constrains to reproductive management (and thus, milk production). The objective of the research is to characterize the cheese in different seasons and examine biophysical and economic effects of modifying the seasonality of milk production and processing of cheese during the year. Studies under way are have identified linkages between between the nature of pasture and the chemical, physical and technological characteristics of the cheese. A dynamic characterization is likely to be difficult when the system continuously changes!
Christopher Johnson and Onur Dulgeroglu
General Electric
Dynamics of Capital Structure
MIT
Mapping the impact pathways: how management research can be relevant?
What makes our research relevant? This question is important not only for those
in the field of system dynamics, but also for management scholars in general.
Traditionally, most System Dynamicists aimed at doing research with high
real-world impact, on the other hand there is growing consensus among
management scholars that the impact of management research is negligible. The
calls for increasing the relevance of research are often directly translated
into call for doing some kind of consulting projects. In this presentation I
discuss some early thoughts for mapping the pathways for research to impact
real-world practice, draw some parallels between natural and social sciences,
and argue for importance of introduction of design mindset in the social
science research. Finally I discuss implications for what can make the
social-science research, particularly management research, more relevant to the
real world.
Ryan Taylor, Ajish George, and Melissa Peterson
University at Albany
In the Eye of the Storm--Hurricane Mitigation
MIT
Hydrogen Transition Challenge: co- evolutionary dynamics between alternative fuel vehicle demand and fueling infrastructure
This paper explores the co-evolutionary interdependence between hydrogen vehicle demand and the requisite hydrogen refueling station coverage. The analysis is based on a dynamic, spatially-explicit behavioral model capturing consumer and industry decision-making processes. Understanding the dynamic inter-dependence of vehicles and refueling stations is vital to developing effective transition strategies that will support the emergence of a self-sustaining hydrogen-based transportation system. To date, attempts to achieve widespread adoption of alternative-fuel vehicles have been largely ineffective, underscoring the difficulty of such transitions and the importance of a thorough understanding of these co-evolutionary processes.
Dynamics resulting from local supply-demand interactions with strategic location of refueling stations are explored in depth. Scenarios played mapped on California give insight in the challenges for adoption. Growth of vehicle demand and refueling station coverage is analyzed under various heterogeneous socio-economic and demographic conditions. The formation of adoption clusters is revealed as an important mechanism for market formation. While locally speeding adoption, this same micro-mechanism can obstruct the emergence of a large self-sustaining market. TFurther, sensitivity analyses of the growth of vehicle demand and refueling station coverage to different model parameters and assumptions are performed.
The model can be used to develop and compare targeted strategies for hydrogen refueling station coverage and hydrogen vehicle introduction. Such strategies include, but are not limited to, both technology and policy alternatives. Further, the transition to a hydrogen-based transportation system is subject to myriad of other ‘chicken-and-egg’ mechanisms that interact in a highly integrated and non-linear fashion (e.g., consumer awareness and acceptance of hydrogen technology, vehicle performance and cost, etc.). Extensions to consider these and other factors that contribute to the dynamic complexity of market formation are discussed.