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    Bibliography for System Dynamics and Energy Modeling

    Alternative Energy Systems. 1993. An Overview of the IDEAS Model: A Dynamic Long-Term Policy Simulation of U.S. Energy Supply and Demand. AES Corporation. 1001 North 19th Street. Arlington, VA 22209.

    Aslam, Javaid and Khalid Saeed. 1995. "Electricity Conservation in Domestic Sector of Pakistan: A System Dynamics Approach." pp. 333-341. In: Toshiro Shimada and Khalid Saeed, eds. Proceedings of the 1995 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Gakushuin University. Tokyo, Japan. July 30-August 4, 1995.

    Backus, George A. 1981. DEMAND81: National Energy Policy Model. Four Volumes. AFC 7-10. School of Industrial Engineering. Purdue University. West Lafayette, Indiana.

    Backus, George A. 1977. FOSSIL1: Documentation. DSD #86. Resource Policy Center. Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755.

    Backus, George A., Jeffrey Green and Anthony Masevice. 1979. FOSSIL79: Documentation. Three Volumes. DSD #166. Resource Policy Center. Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire 03755.

    Behrens, William W., III. 1973. "The Dynamics of Natural Resource Utilization." pp. 141-164. In: Donnella H. Meadows and Dennis L. Meadows, eds. Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press.

    Behrens, William W., III. 1971. The Dynamics of Natural Resource Utilization. Master's Thesis Submitted to the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Cambridge, MA 02139.

    Bull, Mike, Andrew Ford, and Roger Naill. 1985. "The Importance of Feedback in the Pacific Northwest Electric Conservation Planning Model." pp. 85-101. In: Merrill E. Warkentin, ed. Proceedings of the 1985 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Keystone, Colorado.

    Bunn, Derek W. and Erik R. Larsen. 1995. "Strategic and Regulatory Risk." Working Paper. London Business School. Sussex Place. Regent's Park. London NW1 4SA. United Kingdom.

    Bunn, Derek W. and Erik R. Larsen. 1994. "Assessment of the Uncertainty in Future UK Electricity Investment Using an Industry Simulation Model." Utilities Policy 4(3): 229-236.

    Bunn, Derek W. and Erik R. Larsen. 1992. "Sensitivity of Reserve Margin to Factors Influencing Investment Behavior in the Electricity Market of England and Wales." Energy Policy (May): 420-429.

    Bunn, Derek W., Erik R. Larsen, and Kiriakos Vlahos. 1993. "Complementary Modelling Approaches for Analysing Several Effects of Privatization on Electricity Investment." Journal of the Operational Research Society 44(10): 957-971.

    Choucri, Nazli. 1981. International Energy Futures: Petroleum Prices, Power, and Payments. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Coyle, R. Geoffrey. 1985. "Representing Discrete Events in System Dynamics Models: A Theoretical Application to Modelling Coal Production." Journal of the Operations Research Society 36(April): 307-318.

    Coyle, R. G. and Juan C. Rego. 1983. "Scenario and Policy Evaluation in Electrical Supply Decisions: The Argentine Case." pp. 702-715. In: John D. W. Morecroft, David F. Andersen and John D. Sterman, eds. Proceedings of the 1983 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

    Davidsen, Pål I., John D. Sterman, and George P. Richardson. 1990. "A Petroleum Life Cycle Model for the United States with Endogenous Technology, Exploration, Recovery, and Demand." System Dynamics Review 6(1): 66-93.

    De Geus, Arie P. 1988. "Planning as Learning." Harvard Business Review 66(2): 70-74.

    Duncan, Richard C. 1996a. "Mexico's Petroleum Exports: Safe Collateral for a $50 Billion Loan? Manuscript available from the Institute on Energy and Man. 3821 NE 45th. #37. Seattle, WA 98105.

    Duncan, Richard C. 1996b. "The Mexican Petroleum 'Play' in Two 'Acts:' Taking Hold of Oil Production Data." pp. 141-144. In George P. Richardson and John D. Sterman, eds. Proceedings of the 1996 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cambridge, Massachusetts.

    Dyner, Isaac, I. M. Giraldo, A. Moreno, D. Valencia, and A. Lobo. 1990. "Regional Energy Planning." pp. 333-340. In: David F. Andersen, George P. Richardson and John D. Sterman, eds. Proceedings of the 1990 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

    Fiddaman, Thomas S. 1997. Feeedback Complexity in Integrated Climate-Economy Models. Doctoral Thesis Submitted to the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Cambridge, MA 02139.

    Ford, Andrew. 1997. "System Dynamics and the Electric Power Industry." System Dynamics Review 13(1): 57-85.

    Ford, Andrew. 1996a. "Testing the Snake River Explorer." System Dynamics Review 12(4): 305-329.

    Ford, Andrew. 1996b. "Electric Vehicles: The Case For (and Against) Incentives." Public Utilities Fortnightly (April 15).

    Ford, Andrew. 1995a. "Simulating the Controllability of Feebates." System Dynamics Review 11(1): 3-29.

    Ford, Andrew. 1995b. "System Dynamics and the Sustainable Development of the Electric Power Industry." pp. 60-73. In: Toshiro Shimada and Khalid Saeed, eds. Proceedings of the 1995 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Gakushuin University. Tokyo, Japan. July 30-August 4, 1995.

    Ford, Andrew. 1994. "Electric Vehicles and the Electric Utility Company." Energy Policy 22(7).

    Ford, Andrew, Michael Bull, and Roger Naill. 1989. "Bonneville's Conservation Policy Analysis Models." Energy Policy 15(2): 109-124.

    Ford, Andrew and Michael Bull. 1989. "Using System Dynamics for Conservation Policy Analysis in the Pacific Northwest." System Dynamics Review 5(1): 1-16.

    Ford, Andrew, and Greg Mann. 1983. "Summary of the Workshop on Regulatory-Financial Models of the US Electric Utility Industry." Report LA-9815-C. Los Alamos National Laboratory. Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545.

    Ford, Andrew and Annette Youngblood. 1983. "Simulating the Spiral of Impossibility in the Electric Utility Industry." Energy Policy (March).

    Ford, Andrew and Annette Youngblood. 1982. "Technical Documentation of the Electric Utility Policy and Planning Analysis Model, Version 4." Report LA-9347-MS. Los Alamos National Laboratory. Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545.

    Ford, Andrew. 1975. A Dynamic Model of the U.S. Electric Utility Industry. Doctoral Thesis Submitted to the Thayer School of Engineering. DSD #28, 31. Dartmouth College. Hanover, New Hampshire 03755.

    Forrester, Jay W. 1970. World Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Forrester, Jay W. 1961. Industrial Dynamics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    FOSSIL2: Energy Policy Model Documentation. 1980. Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. Department of Energy Contract No. AC01-79PE70143. Assistant Secretary for Policy, Planning and Analysis. Washington, D.C. 20585.

    Genta, Peter J. and Neville Sokol. 1993. "Applying a Systems Thinking Approach to Business Process Re-Engineering: A Case Study of a Canadian Oil and Gas Producer." pp. 142-151. In: Enrique Zepeda and José A. D. Machuca, eds. The Role of Strategic Modelling in International Competitiveness: Proceedings of the 1993 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cancún, Mexico. July 19-25.

    Geraghty, Dominic M. and James M Lyneis. 1985. "Feedback Loops: The Effect of External Agents on Utility Performance." pp. 249-267. In: Strategic Management and Planning for Electric Utilities. J. Plummer, E. Oatman, and P. Gupta, eds. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.

    Geraghty, Dominic M. and James M Lyneis. 1983. "Regulatory Policy and the Performance of Electric Utilities: A System Dynamics Analysis." pp. 613-638. In: John D. W. Morecroft, David F. Andersen and John D. Sterman, eds. Proceedings of the 1983 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

    Hubbert, M. King. 1993. "Exponential Growth as a Transient Phenomenon in Human History." pp. 113-126. In Herman E. Daly and Kenneth N. Townsend, eds. Valuing the Earth: Economics, Ecology, Ethics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

    Hubbert, M. King. 1956. "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels." p.p. 7-25. In: Drilling and Production Practice. Washington, DC: American Petroleum Institute.

    Hubbert, M. King. 1950. "Energy from Fossil Fuels." In Annual Report of the Smithsonian Institution. pp. 255-271.

    Kinek, Patrick and Anil B. Jambekar. 1984a. "The Effects of Government's Permitting and Bonding Review Process on Small Surface Coal Operations." Materials and Society 8(1): 71-82

    Kinek, Patrick and Anil B. Jambekar. 1984b. "Simulations of Small Surface Coal Operations." Simulation 42(3).

    Kinek, Patrick and Anil B. Jambekar. 1983. "Modeling Small Surface Coal Operations." pp. 439-451. In: John D. W. Morecroft, David F. Andersen and John D. Sterman, eds. Proceedings of the 1983 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

    Khalil, Yehia H. and Michael J. Radzicki. 1996. "The Dynamics of the Zero Emission Vehicle Industry." pp. 268-271. In George P. Richardson and John D. Sterman, eds. Proceedings of the 1996 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cambridge, Massachusetts. July 22-25, 1996. Available on the World Wide Web at: http://www.tiac.net/users/sustsol.

    Kreutzer, W. Brian, David P. Kreutzer and Janet Gould. 1992. "The Quahog Oil Production Simulator: A Case Study of the Rapid Development of a Management Flight Simulator for Training." pp. 329-336. In: Jac A. M. Vennix, Jan Faber, Wim J. Scheper, and Cees A. Th. Takkenberg, eds. Proceedings of the 1992 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Utrecht University. Utrecht, The Netherlands. July 14-17, 1992.

    Larsen, Erik R. and Derek W. Bunn. 1994. "Modelling Electricity Privatization in the UK." Working Paper W-94-04. London Business School. Sussex Place. Regent's Park. London NW1 4SA. United Kingdom.

    Lyneis, James M. 1985. "Leverage and the Performance of Electric Utilities: How Feedback Assumptions Affect Policy Conclusions." pp. 513-532. In: Merrill E. Warkentin, ed. Proceedings of the 1985 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Keystone, Colorado.

    Lyneis, James M., Carl G. Bespolka, and Ben Tucker. 1994. "Preparing for a Competitive Environment -- The Prospects for America's Electric Utilities." pp. 143-153. In: Proceedings of the 1994 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Stirling, Scotland. United Kingdom.

    Meadows, Donnella H., Dennis L. Meadows and Jørgen Randers. 1992. Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse; Envisioning a Sustainable Future. Post Mills, Vermont: Chelsea Green.

    Meadows, Donnella H., William W. Behrens, III, Dennis L. Meadows, Roger F. Naill, Jørgen Randers and Erich K. O. Zahn. 1974. The Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press.

    Meadows, Donnella H. and Dennis L. Meadows, eds. 1973. Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press.

    Meadows, Donnella H., Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers and William W. Behrens, III. 1972. The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books.

    Meadows, Dennis L., John Stanley-Miller and Roger Naill. 1975. "The Transition to Coal." Technology Review 78(1).

    Mendis, Matthew S., Joseph I. Rosenburg and Douglas M. Medville. 1979. "An Economic Assessment of Labor Supply and Demand in the Coal Mining Industry through 2000." In Proceedings of the Second Miami International Conference on Alternative Energy Sources. Miami, FL: University of Miami.

    Morecroft, John D. W. 1992. "Design of a Learning Environment: The Oil Producers' Microworld.: pp. 465-474. In: Jac A. M. Vennix, Jan Faber, Wim J. Scheper, and Cees A. Th. Takkenberg, eds. Proceedings of the 1992 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Utrecht University. Utrecht, The Netherlands. July 14-17, 1992.

    Morecroft, John D. W. and Kees A. J. M. van der Heijden. 1992. "Modeling the Oil Producers: Capturing Oil Industry Knowledge in a Behavioral Simulation Model." European Journal of Operational Research 59(1): 102-122.

    Naill, Roger F. 1992. "A System Dynamics Model for National Energy Policy Planning." System Dynamics Review 8(1): 1-19.

    Naill, Roger F. 1977. Managing the Energy Transition: A System Dynamics Search for Alternatives to Oil and Gas. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.

    Naill, Roger F. 1976. COAL1: A Dynamic Model for the Analysis of United States Energy Policy. Doctoral Thesis Submitted to the Thayer School of Engineering. DSD #54. Dartmouth College. Hanover, New Hampshire 03755.

    Naill, Roger F. 1973. "The Discovery Life Cycle of a Finite Resource: A Case Study of U.S. Natural Gas." pp. 213-256. In: Donnella H. Meadows and Dennis L. Meadows, eds. Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press.

    Naill, Roger F. 1972. Managing the Discovery Life Cycle of a Finite Resource: A Case Study of U.S. Natural Gas. Master's Thesis Submitted to the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Cambridge, MA 02139.

    Naill, Roger F. Sharon Belanger, Adam Klinger, and Eric Petersen. 1992. "An Analysis of the Cost of Effectiveness of US Energy Policies to Mitigate Global Warming." System Dynamics Review 8(2): 111-128.

    Powell, Stephen G. 1990a. "An Evaluation of Behavioral Simulation Models of OPEC." pp. 878-892. In: David F. Andersen, George P. Richardson and John D. Sterman, eds. Proceedings of the 1990 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

    Powell, Stephen G. 1990b. "The Target-Capacity Utilization Model of OPEC and the Dynamics of the World Oil Market." Energy Journal 11(1).

    Randers, Jørgen. 1973. "The Dynamics of Solid Waste Generation." pp. 165-211. In: Donnella H. Meadows and Dennis L. Meadows, eds. Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers. Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen Press.

    Schwarz, Ingo A. 1978. "A Generic System Dynamics Model Applied to U.S. Coal Mines." Modeling and Simulation 9.

    Senge, Peter M. 1990. The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday Currency.

    Sterman, John D. 1983. "Economic Vulnerability and the Energy Transition." Energy Systems and Policy 7(4): 259-301.

    Sterman, John D. 1981. The Energy Transition and the Economy: A System Dynamics Approach. Doctoral Thesis Submitted to the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Cambridge, MA 02139.

    Sterman, John D., George P. Richardson, and Pål I. Davidsen. 1988. "Modeling the Estimation of Petroleum Resources in the United States." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 33(3): 219-249.

    Sterman, John D. and George P. Richardson. 1985. "An Experiment to Evaluate Methods for Estimating Fossil Fuel Resources." Journal of Forecasting 4(2): 197-226.

    Warsh, David. 1990. "Larry, Curly & Moe in the Persian Gulf: wither Oil Prices?" Boston Globe (November 25): A33.

    Wolstenholme, Eric F. and R. K. Holmes. 1985. "The Design of Colliery Information and Control Systems." European Journal of Operational Research 20(2): 168-181.

    Wolstenholme, Eric F. 1983. "The Relevance of System Dynamics to Engineering System Design." European Journal of Operational Research 14(1): 116-126.

    Wolstenholme, Eric F. 1982a. "Managing International Mining -- A Case Study Concerning Complex Multiple-Ownership Systems." European Journal of Operational Research 9(2): 133-143.

    Wolstenholme, Eric F. 1982b. "The Design and Control of Policies for Underground Coal Clearance Systems." Dynamica 6(2).

    Wolstenholme, Eric F. 1981. "Designing and Assessing the Benefits of Control Policies for Conveyor Belt Systems in Underground Coal Mines." p. 192. In: Proceedings of the International System Dynamics Conference. Rensselaerville, NY.

    Zahn, Eric K. O. 1981. "Dynamics of Coal in West Germany." p. 252. In: Proceedings of the 1981 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Rensselaerville, NY.