10th MIT-UAlbany System Dynamics Research Colloquium
|
Time |
Presentation |
Speaker |
|
9:00 |
Informal Gathering - Coffee |
|
|
9:45 |
Welcome and Opening Remarks |
Sasha Lubyansky & Tim Quinn |
|
10:00 |
Uncovering Model Structure: Behavior Relations in Complex Nonlinear Models |
Burak Güneralp (Univ of Illinois) |
|
10:45 |
Dynamic Safety and Risk Management in Complex Socio-Technical Systems |
Nicolas Dulac (MIT) |
|
11:30 |
Transportation Systems Analysis |
Maggie Cusack (Albany) |
|
12:15 |
Lunch |
|
|
13:00 |
Polio Risk Management after Global Eradication: A Dynamic Decision Analysis |
Radboud Duintjer Tebbens (Harvard) |
|
13:45 |
Participation Decisions in Federal Conservation Programs |
Joe Schultz (Cornell) |
|
14:30 |
The Dynamics of Ethnic Terrorism |
Bahadır Akçam (Albany) |
|
15:15 |
Coffee Break |
|
|
15:30 |
Dynamics of Resource Sharing |
Charlie Lertpattarapong (MIT) |
|
16:15 |
Understanding the Dynamics of Coastal Resource Management: Exploring Past Experience and Moving Toward an Ecosystem Management Approach |
Don Robadue (Albany) |
|
17:00 |
TBD |
TBD |
|
17:45 |
Closing Remarks |
|
|
18:00 |
Adjourn |
|
Presentation Abstracts
Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Uncovering Model Structure: Behavior Relations in Complex Nonlinear Models
Aeronautics and Astronautics
MIT
Dynamic Safety and Risk Management in Complex Socio-Technical Systems
The thesis of this research is that new methods of modeling safety and risk are required to handle accidents in complex socio-technical systems. In particular these methods must be systemic and dynamic as accidents in complex socio-technical systems often result from a slow migration of the entire system to a state of high risk. To evaluate this hypothesis, we created a model of the current NASA manned space program including the safety engineering, assessment, review, and dynamic decision-making processes as well as the pressures and influences and other risk factors that created the conditions existing prior to the Challenger and Columbia losses and contributing to these accidents. The goal of the modeling is to determine how to "engineer" lasting improvement. Such modeling and analysis can provide insight into the implications and relationships among the causal factors of the Shuttle accidents and into the long-term effectiveness of various possible changes to improve safety in complex systems.
Maggie Cusack
Information Science
University at Albany, SUNY
Transportation Systems Analysis
Radboud Duintjer Tebbens
Health Policy and Management
Harvard University School of Public Health
Polio Risk Management after Global Eradication: A Dynamic Decision Analysis
Applied Economics and Management
Cornell University
Participation Decisions in Federal Conservation Programs
Agricultural policy-makers continue to model program participation decisions using unrealistic assumptions based on expected utility theory. Unexpected participation behavior in a recent federal conservation programs has demonstrated the need for alternative decision-making assumptions and modeling techniques. A more realistic explanation is needed to understand the complexities of farmers decision making processes. The objective of this research project is to model the participation decisions of a representative NY dairy farmer in order to gain insight for conservation program design and implementation. This model includes the effects of bio-physical processes on farm profitability, farmers ability to gather and utilize information, and the subsequent role of incentives on farmers decisions to participate. Insights from the model will be used to make policy recommendations for future iterations of conservation programs.
Bahadır Akçam
Information Science
University at Albany, SUNY
The Dynamics of Ethnic Terrorism
Despite the fact that much of recent terror is ethno-nationally based, little attention has been paid to systematically explaining ethnic violence. We propose to build on the work done by the Minorities at Risk Project (MAR) and apply the model and the data to the issue of ethnic terror using systems dynamics approach. While there has been important work done using MAR to explore ethnic violence as a base using statistics and qualitative analysis (for examples of both see Gurr (2000) there has been no work exploring ethnic terrorism specifically and none that has exploited systems dynamics as an analytical tool. The application of a systems dynamics approach should help us go beyond some of the limitations of statistical analysis to explore how government policy and ethno-nationalist terrorism feed of each other in a cycle of violence, discrimination and repression.
Engineering Systems Division
MIT
Dynamics of Resource Sharing
Supply chain dynamic instability has been studied by academics in various fields such as economics, operations management, system dynamics, and engineering. Unstable dynamic behaviors include demand cyclicality, oscillations in production and inventory levels, demand amplifications, and the bullwhip effect. While most previous work has focused on the dynamic behaviors of one supply chain, the purpose of this paper is to the study dynamic behaviors (especially oscillations) of two supply chains coupled through a shared capacity (such as material, production, etc.). When a shared capacity resource is constrained, the resource manager needs to reallocate its capacity to serve downstream customers who may not receive the capacity amount of their original requests. The model and analyses illustrate that this reallocation can influence the phases, amplitudes, and frequencies of both coupled supply chains oscillatory behaviors.
Information Science
University at Albany, SUNY
Understanding the Dynamics of Coastal Resource Management: Exploring Past Experience and Moving Toward an Ecosystem Management Approach
System dynamics concepts and methods are rarely referenced in the field of coastal resources management, even though coastal systems and decision-making are dynamically complex and the SD literature offers a rich and relevant body of theory, practice and models. Recent work in the theory of ecosystem management calls for the use of modeling and is becoming of increasing interest to coastal managers. A simple stock and flow model of coastal management is presented that is drawn from the legislative design of one of the oldest and more successful U.S. state programs, Rhode Islands Coastal Resources Management Program. This model produces several dynamic behaviors familiar to coastal managers. The results are compared in general terms with data from the 35 year Rhode Island experience, and utilized to suggest approaches for the state program as it enters the new century as well as offer guidance for fledgling coastal programs in developing countries.
Colloquium Attendees
|
Name |
Family Name |
|
Organization |
Status/Title |
|
Allen |
Boorstein |
Amber Blocks |
Executive |
|
|
Bradley |
Morrison |
jbm@kurtsalmon.com |
Brandeis |
Professor |
|
Chester |
Labedz |
Boston College |
Ph.D. Student |
|
|
Liping |
Duan |
ld43@cornell.edu |
Cornell |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Gregory |
Lawrence |
gwl1@cornell.edu |
Cornell |
Researcher |
|
Paul |
Newton |
pcn4@cornell.edu |
Cornell |
Professor |
|
Joseph |
Schultz |
jas123@cornell.edu |
Cornell |
M.S. Student |
|
Radboud |
Duintjer Tebbens |
rduintje@hsph.harvard.edu |
Harvard |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Kimberly |
Thompson |
kimt@hsph.harvard.edu |
Harvard |
Professor |
|
Jason |
Black |
jwblack@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Gökhan |
Doğan |
gdogan@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Nicolas |
Dulac |
ndulac@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Andjelka (Angie) |
Kelic |
sly@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Chalermmon (Charlie) |
Lertpattarapong |
clertpat@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Daniel |
McCarthy |
djmc@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
James (Jim) |
McFarland |
jrm1@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Nicholas |
McKenna |
nickmck@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Timothy |
Quinn |
tdquinn@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Hazhir |
Rahmandad |
hazhir@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Nelson |
Repenning |
nelson@mit.edu |
MIT |
Professor |
|
Katherine |
Steel |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
|
John |
Sterman |
jsterman@mit.edu |
MIT |
Professor |
|
Jeroen |
Struben |
jjrs@mit.edu |
MIT |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Thomas |
Corbet |
tfcorbe@sandia.gov |
Sandia Nat'l Lab |
Researcher |
|
Rashad |
Raynor |
rraynor@sandia.gov |
Sandia Nat'l Lab |
Researcher |
|
Bahadır |
Akçam |
ba145531@albany.edu |
SUNY-Albany |
Ph.D. Student |
|
David |
Andersen |
david.andersen@albany.edu |
SUNY-Albany |
Professor |
|
Maggie |
Cusack |
mcusack@dot.state.ny.us |
SUNY-Albany |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Michael |
Deegan |
mdeegan@yahoo.com |
SUNY-Albany |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Hyunjung |
Kim |
hk8459@albany.edu |
SUNY-Albany |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Alexander (Sasha) |
Lubyansky |
al8295@albany.edu |
SUNY-Albany |
Ph.D. Student |
|
George |
Richardson |
gpr@albany.edu |
SUNY-Albany |
Professor |
|
Donald |
Robadue |
robadue@gso.uri.edu |
SUNY-Albany |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Ryan |
Taylor |
SUNY-Albany |
Ph.D. Student |
|
|
Charles (Skuk) |
Jones |
skuk_jones@yahoo.com |
UMass-Boston |
Ph.D. Student |
|
Burak |
Güneralp |
guneralp@uiuc.edu |
University of Illinois |
Ph.D. Student |